Behind the Smoke of War: Gaza Faces a Slow Death Amidst Ambiguous Scenarios

Mustafa Ibrahim: Future scenarios are unclear amidst Israeli reports of a US proposal to disarm "Hamas," which has not yet been agreed upon.

Dr. Rifaat Sayed Ahmed: Attention is currently focused on the war on Iran, but any future agreements, if they do not do justice to the Palestinian people, will be nothing more than temporary solutions.

Dr. Riyad Ali Al-Aila: The Gaza Strip is "less of a media priority" due to intertwined crises, but what is happening there is inseparable from regional tensions, including those related to Iran.

Emad Abu Awwad: The absence of the Palestinian issue from the general scene, and no indications of real solutions for the current situation within the Strip in the near future.

Dr. Mukhaimer Abu Saada: What is happening in Gaza is a slow death for more than two million people facing siege, disease, and loss of hope amidst declining international and regional attention.

Exclusive to Al-Quds-

Israel is exploiting the international preoccupation with the ongoing war on Iran, continuing its violations of the ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip, while failing to commit to opening the Rafah crossing as expected from the first phase. It imposed strict restrictions and closed the crossing, which only opened for a limited period not exceeding two or three weeks, before being re-closed with the advent of Eid al-Fitr.

Writers and observers warn in interviews with "Y" that what is happening in the Gaza Strip is a slow death for more than two million people facing siege, disease, and loss of hope, amidst declining regional and international attention due to the ongoing war on Iran. They emphasize the need for international and American intervention to pressure Israel to enable the National Committee for Gaza Administration to carry out its duties and responsibilities towards the Gaza Strip, as well as to increase the number of travelers through the Rafah crossing, increase the number of trucks through the Kerem Shalom crossing, and also to begin the reconstruction process of the Strip.

They pointed out that without a just and comprehensive solution to the Palestinian issue, guaranteeing the establishment of a real and viable Palestinian state, the region's crises will remain unresolved, and any agreements that do not place the Palestinian issue at their core will be temporary and unable to end the conflict.

Complete absence of the picture from the Strip

Writer and political analyst Mustafa Ibrahim confirms that what is happening in the Gaza Strip, in light of the American-Israeli war on Iran, has led to the complete absence of the picture from the Strip, as the world has been preoccupied with the developments in this war.

Ibrahim points out that the United States of America has been preoccupied with the arrangements of what is known as the Peace Council and its various bodies, including the administrative committee for managing the Gaza Strip, all of whose members are still in the Arab Republic of Egypt awaiting permission to enter. In contrast, Israel did not commit to opening the Rafah crossing as expected from the first phase, as it imposed strict restrictions and closed the crossing, and it only opened for a limited period not exceeding two or three weeks, before being re-closed with the advent of Eid al-Fitr.

The number of travelers through the crossing was very limited

Ibrahim explains that the number of travelers through the crossing was very limited, not exceeding about one hundred people daily, most of whom were sick and wounded who are in dire need of treatment abroad, especially cancer patients and those with chronic diseases, accompanied by escorts.

He adds: Between six and ten patients lose their lives daily in Gaza while waiting to travel for treatment, and the actual number may be higher, given that some deaths are not accurately recorded or are classified as natural deaths.

Ibrahim also points out that not all of these deaths reach hospitals, as some cases occur in homes without sufficient documentation, while official figures only show a part of the catastrophe's scale, especially among patients on waiting lists for treatment outside the Strip.

He confirms that the war on Iran and the accompanying international media momentum contributed to obscuring what is happening in Gaza, at a time when Israeli violations have not stopped daily.

Ibrahim stresses that what is happening cannot be considered mere breaches, but rather a continuation of the policy of assassinations and bombing of homes, pointing to the death of nine martyrs during the Eid period as a result of various targeting that affected civilians and police officers.

Israel did not commit to a ceasefire

Ibrahim believes that these developments come in the context of an extended war, despite the announcement of a ceasefire on October 10th last year. However, Israel did not adhere to the stages of the agreement, as the first stage continued for more than one hundred days under the pretext of searching for the body of an Israeli soldier, before announcing the transition to the second stage related to disarmament, contrary to what was stipulated in the international understandings that link this stage to Israeli withdrawal and reconstruction.

Ibrahim adds: The Israeli Prime Minister is placing obstacles to the implementation of these understandings, with American support, which allows for the continuation of military operations and daily violations.

The volume of aid entering is much less than required

In the humanitarian context, Ibrahim points out that the volume of aid entering the Strip is much less than required, as about 600 trucks are supposed to enter daily, while the actual number does not exceed between 150 and 200 trucks, most of which are food aid.

Ibrahim also points to a severe shortage of medicines, especially for chronic diseases such as high blood pressure and diabetes, in addition to their high prices if available. He indicates the absence of fuel entry except in limited quantities allocated to international organizations and essential services, such as operating water and sanitation stations, amidst a severe shortage of drinking water, especially in Gaza City, due to damage to infrastructure.

