Recent political analyses have confirmed that the military confrontation led by the United States and Israel against Iran has backfired, transforming Tehran into a fourth global power competing with the three traditional poles. Observers believe that previous assumptions, which confined power to direct economic and military size, have collapsed in the face of the ability to control vital waterways.
Iran derives its escalating power from its strategic control over the Strait of Hormuz, the artery that feeds the global economy with about a fifth of oil and LNG supplies. With the war entering its sixth week, Tehran has proven its ability to impose a new geopolitical reality that transcends the traditional military capabilities of Washington and its allies in the region.
The joint military campaign launched last February pushed the Iranian side to implement a selective military blockade on the Strait, leading to a decline in shipping traffic by more than 90%. This decline did not result from a complete closure of the passage, but rather from a strategy of intermittent targeting that caused international insurance companies to withdraw their risk coverage.
Sources reported that insurance companies re-priced war risks, making shipping through the Gulf economically unfeasible for many countries. Targeting just one ship every few days is enough to shake the confidence of global markets, transforming the energy issue from commercial contracts into complex strategic challenges facing major governments.
In the context of international positions, French President Emmanuel Macron considered that attempting to open the Strait of Hormuz by military force is an unrealistic step at present. Macron indicated that ensuring energy flow can only be achieved through coordination channels with Iran, which is an implicit recognition of Iran's new influence.
The old order, which was based on the United States securing waterways in exchange for oil flowing at market-determined prices, has begun to effectively collapse. Gulf countries today find themselves compelled to deal with a new reality that requires responding to the party capable of directly influencing the reliability of their exports, which is Iran at this stage.
Attention is turning to Asian powers such as Japan, South Korea, and India, which suffer from deep dependence on Gulf energy linked to infrastructure that cannot be quickly replaced. Any continued disruption in supplies will inevitably lead to global inflation and weakness in national currencies, bringing back memories of the recession crises the world witnessed in the 1970s.
On the ground, American strategies that bet on creating a political vacuum by targeting the top leadership in Tehran have failed. Instead of collapse, Iranian society showed national cohesion, while attempts to mobilize separatist groups in border areas to open military gaps faltered.
Reports indicate that Washington is considering dangerous escalatory options, including the use of tactical nuclear weapons or chemical weapons to break the current military stalemate. These trends come amid the inability of conventional forces to permanently secure navigation against Iranian drone attacks and naval mines.
Meanwhile, Iran continues to exempt Chinese and Indian ships from navigation restrictions, which strengthens its Eastern alliances and weakens Western pressures. Russia, in turn, benefits from rising and fluctuating energy prices, while China strengthens its strategic reserves to face the repercussions of a long war.
Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and prominent officials such as Mohsen Rezaei demanded huge financial compensation and a complete lifting of sanctions as a prerequisite for halting hostilities. These demands reflect the Iranian leadership's confidence in its negotiating position resulting from its control over global energy hubs.
The economic repercussions were not limited to energy but extended to precious metals markets, where the price of gold in regional markets jumped to record levels. This rise reflects the global panic over the conflict turning into a long-term war of attrition that will change the features of the international economy.
A grim scenario emerges, speaking of the formation of an energy 'cartel' comprising Iran, Russia, and China, which could deprive the West of about 30% of global oil supplies. Such a shift would mean a sharp decline in American and European influence in favor of rising Eastern powers in the new international order.
The United States finds itself facing two unpalatable choices: either engage in a long and costly military battle to regain control of the Strait, or accept a new world order in which Iran is a fourth center of power. In either case, the international order that emerged after World War II is undergoing an irreversible change.
Opening the Strait of Hormuz by force is unrealistic, and stable flows can only be achieved through coordination with Tehran.
شارك برأيك
International Study: War on Iran Establishes It as a Fourth Global Power and Reshapes the Geopolitical Order