US-Iranian Negotiations What After Istanbul... De-escalation or Justification?

All eyes, news, and estimations are directed towards Istanbul, where last-minute negotiations begin and end on Friday. The question here is: Are we facing de-escalation or justification? To answer this question, we must take into account the factors that directly affect de-escalation on one hand, and those that seek justification on the other. Here, I point out that the developments sweeping the region with American mobilizations and Israeli preparations relate to two axioms known to every political science specialist: First, it has become known to everyone that the direction in the Trumpian and global Zionist and Israeli mindset is settled in terms of the strategic and geopolitical view of Iran, and this view is summarized as follows: "There is no place for a resistant Iran, an ally of the Chinese giant and the Russian bear, in the drawn plan for the West Asia and North Africa region"; and second, it relates to the concept of resolving outstanding issues, especially in "Lebanon" and "Gaza," and that this is not possible without cutting off the head "Iran" or at least completely subjugating it to American will and hegemony and its acceptance of the Israeli captain as the primary influencer in the region. Let's return to what we mentioned above about the concepts of de-escalation and justification and the factors influencing each, where we find that there are internal and external factors that strongly impose themselves on the two concepts above, almost to the point of equality, but they lean somewhat in favor of justification due to the nature of President "Trump's" personality, which is indivisible except by one, and grammatically indeclinable. The external de-escalation factors are primarily based on the apprehension of regional countries allied with Washington, which firmly believe that they will be involved in a war they do not want, a war of total loss, and will achieve nothing but further submission to Israeli influence, meaning that the margin of maneuver in the relationship with the American ally will shrink to zero. Therefore, these countries are looking for a way out to stop the rush towards the point of no return. Here, the "Turkish" negotiation plan emerged through the concept of discussing each file separately, starting first with the nuclear issue and presenting it on "Trump's" altar as a gift to stop the escalation, where "Iran" agrees to transfer 60% enriched uranium to "Russia" and freeze its uranium enrichment on its soil for several years in exchange for forming a regional and international framework for uranium enrichment for civilian use, of course, in addition to full monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency inside Iran on the entire Iranian nuclear file. These proposals will be acceptable to "Iran," and it is ready to deal with them fully, but what is the مقابل?!!! What will Iran get?!!! This is the subject of negotiation on Friday, meaning that the condition for Iranian approval will have a مقابل, at a minimum, the lifting of sanctions on oil and gas exports and sanctions related to financial transactions and "Iran's" access to its frozen funds, but, for the Americans, approval is possible if Iran agrees to two issues: the first is to sell its oil and gas in dollars, and the second is "Iran's" agreement to begin negotiations on other files "ballistic missiles, and support for its allies in the region." Thus, the success of the regional factor pressing on President Trump and Iran is linked to what we mentioned above. As for the internal American factor for de-escalation, it is represented by the lack of consensus within the White House administration to go to war, especially since the concept of a limited, decisive, and crushing strike has become unfeasible and will not achieve any of the stated goals; it will not overthrow the regime, it will not stop the nuclear program, and it certainly will not stop Iran's strategic plans in ballistic missile production and others or in supporting its allies in the region, in addition to Iran's threats to turn a limited conflict into a comprehensive regional war, which ended the limited strike plan. But this does not prevent war plans in President "Trump's" mind; he wants something tangible through which he can declare victory, and therefore the internal American factor was linked to the external regional factor, and the negotiation plan in Turkey was put forward on Friday as a last resort that will result in either de-escalation or justification. As for those who seek justification internally and externally, they believe that Friday's negotiations are nothing more than extra time to complete mobilizations and coordinate military operation steps so that they turn from limited to continuous strikes for several days or weeks, and also to create a balance between defense and offense. Therefore, we saw the focus on installing American air defenses in regional countries to increase their reassurance and reduce the intensity of their pressures due to the seismic tremor affecting their interiors, in addition to increasing the target bank and waiting for better weather without winter. Internally in America, the matter is almost entirely linked to President "Trump," who represents the dominant part of the deep state with all its branches, headed by the Zionist-Evangelical lobby, and he will not back down from his decision without at least subjugating the Iranian regime, meaning he wants to exhaust diplomacy to increase internal support. Of