Dr. Fadi Jumaa: Neutralizing the impact of oil on markets may reduce international pressure that could push for an end to the war and remove Iran's power card of threatening energy supplies.
Ayham Abu Ghosh: The step of resorting to strategic oil reserves is important to calm markets, but geopolitical risks remain the most important factor in determining prices.
Dr. Walaa Qudaimat: The move is a clear attempt to influence the global oil market and limit price volatility amid the war and its disruption of global energy supplies.
Dr. Thabet Abu Al-Roos: Trump's move does not guarantee price stability in the long term with the continuation of the war and the inability of the reserves to withstand any major shock.
Mohammed Al-Rajoub: This step reflects an American realization that the war may continue for a long time because countries only resort to this when they expect the crisis to continue for an extended period.
Dr. Amjad Bashkar: This step reflects growing concern about the economic repercussions of the war, not only on the United States but on the entire global economy.
Ramallah - Exclusive to "Al-Quds"-
With the escalation of the war on Iran and tensions in the Gulf region, strategic oil reserves have returned to the forefront of the international scene as a key tool to try and contain the repercussions of the conflict on energy markets and the global economy, as evidenced by statements from US President Donald Trump regarding resorting to these reserves.
Political writers, analysts, specialists, economic experts, and university professors, in separate interviews with "Al-Quds", believe that fears of oil supply disruptions, especially with threats to navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, have led to a significant rise in energy prices, prompting the United States and its allies to seek urgent measures to calm markets and prevent a global economic shock.
They point out that resorting to oil reserves aims to increase supply in global markets and send reassuring messages to investors and consuming countries that energy supplies can be compensated in the event of any sudden shortage due to the war, as well as an attempt to contain the escalating economic repercussions of the conflict, especially given the sensitivity of fuel prices and their direct impact on the global economy and financial markets.
On the other hand, geopolitical risks remain the most influential factor in determining the trajectory of oil prices, given the continuation of the war and the potential for its expansion in a region considered one of the most important centers of energy production and export in the world.
This is confirmed, according to writers, analysts, specialists, experts, and university professors, that the use of strategic reserves represents a temporary measure to contain the crisis, while market stability remains dependent on the course of the war and the future of global oil supplies.
Limiting the sharp rise in oil prices
Dr. Fadi Jumaa, Professor of Political Science at the Arab American University, explains that US President Donald Trump's recourse to strategic oil reserves amid the war on Iran is a decision with intertwined political, economic, and strategic dimensions related to managing the war and its repercussions on the global economy and the American domestic front.
Jumaa points out that, from an economic perspective, the move primarily aims to curb the sharp rise in oil prices resulting from wars and geopolitical tensions in the region, especially with escalating fears of threats to oil supplies from Gulf countries, in addition to the risks facing navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important maritime passages for oil flow in the world.
Jumaa notes that pumping quantities from oil reserves into the market sends a clear signal to global markets that the United States is capable of compensating for any potential supply shortage in the current phase, which contributes to calming markets and limiting price volatility.
Attempt to contain internal American conditions
Domestically, Jumaa emphasizes that the decision is particularly important because fuel prices are a sensitive factor in the political and economic mood of the American voter. Rising fuel prices negatively affect public opinion and can impact the image of the American administration and the ruling party among citizens, especially with midterm elections approaching.
Tools to curb Iranian pressure cards
On the external level, Jumaa believes that the decision carries a direct message to Iran and its allies that the United States possesses economic tools capable of reducing the impact of any attempt to use oil or threaten navigation in the Gulf as a pressure weapon.
According to Jumaa, Washington is thus seeking to weaken what is known as the "energy weapon" and demonstrate that disrupting oil flow or targeting navigation in the Strait of Hormuz will not be a decisive card in the conflict.
Jumaa points out that this step has indirect repercussions on the course of the war, as neutralizing the impact of oil on markets may reduce international pressure that could push for an end to the war due to rising prices, and also removes one of Iran's power cards related to threatening global energy supplies.
Wider scope in managing the conflict
Jumaa affirms that stable energy prices give the United States a wider scope in managing the conflict, whether in continuing military pressure or later transitioning to a diplomatic path.
