Amidst the escalating pace of the American-Israeli war on Iran, fundamental questions arise about China's true stance on this raging conflict. While digital platforms are abuzz with speculation about secret Chinese support for Tehran, Beijing remains committed to a policy of strategic ambiguity as a rising power competing with American hegemony in the region.
A recent study of the discourse of the Chinese state channel (CGTN Arabic) revealed that the war received only 20% of the news coverage, which is a departure from the usual media practice in major crises. This trend reflects a deliberate editorial policy that prioritizes economic, technological, and development issues over military conflicts.
Beijing's approach to the Iranian crisis maintains international balance and is not affected by momentary changes, preferring not to slide into sharp public positions. The limited publication allows the Chinese administration greater ability to control political messages directed to the world, which is the essence of its digital diplomacy.
It is noticeable that Chinese media discourse avoids focusing on the humanitarian dimensions associated with victims and destruction, preferring to focus on economic and developmental frameworks. This unemotional approach indicates that China does not place the humanitarian file among its political priorities in Middle East conflicts, but rather acts according to calculations of hard interests.
Although China is the most prominent importer of Iranian oil and is directly affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, it avoids showing any signs of economic weakness. Through this apparent cohesion, Beijing seeks to present itself as a resilient state that does not care about challenges, despite the significant pressures imposed by rising global energy prices.
China's current stance towards Iran is consistent with its previous policy in the Ukrainian crisis, where it is keen not to directly engage in conflicts involving Western powers. This continuity in approach confirms Beijing's desire to observe the attrition of major powers while maintaining a safe distance that guarantees it freedom of movement in the future.
Digital analyses showed that Iran is present as a major political actor in Chinese coverage, but in measured proportions that do not suggest direct bias at first glance. In contrast, the presence of the United States and Israel in positive discourse declines, revealing a hidden tendency to support the Iranian narrative in the face of the Western alliance.
The declared Chinese neutrality represents a characteristic of the closed political system that meets the temporary needs of a rising power awaiting the opportune moment to clearly express its positions. Chinese media sources report events without building explicit positions, which contributes to reinforcing Beijing's image as an objective and rational party far from sharp alignments.
On the ground, the war entered its sixth week amidst unprecedented escalation, including Iran targeting sites in the UAE and Kuwait in response to American attacks. Tehran also announced the downing of three American military aircraft during complex operations, further complicating the military scene in the region.
In contrast, US President Donald Trump threatened to make Iran face 'hell' within 48 hours unless an agreement is reached to ensure the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. International concerns are growing about the US administration resorting to the tactical nuclear weapon option to break the military stalemate imposed by Iranian forces on the ground.
Economically, the war caused violent shocks to neighboring countries, with Egypt recording the exit of huge foreign investments estimated at about 9 billion dollars. The cost of Egyptian gas imports also doubled to 1.1 billion dollars per month, and gold prices jumped to record levels due to global uncertainty.
Iran currently controls almost completely the navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, imposing strict restrictions that exclude only Chinese and Indian ships. Recently, the first Western ship belonging to the French company (CMA CGM) was allowed to pass, in a move observers considered an attempt to ease increasing international pressures.
China's tendency to reinforce the negativity of the American narrative towards the war is clearly evident through the distribution of news trends between positive and negative. While Iran is presented in a balanced manner, negativity towards American and Israeli moves stands out, reflecting Beijing's desire to undermine Western influence in a soft way.
In conclusion, China manages its policy in this crisis with a high degree of caution and media professionalism that ensures it strengthens international confidence in its positions. This crisis reveals that Chinese diplomacy relies on strategic patience, awaiting the moment that allows it to transform from a neutral observer to a dominant player in the new international system.
China follows a policy of ambiguity that hides behind it orientations that are not yet ready to be announced, as its discourse shows a hidden bias towards Iran against negativity towards American action.
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Between Strategic Ambiguity and Cautious Neutrality: How China Navigates its Compass in the War on Iran?