Regarding cooking gas, Ibrahim explains that the quantities entering do not exceed four to five trucks daily since Ramadan, which led to a reduction in the citizen's share from 12 kilograms to only 8 kilograms per cylinder, which exacerbated the suffering of the residents.

Ibrahim warns that the absence of real international pressure to alleviate the crisis will lead to a worsening of the situation, pointing out that the last ten days of Ramadan witnessed a severe shortage of goods and vegetables due to Israeli restrictions.

Future scenarios are still unclear

On the political front, writer Ibrahim confirms that future scenarios are still unclear, amidst Israeli media reports of an American proposal to disarm the Hamas movement within six months, which the movement has not yet agreed to, meaning the continuation of the siege and restrictions, and the continued division of the Strip, where Israeli forces control between 53% to 60% of its area.

Regarding the administration of the Strip, he explains that the administrative committee has not yet started its work, despite talk of Hamas's readiness to hand over power under conditions related to the fate of about 40 to 50 thousand employees working in the Strip.

Ibrahim also touches upon security arrangements, pointing to talk of forming a multinational force under the name of "Stability Authority," to replace Israeli forces if they withdraw, but the tasks of this force are still unclear, both in terms of its deployment and its role in disarmament.

Ibrahim adds: There is talk of forming a Palestinian police force of about 3000 elements, without clarity on the mechanism of its formation or training, which reflects the complexity of the scene.

Ibrahim concludes his talk to "Y" by saying: The continued absence of international pressure, especially on the United States and Israel, will lead to a more dangerous worsening of the humanitarian and political situation in the Gaza Strip than it is currently.

Shift in the compass of attention

Egyptian strategic expert Dr. Rifaat Sayed Ahmed says: All attention is currently directed towards the bullets and bombs targeting Tehran, which is one of Israel's goals of occupying the region with its internal crises; so that each party is preoccupied with its own issues, whether in Lebanon or Iran, which leads to the gradual isolation of the Palestinian people and the targeting of their infrastructure.

Sayed Ahmed adds: This shift in the compass of attention primarily serves an Israeli goal, not an Arab or Islamic one.

Regarding the conditions presented by Iran for negotiations, Sayed Ahmed points out that they are based on the principle of a comprehensive deal that includes all fronts in one package, including Iran's allies in the region, which was supposed to be discussed in negotiations expected to be held in Pakistan.

Israel is working to deal with each front separately

In contrast, Sayed Ahmed believes that Israel is working to deal with each front separately, as has been the case since 2023, which necessitates not forgetting the Gaza Strip amidst this conflict imposed by Israel and the United States, especially with public opinion preoccupied with Iranian missiles and Israeli and American responses.

The Egyptian expert confirms that putting Gaza back at the heart of attention is essential, considering that the injustice of the people of the Strip and the Palestinian people in general is the core of the issue.

He believes that without a just and comprehensive solution to the Palestinian issue, guaranteeing the establishment of a real and viable Palestinian state, the region's crises will remain unresolved, and any agreements that do not place the Palestinian issue at their core will be temporary and unable to end the conflict.

Sayed Ahmed expresses his concern that any future agreements, whether from allies or adversaries, if they do not do justice to the Palestinian people, will be nothing more than temporary solutions, because the roots of the crisis have existed since 1948.

Israel may turn back to the Gaza Strip

In a related context, expert Sayed Ahmed warns that Israel, after finishing with the Iran and Hezbollah files, may turn back to the Gaza Strip, which could lead to a dangerous escalation reaching the point of committing new massacres. He also points to fears of displacement scenarios towards Sinai, stressing that these hypotheses require attention and caution.

Sayed Ahmed concludes by saying: The core of the crisis in the region is linked to the Palestinian issue, and any solution that does not address this issue radically will remain a temporary solution, and will not achieve lasting stability.

What is happening in Gaza is inseparable from regional tensions

Dr. Riyad Ali Al-Aila, Professor of Political Science at Al-Azhar University, says: What is happening in Gaza is inseparable from regional tensions, including those related to Iran, for several reasons.

He confirms that Gaza has not disappeared from global media, but its coverage has declined, due to escalating tensions with Iran, and even with the US and Israel launching a war on it 24 days ago. At the same time, the media usually tends to shift focus to the latest, which leads to:

First: Reduced spotlight on daily humanitarian crises in the Gaza Strip.

Second: Decline in related international pressure, with a growing feeling among people that the suffering may have "become forgotten." But on the ground, the crisis continues and even worsens, especially regarding patients.

Third: Restrictions on travel and external treatment, in addition to a shortage of medicines and equipment.

Fourth: Slow and complex medical coordination, leading to avoidable deaths.

Fifth: Why do patients die? The reasons are often a combination of: closure or restriction of crossings, lengthy procedures for issuing permits, in addition to the weak health system in the Gaza Strip under pressure, and delayed medical transfers.

Al-Aila points out that "all of the above leads us to say that it is not a medical problem, but primarily a political and logistical one."