course, if diplomacy succeeds in subjugating the Iranian regime, this will be considered President "Trump's" greatest achievement, achieving all his goals without firing a single shot; but there is an influential and pressing internal factor on President "Trump" to deal with the negotiations that will take place in the coming days with "Iran" as a "justification" for the strike, regardless of its outcomes, and this factor is the scandals of what is known as the "Epstein file." The decisive and strongly pressing external factor for going to war against "Iran" is the state of "Israel," and it is ready to agree to support the American-Iranian negotiations according to its four conditions: "stopping uranium enrichment, transferring enriched uranium, setting conditions and monitoring ballistic missile production in terms of their range and number, stopping support for Iran's allies." Otherwise, it will not only not agree, but will inevitably go to strike "Iran" alone, leading to dragging the "United States" to at least defend "Israel," because it will not leave it alone, as it is the guardian of its security according to the American national security strategy set by the "Trump" administration several weeks ago. Thus, the external and internal factors for "de-escalation" or "justification" regarding the potential strike are taking their time in the interaction equation within a specific timeframe, and the nature of the interaction between these factors will favor either de-escalation or justification; and when we talk about the interaction equation, here we mean, first and foremost, President "Trump's" concept of "ego" as a key "element" in that equation, and this clearly suggests that overcoming the "Epstein" story, if possible, and it is possible, has become linked to declaring a complete and flawless victory peacefully or in the bad way "war" as President "Trump" says. There is no doubt that "Witkoff's" arrival in "Israel" today is related to an attempt to convince "Netanyahu, the army, and the Mossad" that President "Trump" has not abandoned the military option, and that dealing with the negotiations will not be in a package deal, but by discussing each file individually, and the beginning will be with the "nuclear file" so that an agreement is reached if it is agreed to discuss the rest of the files in other negotiation rounds, in a "Witkoffian" attempt to reassure "Israel" that there will be no American abandonment of the ballistic missile files and support for "Iran's" allies, and that there will be no agreement on the nuclear file without "Iran" committing to discussing the other files, but the question remains here, will "Netanyahu" and the "army" and "security establishment" be convinced of that?!!! And will the flow of "Epstein" files be stopped? Personally, I don't think so, as the American mobilizations in the region have become an opportune and irreplaceable opportunity for Israel. It remains to review an undeclared and unknown data point, the accuracy of which I personally doubt, but it must be mentioned, where it is said that "Netanyahu sought through President Putin to neutralize Israel from the repercussions of a potential American war behind America's back." Of course, for me, this is out of the question, not only because of the existence of a strategic "American-Israeli" alliance, but the idea of striking "Iran" to be American or joint was "Netanyahu's" idea, which President "Trump" later adopted, just as the American abandonment of its conditions regarding the missile program and the so-called "Iranian regional influence" as demands of its regional allies and its objections to the "2015 agreement" ended due to Gulf pressures to avoid the war option, is also a somewhat exaggerated story, because there are leading political elites in regional countries who informed Washington and President "Trump" that abandoning those demands would strengthen "Iran" in the region and make it appear victorious even over American will. And to summarize based on the above and in my personal estimation, I point out here that the scientific way of thinking and traditional estimations with a president like "Trump" do not apply to the scene in our region; I said before and still do, this region must become an American lake where ships sail with an Israeli captain, and that geopolitical change cannot occur with the revolutionary regime in "Iran," and that "China" cannot be competed with the presence of a country the size of "Iran" allied with it, and that the siege of "Russia" begins by removing the "regime" nail from Iranian geography; "Iran" is a geopolitical pivot state for the great powers, so geography must be shattered to functionally prepare it to disintegrate, and without that, the region will remain torn by influence and the Americans will not be able to completely and fully subjugate it to their influence. I believe that the decision to go to war against "Iran" has been made, and that its postponement the first time was for operational reasons, while it was postponed the second time for political reasons, but it seems there is no such thing as a third time, as matters will be decided next Friday, and everything will depend on the Iranian response and its readiness to market the victory that President "Trump" wants and seeks. Finally, caution is necessary, as the region may ignite before Friday, with the fuel for the ignition being Israeli par excellence and within the concept of miscalculations due to the intensity of mobilizations in the region and the caution shown by fingers on the trigger.