The world held its breath over the past two days, anticipating a decisive American strike against the regime in Iran, amidst unprecedented political and media escalation, and military movements that suggested the moment of truth was approaching. However, this charged anticipation did not succeed in shaking the firm conviction of reputable research centers and strategic decision-makers, who remained in agreement on one conclusion: the Iranian regime is not on the verge of collapse.
Behind the noise generated across social media, most international research centers — including the Council on Foreign Relations, the Brookings Institution, the RAND Corporation, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the International Crisis Group, Chatham House, the European Policy Centre, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and the Middle East Institute — have confirmed one result: the Iranian regime remains standing and capable of absorbing shocks, and that the overall field and political developments, and the threat of using military force, represent only a new chapter in a long-term conflict whose battles are managed with more complex tools, where a military strike is only a pressure element within a broader system of attrition and hybrid warfare, not a rapid lever for overthrow.
There are multiple reasons that make this conclusion realistic, logical, and more likely.
First: Cohesion of the Power Structure and Deep Ideologization
The role of the solid structure of the regime, primarily the Revolutionary Guard, intelligence agencies, and the judicial system, goes beyond traditional security and judicial functions to form one of the fundamental pillars integrated into the heart of the regime, and its ideological, political, and economic backbone.
The Revolutionary Guard, for example, plays a complex set of security, economic, doctrinal, and political roles. At the security level, it constitutes the first line of defense for the regime against internal and external threats; it is responsible for protecting the political system, managing sensitive internal security files, and confronting protests when they are classified as a “security-systemic” threat, which is the case in the current crisis.
This role is based on a doctrine founded on the sanctity of the principle of “defending the revolution,” and defending the survival of the regime as the survival of the intertwined security institution. This loyalty is nurtured through a cohesive ideological structure, constantly reformulated through cultural and educational institutions, a mobilizing religious-revolutionary discourse, and a narrative of a “besieged state.” Therefore, we are not talking about security personnel, but about ideologized actors who see defending the regime as defending identity, which makes any attempt at defection classified as an “existential betrayal.”
In addition, a network of economic interests protects this ideological loyalty; the Revolutionary Guard plays a pivotal economic role through direct or indirect control over strategic sectors, including energy, telecommunications, construction, and ports, which provides it with a high ability to circumvent sanctions through parallel economic networks. This economic influence makes the survival of the regime a direct interest for military and bureaucratic elites, as collapse means not only loss of power, but also loss of wealth, influence, and legal protection.
Added to this is the political role played by the Revolutionary Guard in Iranian political life, through influencing the selection of elites, drawing red lines for political action, and directing regional and security policies.
The functional roles of the Revolutionary Guard and intelligence agencies are integrated into an intertwined circle: doctrine protects loyalty, economics protects interests, security protects control, and politics protects continuity. This intertwining makes any attempt to separate one of these dimensions from the other almost impossible.
Thanks to this precise equation, a split in the hardline elite becomes extremely difficult, which is a crucial factor in the fall of authoritarian regimes. Most major collapses — from the Soviet Union to the Arab Spring regimes — were preceded by a moment of disintegration or division within the institutions of power.
In the Iranian case, this moment has not materialized; rather, the security agencies have so far shown cohesion and a high capacity for control and loyalty. As long as these agencies remain united in their vision and loyalty, the regime remains capable of resilience, even in the face of suffocating economic and social crises. The cohesion of the regime in the authoritarian Iranian model is not linked to the issue of popular acceptance or Rousseau's model of social contract theory, but rather is based on a Hobbesian approach that prioritizes security over rights and freedoms, where the regime does not need national consensus to continue, but rather the cohesion of the tools of power, which is the condition available until now.
Second: Weak and Disunited Opposition
The geographical and ideological map of the Iranian opposition reveals its fragility and limited capacity to influence; it suffers from organizational fragmentation, political contradiction, and an inability to produce a realistic governing alternative.
The opposition is geographically divided between an internal opposition and an exile opposition. The internal opposition is concentrated in major cities such as Tehran, Isfahan, Shiraz, Tabriz, and Mashhad, in addition to ethnic groups such as Kurds in the west, Baloch in the south, Arabs in Ahwaz, and some Azeri movements. This opposition suffers from decentralization, its focus on human rights issues, and weak leadership and organization, which prompts the regime to adopt a policy of direct repression against it. Despite enjoying social legitimacy, it lacks organized political transformation.
As for the exile opposition, centered in the United States, Canada, and Western Europe, despite its ability to access international media and Western decision-makers, it suffers from weak organizational reach within Iran, which puts it in a real crisis of representation.
Ideologically, the opposition is divided between a fragmented secular liberal current, a declining leftist current, and an ethnic nationalist opposition concentrated in limited areas and unable to agree on unified demands. The problem is not in diversity itself, but in the inability to transform it into a strength factor within a comprehensive political project.
Third: Absence of Strategic Pressure Tools
Symbolic demonstrations rarely overthrow a cohesive authoritarian regime. This requires shifting the conflict from the street to the joints of the state and economy through tools such as prolonged strikes, economic boycotts, and sustained civil disobedience. However, the Iranian experience shows a recurring pattern: escalation, then repression, then decline, due to the regime's ability to cut coordination chains, disrupt the internet, raise the cost of organization, and invest in the discourse of an “external conspiracy” to justify repression.
Fourth: The Parallel Economy as a Tool of Political Control
Iran possesses what research centers describe as an “adaptation economy,” where regime institutions, primarily the Revolutionary Guard, control strategic sectors through parallel economic networks, front companies, and mechanisms to circumvent sanctions. This leads to shifting the cost of economic pressures from the authority to society, while the ruling elite remains protected through monopoly, political protection, and redistribution of privileges.
In light of the above, it is clear that the Iranian regime does not survive by repression alone, nor does it fall by protest alone. The ongoing conflict is not a conflict of a decisive moment, but a long-term war of attrition whose battles are managed with hybrid tools that restrict behavior without overthrowing the regime, and exhaust society without dismantling the power structure. Between the external bet on gradual pressure and the internal bet on institutional resilience, Iran remains stuck in a complex equation: a cohesive regime, a crisis-ridden society, and an opposition unable to transform into an alternative. This equation explains why, despite all the noise, collapse seems far from imminent.