Jumaa stresses that the use of strategic oil reserves remains a temporary measure that cannot be relied upon for long periods, which may indicate that Washington does not expect a long-term war, as resorting to oil reserves is usually used as a short-term tool to contain crises, not as a permanent solution for managing extended conflicts.
A step to calm markets
Ayham Abu Ghosh, a journalist specializing in economic affairs, believes that the International Energy Agency's move to resort to strategic oil reserves is an important step to calm markets, but geopolitical risks remain the most important factor in determining prices.
Abu Ghosh emphasizes that energy, especially oil and gas, plays a significant role in this war and other crises as they are essential drivers of global industry, and their prices significantly determine the trajectory of the global economy and the prices of many goods and services. Therefore, economic data clearly emerge as a pressing factor in ending the war on Iran or in its continuation.
Abu Ghosh points to significant fluctuations in oil prices since the start of this war, as the Iranian side realizes that it has cards of strength and is using them to the maximum in an attempt to raise the cost to the global economy, whether by controlling the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil imports pass, or by pushing through military steps to reduce production, which will inevitably lead markets to read these risks as a rise in oil prices, raising fears of significant global inflation in addition to a period of recession.
Reassuring markets with inverse steps
According to Abu Ghosh, on the other hand, the United States is trying to reassure markets with inverse steps by sending messages that the war is nearing its end, or by pushing oil-producing countries to increase their production, or by pushing countries to use their strategic reserves.
Abu Ghosh believes that this step can calm markets and lead to relative stability in oil prices, but at the same time, it indicates a relative Iranian success in that its steps in managing the battle are indeed affecting the global economy.
Abu Ghosh points out that the International Energy Agency's announcement to release (400 million) barrels of oil through (32 countries) is the largest strategic operation in the agency's history, and this will lead to a relative calming of markets for a certain period, because this quantity only means pumping an increase equivalent to the world's consumption of oil for about (4 days) or (20 days) of the shortage that may occur from the cessation of supply through the Strait of Hormuz, even if its supply will be through about (120) days as in the American case.
Abu Ghosh explains that this step will contribute to relatively calming markets, but the matter will later depend more on geopolitical risks and the extent and duration of this war. The longer it extends and lasts, the more prices will rise again, and the closer its end or at least the secure supply of oil and gas, the prices will fall or stabilize.
Possibility of agreement with Russia
Abu Ghosh believes that these circumstances will push the United States to one of two things: either accelerating the end of the war with Iran through military or peaceful means, or an agreement with Russia to lift sanctions on it, especially regarding oil and gas exports, because that would be a decisive factor in determining prices.
A clear attempt to influence the global oil market
Political writer and researcher Dr. Walaa Qudaimat explains that US President Donald Trump's recourse to strategic oil reserves usually comes in the context of major wars and crises that lead to disruptions in energy markets and rising oil prices, noting that this tool was previously used during US President Joe Biden's administration amid the Ukrainian war, a measure that was criticized by Trump and his party at the time.
Qudaimat points out that the renewed discussion about using oil reserves in the current phase comes in the context of proposals put forward by the International Energy Agency calling for drawing from oil reserves to mitigate the sharp rise in energy prices.
Qudaimat notes that Trump's recourse to this step reflects a clear attempt to influence the global oil market and limit price volatility, especially amid escalating tensions related to the war with Iran and the potential disruption of global energy supplies it may cause.
Qudaimat believes that the goal of this step is not limited to the economic dimension, but also extends to the domestic dimension in the United States, where Trump seeks to calm American public opinion, which is directly affected by rising fuel prices and their repercussions on living and economic conditions.
Qudaimat indicates that the American administration may resort to additional measures, in addition to using strategic reserves, to ensure the continued flow of oil to global markets and to reduce fears associated with rising prices.
Managing the oil supply crisis resulting from the war
Regarding the repercussions of this step on the course of the war, Qudaimat believes that the American administration seems to be trying to move from managing direct military war to managing the oil supply crisis resulting from it, considering that the energy crisis has become one of the most prominent reflections of the ongoing conflict. Qudaimat explains that this approach reflects an attempt to invest in the repercussions of the war in a way that serves the American role and protects the domestic front, especially since the United States has one of the largest oil reserves in the world.