Possible scenarios

In light of this, Al-Aila presents a number of possible scenarios to end or alleviate the suffering, but they are not quick solutions due to the war on Iran, and the freezing of the peace plan proposed by US President Trump until the end of the war. The possible paths are:

Scenario One: Partial de-escalation, through temporary agreements to halt escalation, with limited opening of crossings for humanitarian cases, and increased entry of aid.

This scenario is the most realistic in the short term, but it does not solve the problem from its roots, which are essentially political.

Al-Aila adds that Scenario Two: International humanitarian pressure, which relies on stronger intervention from international organizations, leading to the establishment of "safe medical corridors," and accelerating the transfer of patients for treatment abroad.

This scenario could quickly reduce deaths, especially in critical cases.

Al-Aila confirms that Scenario Three: Linking the humanitarian file to political deals, by including the patient and aid file within broader negotiations, and using it as a bargaining chip between parties.

This scenario can achieve results, but it remains fragile and depends on political balances.

Scenario Four: A comprehensive political solution (which is the furthest but most impactful), leading to a broader settlement of the conflict, resulting in a radical lifting of restrictions, with the reconstruction of the health system and infrastructure.

I believe this scenario represents the real solution, but it is the least likely in the short term.

Al-Aila concluded by saying: The Gaza Strip has not and will not disappear, but it has become "less of a media priority" due to intertwined crises, and specifically the war launched by the United States and Israel on Iran, which is still ongoing. The suffering of patients has increased, which is a direct result of this complex political reality. However, the closest practical hope currently is to improve humanitarian access, especially medical, through international pressure and partial agreements, even if the crisis is not fully resolved.

Absence of the Palestinian issue from the general scene

Emad Abu Awwad, an analyst specializing in Israeli affairs, believes that the Palestinian issue, and not just Gaza, has been absent from the general scene.

He says if we focus specifically on the Gaza Strip, it is suffering from increasing problems related to travel and the entry of goods, in addition to its absence from public discussion, and the continuation of a stalemate in the situation.

Abu Awwad adds: The series of assassinations witnessed last month, along with the major regional event of the war with Iran, contributed to covering up the Palestinian issue, especially what is happening in the Gaza Strip, as well as the attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank by settlers.

Analyst Abu Awwad believes that even if the war with Iran stops in the coming period, Israel may escalate the confrontation with Lebanon, given its discomfort with stopping the war under current circumstances. Therefore, it may seek to cover that up by opening another front.

Abu Awwad warns that this trend means the Gaza Strip will remain in a state of stagnation and stalemate, with a gradual decline in various aspects of life.

He explains that we may witness a complete ban on travel from the Strip abroad, and a decline in the entry of goods, in addition to a decrease in their quality, which will exacerbate the suffering of the residents amidst the ongoing regional war.

Abu Awwad also points out that the Gaza Strip is even absent from media coverage in major media outlets.

Abu Awwad confirms that he does not currently see any immediate scenarios that would alleviate the suffering of the residents, as long as the regional war continues.

Abu Awwad adds that there is one scenario that might open the door to solutions, which is Israel entering a state of attrition on the Iranian and Lebanese fronts, leading to its retreat, and then opportunities may arise to address a number of issues, including the situation in the Gaza Strip.

However, Abu Awwad confirms that in the short term there are no indications of real solutions for the current situation within the Strip.

Worsening suffering in the Strip

Dr. Mukhaimer Abu Saada, Professor of Political Science at Al-Azhar University in Gaza, says: Since the American-Israeli attack on Iran on February 28th last year, international and regional attention to the Gaza file and the daily humanitarian suffering in the Strip, which worsened after October 7, 2023, has declined.

He adds: Israel closed the Rafah crossing, which was agreed to be opened after the formation of the Peace Council and the establishment of the National Committee for Gaza Administration in January of this year.

Abu Saada believes that the closure of the crossing caused the death of some patients who are in dire need of medical service outside the Gaza Strip, such as cancer patients, as well as war wounded, whose numbers were estimated by the World Health Organization at about 18,500 patients and injured.

Abu Saada also points to a decrease in the number of trucks entering from the Kerem Shalom crossing to supply the Strip with food, medicine, fuel, and cooking gas. He notes that all of this has led to a worsening of the daily humanitarian suffering of Palestinians.

Abu Saada confirms that despite the recent reopening of the Rafah crossing, the numbers are still very small compared to the number of people who need treatment or to return to the Strip.

Abu Saada expresses regret that Gaza is no longer making international and regional headlines due to the war on Iran and the ongoing confrontations in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah.

He says: What is required is international and American intervention to pressure Israel to enable the National Committee for Gaza Administration to carry out its duties and responsibilities towards the Gaza Strip, as well as to increase the number of travelers through the Rafah crossing, and to increase the number of trucks through the Kerem Shalom crossing, and also to begin the process of rebuilding and reconstructing the Strip.

Abu Saada believes that what is happening in Gaza is a slow death for more than two million people facing siege, disease, and hopelessness.