Thu 09 Nov 2023 9:44 am - Jerusalem Time

Why does Hezbollah's expansion of the war with Israel seem like "destined"?

By Fares Khashan

It has become clear that the Israeli government has put behind it the pressures it was exposed to from inside and outside, in order to “exploit the opportunity” and strike a strong blow at Hezbollah throughout Lebanon, but what remains ambiguous, for Israel and with it the countries that do not want to expand the scope of the war in the region. It revolves around the ability of Hezbollah, as the most prominent faction in the “Axis of Resistance,” to remain “disciplined” if it becomes clear that the war against the Gaza Strip will enable the Israeli army to actually turn the page on the “Martyr Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades,” the wing Military of "Hamas Movement"!

This question does not arise from nothing, but rather finds its basis in the fact that the “resistance axis” as a whole will emerge defeated, both materially and morally, if Israel succeeds in liquidating the “Hamas movement” in its most prominent strongholds of all, in exchange for the “normalization axis” reaping a major victory, such that His "pragmatism" in dealing with Israel appears rational, profitable, and purposeful!

The platform attacks carried out by the forces of the “Axis of Resistance” against the Arab countries that oppose them will be of no use, because public opinion, in the event of Hamas’ defeat, will sense, for once and for the last time, that summoning wars is nothing more than summoning defeats, destruction, massacres, and losses!

Accordingly, the ability of the “axis of resistance” to continue to have a productive existence, such that it imposes a balanced equation in the region, requires it to either prevent the defeat of “Hamas” or record a “parallel” victory, whatever its cost, through which the repercussions of defeat are mitigated, if it is achieved!

And here specifically, the fear of “Hezbollah” expanding the scope of the war with Israel finds its source, as it is the only organization in the “Axis of Resistance” capable, according to its belief, of exiting the war raising the sign of victory, because the Israeli army will not deal with it as it deals with the “Hezbollah Movement.” Hamas, as this party, in the end, may be a security and border threat, but it is not a fateful or existential danger!

In this case, in order to cover up the defeat in the Gaza Strip with a victory in Lebanon, Hezbollah will find itself forced to fight a war without paying much attention to the human and material cost, as the interest of the “axis of resistance” takes precedence over any other interest.

Accordingly, the United States of America is making every effort to dissuade Hezbollah and its successor, the Islamic Republic of Iran, from this plan, by affirming that “the calculation of the field will not match the calculation of Al-Baid,” just as the “Hamas movement” made a mistake in the analysis that encouraged it to carry out an attack. October 7th - On the cover of Gaza, Hezbollah also makes a mistake in analyzing the extent to which Israel can go with the support of its allies, not only if it decides to expand the extent of the war, but also continues to cling to igniting the border war as well.

In the content of the American messages, Hezbollah, in what it does in southern Lebanon, does not distract the Israeli army from its war in the Gaza Strip, not even by a “mustard seed,” as it says, as the forces that this army has brought into ground operations to date It was able to encircle the Gaza Strip and carry out operations inside Gaza City, which constitute only a small part of the forces it monitored for the originally designed ground battle, and the firepower possessed by the Israeli army will not be affected by the multiplicity of fronts, because the agreements concluded between it and a number of countries are led by the United States. America immediately provides him with what he might lack if he had to fight a war classified as “defensive.”

In the content of the messages that the Americans deliver to Hezbollah, the most recent of which was presidential envoy Amos Hochstein, this party’s expansion of the scope of the war against Israel will, in the end, only produce more losses on the “axis of resistance” and on the countries whose decisions it controls.

But does this type of message affect Hezbollah's decision?

Past experiences bear negative answers to this question, as Hezbollah does not think about direct losses, but rather about indirect losses. If the Hamas movement is defeated in the Gaza Strip, it will be defeated with it, if it does not cover the effects of defeat with another war, as its battle The truth currently is not against Israel, but against the “axis of normalization”, and therefore it is impossible for him to accept this result, but rather he must turn against it, thus paving the way for the “Hamas movement” to triumph over the Gaza result, by allowing it to continue its battle with its support from Lebanon, to say that Israel failed to achieve its goal in Gaza.

The huge problem that everyone is trying to dismantle, at the present time, revolves around one point: If Hezbollah had to choose between defeat and chaos, what would it prefer?

There are those who say that it is a rational party and therefore has no interest in chaos, but it is difficult for some, who have had enough experience, to believe that!

source: Annahar


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Why does Hezbollah's expansion of the war with Israel seem like "destined"?