Dismantling the Saudi-Israeli Normalization Agreement

Marwan Muasher

Perhaps the most important feature of the Saudi-American relationship today is Riyadh's desire to separate two tracks: the desire to strengthen the political, economic, and security relationship with Washington, on the one hand, and the Saudi-American disagreement over the possibility of reaching a normalization agreement with Israel, on the other. While the Trump administration wants to link the two tracks, Saudi Arabia prefers to deal with them completely separately. The main question today is whether Trump will accept this separation.

From the first Trump administration through the Biden administration, US-Saudi negotiations have focused on linking the signing of a normalization agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel to Riyadh receiving three things from the United States: a peaceful nuclear program, a mutual defense agreement obligating America to defend Saudi Arabia in the event of an external threat, and advanced American weapons. However, Saudi Arabia also stipulated that Israel commit to a path leading to a two-state solution. Throughout the Biden years, the United States has continued to insist that a Saudi-Israeli agreement is within reach, despite Israel's public and repeated refusal to accept any commitment to a two-state solution, even a verbal one. Of course, no agreement was reached, contrary to repeated American statements. However, after October 7, and after Israel's clear measures to kill and displace Palestinians from Gaza, as well as its attempt to annex parts, if not all, of the West Bank, it became clear that Saudi Arabia was not willing to accept such a normalization agreement, and that its stance, both declared and undeclared, towards Israel had recently hardened significantly.

Where are the talks today? In light of Riyadh's inability and unwillingness to conclude an agreement with Israel, it appears that it is moving toward concluding bilateral agreements with the United States regarding some of the other Saudi demands from Washington. This month, the US Secretary of Energy announced a separate Saudi-American agreement on a path leading to a Saudi peaceful nuclear program, meaning that this Saudi demand is no longer linked to a comprehensive agreement that includes normalization with Israel. The Trump administration also announced its intention to sign a deal with the Kingdom to purchase advanced American weapons worth more than $100 billion. This is the second Saudi demand, which will also be included in an agreement separate from the normalization process. This means the United States has accepted two of the three Saudi conditions for strengthening relations with Washington. As for the third demand, a mutual defense agreement, which is facing significant difficulties in passing Congress, especially from Democrats, Saudi Arabia appears to have abandoned it at this stage for several reasons. Most importantly, obtaining the two-thirds majority required to ratify the agreement is extremely difficult, especially if it does not include clear progress in the peace process. Furthermore, Saudi-Iranian relations have greatly improved today, reducing Saudi Arabia's need for such an agreement with the United States.

President Trump will visit Riyadh on May 12th. He will likely hear a strong Saudi desire to strengthen relations with Washington and not link it to a normalization agreement with Israel, which Riyadh has come to realize is impossible at this stage. What is currently happening is that Saudi demands for such an agreement are being dismantled and treated piecemeal, without linking them together. The main question remains the nature of the American response. Will Trump be satisfied with the arms deal, as well as Saudi Arabia's willingness to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in the American economy, and abandon his stated goal of including Saudi Arabia in the Abraham Accords, which is possible? Or will he insist on such a normalization agreement and pressure Riyadh to accept it? In the latter case, will the Kingdom maintain its position of rejecting such an agreement in light of Israeli intransigence? If that happens, the US-Saudi relationship may experience some tension in the coming period. Therefore, Trump's visit to the Kingdom next month is of particular importance, the results of which will be reflected not only in the Saudi-US relationship, but also in the entire region.

Source, Al Quds Al Arabi