World capitals are anticipating the start of the G7 summit in France next week, amidst a state of ambiguity surrounding the intentions of US President Donald Trump. Trump is expected to impose his own mood and timeline on the meeting, putting international partners on diplomatic alert.
The American President's mood at this summit is closely linked to developments in the hot files in the Middle East. Both Washington and Tehran, along with the Pakistani mediator, have expressed cautious optimism about the possibility of reaching an agreement to end the conflict after arduous rounds of negotiations.
Liana Fix, a researcher at the Council on Foreign Relations, believes that dealing with Trump in his current term is radically different from how it was previously. She stated in press remarks that leaders in Germany, France, Britain, and the rest of the allies have tasted the bitterness of American economic and diplomatic pressures.
With the exception of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who enjoys special appreciation from the White House chief, most of the group's leaders have been subjected to harsh criticism. Member states fear a repeat of the diplomatic strong-arming scenarios that characterized previous meetings with the Republican President.
The summit comes at a sensitive time for Trump domestically, especially after the Supreme Court's decision to cancel his generalized tariffs. With his popularity declining in opinion polls, the US President may resort to external escalation to strengthen his position before the congressional elections next November.
In a move that raised concern in European capitals, Washington informed its allies of its intention to significantly reduce the American military presence on the old continent. This trend includes reducing the number of aircraft and warships allocated to NATO, in implementation of the 'America First' slogan.
Experts in international affairs believe that Trump will not show any flexibility towards his partners, but will continue his approach based on imposing his will. Jackson Gaines of the German Marshall Fund believes that the US President will try to overcome complex issues by exerting direct pressure to achieve his agenda.
For his part, French President Emmanuel Macron seeks to contain his American counterpart through special protocol arrangements at the Palace of Versailles. The Élysée is betting on Trump's fondness for lavish displays to persuade him to stay and actively participate in discussions, instead of leaving early as happened previously.
Paris went further in its attempts to appease, by adjusting the date of the summit to avoid conflicting with Trump's special occasions in Washington. These adjustments included taking into account the American President's 80th birthday celebrations, reflecting the extent of French effort to ensure the summit's success.
On another note, observers interpreted South Africa's absence from the list of invitees as a concession to Washington, despite official French denial. The current US administration accuses Pretoria of practices that provoke the White House, making its presence a contentious point that was avoided.
Despite the tensions, some of Trump's interests intersect with the topics proposed by France for discussion, especially regarding trade relations with China. Organizers hope that this agreement will be an entry point to calm the general atmosphere among the leaders of the seven major countries during the official sessions.
As for the Ukrainian file, it has witnessed a shift in the balance of power within the summit's corridors compared to last year. While Europeans felt the need to fully comply with American demands in exchange for military support for Kyiv, Ukraine is now less entirely dependent on Washington.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is scheduled to participate in a discussion session in the French city of Evian on the sidelines of the summit. Diplomatic circles are cautiously awaiting this meeting, especially after the stormy previous meetings between Zelensky and Trump at the White House.
Europeans have learned to hope for the best and prepare for the worst in their dealings with the current US administration.
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G7 Summit in France: Trump Imposes His Agenda Amidst International Anticipation for Washington-Tehran Agreement