Trump's fantasy and speculation about the upcoming announcement

Jihad Harb

The media is awash with leaks and news, speculating about what US President Donald Trump will announce this evening or early next week ahead of his Middle East visit. Various headlines, contradictory proposals, and projects range from a partial solution related to the delivery of aid without a ceasefire to a comprehensive agreement spanning several years. All of this news suggests, in my opinion, that there are four possible scenarios that could be present in Trump's anticipated announcement, a reality TV fantasy practiced by the US president and used in his interviews with world leaders, as well as in his announcements and deals. The first scenario is to simply announce a specific mechanism for distributing food to Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, one that aligns somewhat with Israeli proposals and plans. This scenario is supported by the confidential statements made by the new US ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, and the proposed production of a new food distribution institution headed by American David Beasley.

The second scenario involves reaching a prisoner exchange agreement with modifications related to the number and nature of the prisoners, while ensuring the release of Israeli citizen Idan Alexander, who holds American citizenship, and the entry of aid in the same manner as the first phase of the ceasefire agreement signed on January 17, as a transitional period allowing for the transition to the second phase of the ceasefire agreement signed under US auspices. This is supported by the proposal of US envoy Steve Witkoff and the Egyptian proposal, which also extends the US president's desire to stop the war.

The third scenario is announcing American intervention in the Gaza Strip by announcing the appointment of an American administrative governor to administer the Gaza Strip. This would involve forming a government of Palestinian figures to govern the Strip, with Arab countries assuming security responsibility for the demilitarization of the Gaza Strip. Although this proposal has been circulated behind closed doors and through multiple communications, the Arab Republic of Egypt's proposal to form a community support committee (a "local government"), followed by the Cairo Summit declaration on the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip and its civil and security arrangements, constitute an alternative to this scenario.

The fourth scenario involves reaching a "comprehensive" solution related to a relatively long-term truce of five or seven years, including multiple security aspects such as refraining from arms smuggling and manufacturing, the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip, and removing Hamas from power or transforming it into a political party without a military wing. This scenario is supported by Hamas's proposal and the US administration's flexibility in discussing such options.

The realization of any of these scenarios is linked to several inherently contradictory factors. These include the US president's desire to achieve political and economic gains abroad as quickly as possible, his way of thinking, and his personal nature, such as his reluctance to bear the financial burdens of any possible solution or potential scenario. The US president's pragmatism, such as concluding an agreement with Hamas similar to what happened with the Houthis in Yemen, announcing the US administration's support for aid in the Saudi civil nuclear program, initiating negotiations with Iran, and attempting to reach an agreement with the Taliban in 2020, all for the sake of America First. The US president's personal nature, which does not tolerate direct opposition or evasion, may lead to Netanyahu's downfall, following his obstruction of the implementation of the truce agreement sponsored by Trump at the beginning of the year after its first phase was completed. Netanyahu's attempt to obstruct the possibility of announcing the expansion of the Abraham Accords, which he desires during his Middle East visit, is a personal pledge he made to his constituents to stop the war in Gaza, achieve peace, and support stability in the Middle East, on the path to the Nobel Peace Prize.

These include the balance of power on the ground in the Gaza Strip and the Israeli government's ability to achieve its declared goals of eliminating Hamas and its rule and recovering Israeli prisoners, versus Hamas's ability to prolong the war and continue fighting. The interests of regional countries such as Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia also conflict with Israel's desire to occupy the Gaza Strip and displace its population. In addition, the positions of regional countries and blocs and their international commitments, such as the European Union, which will begin discussing Israel's commitment to the terms of their partnership agreement, which is of great importance to Israel in light of the famine afflicting Palestinians in the Gaza Strip as a result of Israeli measures.

Thus, the fantasy of presidential announcements, a reality TV-style event in the White House, does not allow for any prediction of the expected announcement regarding the Gaza Strip and the direction it might take or be achieved. In other words, with Trump, you cannot predict, anticipate, or even speculate, or apparently close your eyes.