Qudaimat affirms that this step can also be read within the framework of Washington's attempt to manage the conflict through various means, which may include gradually moving from direct military confrontation to using more flexible political and economic tools, allowing for a rearrangement of the regional scene according to the American vision.
Largest withdrawal operation in the history of the International Energy Agency
Economic expert and analyst Dr. Thabet Abu Al-Roos confirms that US President Donald Trump's move to strategic oil reserves comes amid the escalating war on Iran and its unprecedented impact on rising global oil prices, where prices exceeded $120 per barrel, prompting the American administration to act urgently to calm markets.
Abu Al-Roos explains that the United States decided to pump about 400 million barrels from oil reserves, which is the largest withdrawal operation in the history of the International Energy Agency, with the aim of forming an international safety net that protects markets from sudden price increases.
However, Abu Al-Roos stresses that the actual daily pumping capacity does not exceed about 2 million barrels, which represents 18-20% of the daily quantity, limiting the direct impact of the reserves on markets completely.
A message of reassurance to the Gulf and Middle Eastern countries
Regarding the repercussions of the decision, Abu Al-Roos points to three main dimensions: the political dimension, as it represents a message of reassurance to the Gulf and Middle Eastern countries that the United States is capable of absorbing any shortage in oil supplies and controlling markets. The economic dimension, according to Abu Al-Roos, aims to form a safety net by resorting to reserves, but it is limited in its ability to provide oil for long periods, as the actual reserve is only 415 million barrels out of a total reserve of 750 million barrels.
Abu Al-Roos points to the commercial dimension, which combines the political and economic vision to maintain relative balance in the market.
Resilience of reserves in controlling prices
Abu Al-Roos questions the ability of the reserves to remain resilient in controlling prices for a long time, emphasizing that the reserves are not enough to address the ongoing shock, especially with the continuation of the war and the targeting of oil facilities in Iraq and Gulf countries, as well as obstacles in the Strait of Hormuz. Abu Al-Roos points out that these combined factors may create a new wave of price increases despite the pumping of reserves, reflecting the fragility of global markets in the face of any continuous disruption in energy supplies.
Abu Al-Roos believes that Trump's move aims to calm markets in the short term, but it does not guarantee price stability in the long term, given the continuation of the war and the inability of strategic reserves to withstand any major shock.
Deeper shifts in the nature of the conflict
Academic and researcher in public administration and political science Mohammed Al-Rajoub believes that US President Donald Trump's recourse to strategic oil reserves amid the escalating war on Iran reveals deeper shifts in the nature of the conflict, with its gradual transition to what can be described as an "energy war" and its increasing impact on the global economy.
Al-Rajoub points out that this step confirms that the outcome of the battle will not depend solely on military power, but also on the ability to manage the global economy and control the energy lifeline on which it relies.
Managing wars with economic tools
Al-Rajoub explains that major wars are not only managed with military tools and means, but also with economic tools, foremost among them oil. When energy markets are shaken and oil prices approach very high levels, strategic oil reserves become a political and economic tool no less influential than military power, and from this perspective, Trump's decision can be understood as aiming to curb rising energy prices.
Al-Rajoub points out that strategic oil reserves are one of the most important tools of US economic national security, as they are usually used in emergencies when global oil supplies are subject to significant disruptions or serious threats.
However, resorting to it at this time reflects, according to Al-Rajoub, that the war is no longer just an external matter, but has begun to directly affect the American domestic front and the global economy.
Al-Rajoub explains that the military escalation in the Gulf has led to disruptions in energy movement and rising global oil prices, with the price per barrel approaching high levels due to fears of supply disruptions, especially amid threats related to the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil passes.
Al-Rajoub believes that this reality has prompted the American administration to search for quick tools to contain the market shock and calm economic fears.
Al-Rajoub points out that the use of strategic reserves also carries a message of reassurance to global markets, as pumping additional quantities of oil into the market increases supply and curbs the acceleration of price increases.
