Dr. Ibrahim Nairat
After more than a century of conflict, Palestinians and Israelis are no longer merely adversaries confronting each other on the same land. Instead, they have become two peoples trapped in a historical and political dilemma that appears intractable. Each side carries its own narrative, pains, fears, and national aspirations, yet neither has succeeded in achieving a stable state of security, justice, or peace.
Palestinians continue to face questions of statehood, sovereignty, and national rights, while Israelis live under constant security and political anxiety, despite their state's military, economic, and technological superiority. Despite the differing circumstances of the two parties and the imbalance of power between them, the ultimate outcome reveals a striking paradox: neither side feels it has reached the end of the conflict or achieved lasting stability.
One of the most misleading ideas in this conflict is the belief that one side has definitively won the battle. Some Israelis view their military and economic superiority and extensive international relations as evidence of a historical victory already achieved, and that time is working in their favor. Conversely, some Palestinians view the prolonged nature of the conflict and the imbalance of power as evidence that the Palestinian cause has been lost or that its end is only a matter of time. However, reality refutes both ideas.
If Israeli superiority were sufficient to resolve the conflict, the dispute would have ended decades ago. And if the Palestinian cause had truly been defeated, it would not remain present with such momentum in regional and international politics, nor would it continue to influence the calculations of the region and the world. The mere continuation of the conflict after all these years indicates a different reality: there is no complete victory, and there is no complete defeat.
The prolonged nature of the conflict has created a reality of forced interdependence. The fate of each party has become linked, to some extent, to the decisions of the other. Every attempt to ignore this reality or impose a unilateral solution has only led to new cycles of tension, violence, and instability. Over time, the conflict has ceased to be merely a confrontation between two competing projects; it has transformed into a historical impasse where the lives and futures of the two peoples are intertwined in an inseparable way.
It is a striking paradox that attempts to resolve the conflict by military force have not led to its end. Whenever Israel has sought to impose a final reality through wars or major military operations, it has appeared to achieve immediate field successes, but at the same time, it finds itself facing political, security, and strategic crises more complex than before those confrontations. Military force can destroy the material capabilities of the adversary and reshape realities on the ground, but it has not yet been able to end Palestinian national identity or close the file of the Palestinian cause.
Indeed, many major rounds of conflict have led to results contrary to expectations. Instead of the Palestinian issue disappearing from the scene, it has returned to the center of regional and international attention. And instead of continuous pressure leading to the end of Palestinian demands, Palestinians have demonstrated a continuous ability to endure and reassert their political and historical presence. Thus, Israel has found itself, after every attempt at resolution, facing a constant reality: battles can be won, but transforming military victory into a political end to the conflict is an entirely different matter.
Conversely, Palestinians have not been able to achieve their fundamental national goals or impose their final vision for a solution, but they have not disappeared from the equation nor lost their ability to influence the course of events. After decades of predictions that the issue would decline or dissolve into regional transformations, it remains present and capable of asserting itself on political realities.
Therefore, it can be said that a kind of historical and political deterrence balance has emerged between the two parties. This is not a balance in military power, resources, or control over land, as the disparity in these areas is clear. Rather, it is a balance in the ability to prevent the other side from achieving a definitive resolution. Israel is capable of preventing Palestinians from fully implementing their national project, but it is unable to end the Palestinian issue or turn it into a historical memory. Palestinians are unable to impose their final vision for the conflict, but they are capable of preventing their existence and their cause from being relegated to a closed chapter of the past.
Hence arises the fundamental dilemma. Each side possesses enough power, resilience, or influence to prevent the other's complete victory, but not enough to achieve its own victory. Thus, the conflict continues in a suspended state, where time itself becomes a battleground, and each side awaits the future to achieve what the present has failed to accomplish.
The tragedy lies in the fact that both peoples have enough reasons to fear to perpetuate the conflict, but not enough power to end it definitively in favor of one. Therefore, the region seems to be captive to a closed equation: Palestinians cannot seize what they consider their full rights, and Israelis cannot obtain the complete security and final stability they seek.
However, recognizing this reality does not mean surrendering to it, but rather freeing oneself from the illusions that have governed political thinking on both sides for decades. Perhaps the biggest obstacle to any historical settlement has been the continued belief that time alone is sufficient to achieve what politics has failed to do, or that force can accomplish what successive wars have failed to achieve.
Believing that Israelis live in a comfortable position due to their superiority, or that Palestinians have lost their cause due to their weakness, reflects a superficial reading of reality. Superiority does not mean resolution, and resilience does not mean victory. And between superiority and resilience, an equation has imposed itself on both sides: no one has won enough to end the conflict, and no one has been defeated enough to leave it.
And perhaps this is the most important political truth in the region today. After long decades of confrontation, Palestinians and Israelis are linked by a single political destiny more than many wish to admit. No party can achieve lasting stability by ignoring the existence of the other or waiting for its collapse. Force has been tried, betting on time has been tried, and policies of imposing a fait accompli have been tried, but the conflict has remained.
Therefore, the essence of the impasse is not that one side is merely incapable of victory, but that both are incapable of getting rid of the other. And in this very truth lies the reason for the continuation of the conflict, and perhaps also the key to understanding any future solution to it.
شارك برأيك
Palestine and Israel: Between the Illusion of Victory and the Illusion of Defeat