Opinion Polls in Israel: Political Division and Netanyahu's Decline

Israel is experiencing a state of political and social tension in 2026 as the anticipated elections approach. Multiple opinion polls reveal a clear decline in the popularity of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Likud party, alongside a notable advance for the opposition. These polls also reflect a deep division within Israeli society regarding the war in Gaza, government formation, and various internal issues.According to a poll published by Israeli Channel (13) in July 2026, the Likud party led by Netanyahu would secure only 21 seats in the Knesset if elections were held today, a significant decline compared to previous elections. In contrast, a Maariv newspaper poll showed that opposition parties could obtain 61 seats, enough to form a government, compared to 49 seats for the ruling coalition. The poll also highlighted the potential influence of a united Arab list on the political balance of power. Other polls confirm that Likud's average representation ranges between 23 and 25 seats, with parties like "Yesh Atid" or potential alliances including prominent figures from the opposition camp making gains.Regarding the war in Gaza, numerous polls have shown a state of pessimism within Israeli society. In July 2026, only 25% of respondents believed Israel was achieving victory, compared to 15% who considered Hamas to be the victor, while 49% expressed hesitation or uncertainty. A large majority also supports the idea of ending the war, amid a growing feeling that its continuation has not clearly achieved its stated goals.At the same time, some polls revealed an increase in support for hardline rhetoric and positions towards Palestinians, reflecting a rise in right-wing and nationalist tendencies within segments of Israeli society. The results also showed that about half of Israelis prefer the formation of a broad national unity government after the elections, but disagreements over who would lead such a government remain deep, as many opposition supporters reject Netanyahu's continued presence in the political scene, while supporters of the ruling coalition are wary of prominent figures in the opposing camp.Regarding trust in leadership, recent polls indicate a decline in Netanyahu's standing both domestically and internationally, with increasing criticism directed at his political performance and management of the war. There is also growing concern within Israel about the widening scope and prolonged duration of the military confrontation, at a time when support for ceasefire agreements is increasing, despite lingering doubts about their chances of success and sustainability.These data reflect a state of political and societal exhaustion after years of security crises and internal divisions. It appears that a wide segment of the Israeli public is now more inclined towards change, especially given the ongoing trials of Netanyahu and the declining confidence in the current government's ability to address existing challenges. Nevertheless, the political landscape remains complex due to the influence of religious and far-right parties, in addition to the potential role of Arab parties in shaping any future government coalition.Ultimately, opinion polls remain important indicators of general public sentiment, but they are not a final judgment on election results, as they are quickly affected by political and security developments. Therefore, the Israeli scene remains open to multiple possibilities, amidst the deep polarization that Israel is experiencing today.