The Specter of the 'Dahiya Doctrine' Looms: Unprecedented Israeli Escalation Threatens Total Destruction of Beirut

The intensity of military tensions in Lebanon is escalating unprecedentedly, with recent hours witnessing intense Israeli airstrikes targeting entire neighborhoods in Beirut's southern Dahiya. These developments come amidst official and popular fears of a repeat of the 2006 war scenario, in which Israel adopted a strategy of widespread destruction of residential areas.

Beirut's southern Dahiya has currently become a semi-evacuated area, with Israeli evacuation orders continuing to be issued, reaching the Hadath neighborhood and other vital areas. These warnings have specified mandatory displacement routes towards eastern and northern Lebanon, exacerbating the already worsening humanitarian crisis.

Evacuation orders were not limited to the capital but extended to cover a wide geographical strip starting from the international borders up to the Litani River, including the historic city of Tyre. These movements raise serious questions about the occupation's ultimate military objectives amidst ongoing ground operations and intense aerial bombardment.

Observers and political researchers believe that the evacuation operations south of the Litani fall into two contexts; the first relates to paving the way for expanding the ground war, and the second aims to impose a new military reality that goes beyond previous ceasefire understandings. They point out that the cities currently targeted, such as Nabatieh, had suffered massive destruction in previous wars.

Regarding the southern Dahiya, analyses indicate that the occupation aims, through systematic destruction, to exert maximum pressure on the Lebanese government. Through this policy, Israel seeks to push the state to make sovereign decisions against Hezbollah, using the targeting of civilian facilities as a tool for political blackmail.

The 'Dahiya Doctrine' re-emerges as an imminent danger, a strategy that relies on inflicting severe damage on infrastructure and civilians to force the popular base to abandon its political and military choices. It appears that the occupation is heading towards raising the cost of confrontation for Lebanese civilians directly to compensate for its failures in the military field.

Informed sources indicate that Israel's resort to targeting the civilian dimension may reflect a gap in intelligence information related to Hezbollah's military and security structure. While military bases remain fortified, the occupation finds residential neighborhoods easy targets to demonstrate power and achieve media and psychological gains.

Internally, Lebanese positions on the crisis vary, with voices emerging that hold Hezbollah responsible for sliding into a comprehensive war that some believe the country could have avoided. However, others believe that evaluating the results can only be done after the battle ends and the features of the political settlement that may follow this escalation become clear.

Estimates indicate that Lebanon may be part of a comprehensive regional settlement aimed at ending the conflict in the Middle East, but reaching this stage may pass through the gateway of violent military escalation. It appears that the diplomatic path has not achieved tangible results so far, making the field the sole arbiter in shaping the features of the next phase.

On the humanitarian front, the Lebanese government faces enormous challenges in securing the needs of hundreds of thousands of displaced people who have left their homes in the South, Dahiya, and Bekaa. With the expectation of expanding evacuation orders to include new areas in northern Bekaa, fears of a collapse of the national relief system are increasing amidst the difficult economic conditions the country is experiencing.

Israel seeks to directly target the civilian dimension and force the resistance's supportive environment to pay a heavy price through widespread destruction operations similar to what happened in 2006.