Writer and political analyst Amir Makhoul believes that the results and repercussions of the ongoing military confrontation between the American-Israeli alliance and Iran will determine the features of the future international system. Makhoul explained that this war, which erupted on February 28, transcends its immediate geographical objectives to become a struggle to consolidate a unipolar system and prevent the rise of competing international powers.
Makhoul pointed out that the United States views Iran as a crucial geopolitical link that hinders its projects of hegemony over waterways and global energy supply routes. In this context, Israel emerges as an advanced striking force fully integrated into the American strategy, making the current war a direct rebound of the events of October 7 and an expansion of the conflict in Gaza to a comprehensive regional scale.
On the ground, the halt of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz entered its tenth day, leading to severe disruptions in oil prices, which ranged between $86 and $119 per barrel. These developments come amidst widespread Iranian responses, including the launch of more than 2,000 missiles and drones, resulting in human losses among Israeli and American forces, following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Regarding regional security, Makhoul believes that the war exposed the falsehood of claims that American bases protect Gulf states, proving instead that they are a source of instability and direct targeting. He warned that the peoples of the region are being used as shields for these bases, which may push regional countries in the future to reconsider the presence of these military installations on their territories.
Concerning regional relations, Makhoul expected that this war would push Gulf states to mend fences with Tehran to protect their common commercial and oil interests in 'OPEC'. He affirmed that provocative Israeli actions have brought the 'Abraham Accords' into question and doubt, especially with Tel Aviv's attempts to drag the region into a conflict that does not serve its stability.
On the Palestinian front, Makhoul warned that the Palestinian cause is often the first victim of regional wars waged by Israel. Recent days have seen the killing of 6 Palestinians in the West Bank, five of them by settler gunfire, who have escalated their attacks to more than 109 since the start of the confrontation with Iran.
The political analyst stressed that Israel is exploiting regional preoccupation to undermine the foundations of life and political entity in the West Bank and occupied Jerusalem. This policy, according to Netanyahu's doctrine, aims to prevent geographical linkage between Palestinian territories and impose full sovereignty to ensure that a Palestinian state does not emerge in the future.
Despite the challenges, Makhoul called for adherence to the 'two-state solution' as it enjoys international legitimacy and UN resolutions that constitute a source of legal strength for Palestinian rights. He considered that the failure of military wars to achieve their political goals always brings the issue of Palestine back to the forefront as a fundamental condition for achieving any lasting stability in the Middle East.
Domestically in the United States, opinion polls showed increasing public opposition to military action, with 53% of Americans expressing their rejection of the war. Nevertheless, Washington continues to strengthen its military presence, recently requesting interceptor drones and experts from Ukraine to protect its bases in Jordan from ongoing missile attacks.
Makhoul concluded that Israeli policy based on security and military solutions does not end conflicts but rather increases their permanence and expands their scope. He affirmed that the strategic alliances Israel builds with powers outside the Arab and Islamic sphere aim to impose a regional encirclement, which requires a unified Palestinian and Arab strategy to confront these existential challenges.
The resolution of the Palestinian issue remains the basis for regional stability and security, and adherence to international legitimacy is the source of strength in the face of Israeli denial.
שתף את דעתך
Palestinian Analyst: Outcomes of Regional War Determine Fate of 'International Polarity' and Palestinian Cause