According to Al-Rajoub, such steps are often taken in coordination with allies, as the International Energy Agency and G7 countries have discussed the possibility of releasing additional quantities from global reserves to counter market disruption resulting from the war.
The war may continue for a long time
Al-Rajoub believes that this step reflects an American realization that the war may continue for a long time, because countries usually only resort to their strategic reserves when they expect the crisis to continue for an extended period.
Al-Rajoub affirms that the decision reflects a shift in the way the war is managed, so that the confrontation is no longer only military, but has also become economic. Al-Rajoub explains that the American administration is now managing the battle on two parallel levels: militarily through direct strikes, and economically by trying to control energy markets and prevent Iran from using oil as an economic weapon in the conflict.
Al-Rajoub points out that Iran indeed possesses an influential capability on the global economy through its geographical location in the Strait of Hormuz, through which millions of barrels of oil pass daily, as the mere threat of closing the strait or disrupting navigation in it is enough to cause a shock in global markets.
Temporary impact
Despite the importance of strategic reserves, Al-Rajoub warns that their impact remains temporary, as the quantities that can be released represent only a few days of global consumption, and therefore their use may alleviate the shock in the short term but does not address the root cause of the crisis, which is the continuation of the war and tensions in the Gulf.
Three scenarios
Regarding potential scenarios, Al-Rajoub puts forward three main possibilities; the first is Washington and its allies succeeding in pumping sufficient quantities of oil to calm markets and prevent prices from reaching record levels, which would relieve internal pressure on the American administration without ending the war.
The second scenario, according to Al-Rajoub, relates to the expansion of attacks in the Gulf and perhaps the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which could push oil prices to exceed $100 or even $200 per barrel and create a real global energy crisis.
Al-Rajoub points to the third and most complex scenario, which is the transformation of the conflict into a comprehensive economic war, especially if Washington fails to curb prices or protect navigation in the straits. The United States may resort to bolder steps, such as militarily protecting oil tankers or imposing new arrangements for global energy supplies.
Growing concern about the economic repercussions of the war
Professor of Political Science Dr. Amjad Bashkar confirms that developments related to the ongoing war with Iran have begun to clearly reflect on the global economy and energy markets, noting that US President Donald Trump's statements regarding resorting to strategic oil reserves primarily aim to reassure the global market and curb rising oil prices, amid fears of the price per barrel exceeding $100, a level it has already reached amid escalating military tensions in the region. Bashkar affirms that this step reflects growing concern about the economic repercussions of the war, not only on the United States but on the entire global economy.
Bashkar points out that the continuation of the war may open the door to shifts in global energy policies, noting the increasing discussion in international circles about a potential bill or resolution related to lifting or easing sanctions imposed on Russia regarding oil exports.
Compensating for the shortage in global oil supplies
According to Bashkar, such an approach may aim to compensate for any potential shortage in global oil supplies resulting from the war between the United States and Israel on one hand and Iran on the other, especially since the repercussions of the conflict are not limited to Iran only, but extend to the entire Gulf region, which represents one of the most important centers of energy production and export in the world.
Bashkar points out that voices within Russian circles have begun to demand not to increase oil exports even if sanctions are lifted, with the aim of increasing economic pressure on the United States.
Bashkar believes that this stance may complicate global energy market calculations and exacerbate the economic crisis associated with the war.
Economic pressure strategy on the international community
Bashkar notes that Iran's targeting of oil fields in the Gulf, according to what is circulated in political analyses, may be part of an economic pressure strategy on the international community, so that the world is pushed to pressure the United States and Israel to stop the war by affecting global oil supplies.
Bashkar believes that any escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, which is the primary artery for energy movement in the world, could lead to serious repercussions on the international economy.
Bashkar explains that the circulating talk about the possibility of using explosive boats or planting naval mines in the strait could pose a direct threat to navigation and oil supplies, which could lead to significant price increases and deepen the global energy crisis.
Bashkar affirms that the continuation of these developments may ultimately lead to increased international pressure on the United States to stop the war, making it likely that Washington will declare victory unilaterally as a formula for exiting the conflict, similar to what happened in Yemen when the United States stopped its strikes against the Houthis without an agreement or official announcement.