Turkey in Israel's Crosshairs: A Reading of Post-Iran Scenarios

Fierce discussions are escalating in political and security circles about the features of the phase that will follow the Israeli-American confrontation with Iran, with a fundamental question emerging about which party will fill the regional vacuum. Data indicates that the Israeli occupation is placing Turkey at the forefront of its future targets, seeking to impose complete hegemony over the region and prevent any regional power from obstructing its expansionist projects.

Ankara formulated its position on the recent escalation with extreme caution, expressing concern about the mutual attacks without sliding into direct condemnations that might close the doors to mediation. Despite Turkey remaining unaffected by direct military impact so far, the Turkish leadership realizes that long-term repercussions could directly and unprecedentedly affect its national security.

The hypothesis of targeting Turkey is based on a series of official statements issued by occupation leaders, foremost among them Isaac Herzog, who affirmed that the goal goes beyond changing the Iranian regime to include a complete reshaping of the Middle East. Benjamin Netanyahu further reinforced these fears by speaking of forming new axes targeting active powers in the region, of which Turkey is an essential part.

In a related context, former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant considered Turkey a strategic challenge that surpasses the Iranian threat, calling for the necessity of preparing to confront it. This vision aligns with Israel's inclusion of Turkey in its list of threats since 2021, and the recommendations of security committees to prepare for a potential military clash in the coming years.

Israel does not appear to be alone in this trend, as statements by former US Ambassador Mike Huckabee about supporting complete Israeli control over the region reflect aspects of the Trump administration's policy. These trends are supported by Western press reports explicitly calling for preventing Turkey from filling any vacuum that might result from a decline in Iranian influence in the region.

On the ground, Israel has begun to modify its security doctrine by returning to the 'Periphery Doctrine' which aims to encircle major countries in the region and weaken them from within. This is clearly evident in attempts to fuel ethnic and sectarian conflicts, target the Turkish presence in Syria, and seek to impose buffer zones that serve Israeli interests.

Israeli incitement has taken an institutional character through the formation of alliances in the Eastern Mediterranean including Greece and Cyprus, primarily aimed at encircling Ankara and forming a joint rapid intervention force. Netanyahu has sought to expand this axis to include Asian powers and Arab countries, in an attempt to isolate Turkey and deprive it of its maritime and geographical influence.

Observers believe that any imbalance in the balance of power resulting from the weakening of Iran will serve the interests of the 'Greater Israel' project, which does not recognize existing international borders. Ankara fears that the division of Iran or a change in its regime could reignite the Kurdish issue on its southern and eastern borders, threatening the 'Turkey without Terrorism' project, which has made significant strides.

The Turkish leadership realized the magnitude of this threat early on, with President Erdogan openly stating that Israeli ambitions could reach Turkish borders in a short time. The Turkish Parliament held closed sessions to discuss Israeli threats, while Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warned against the occupation's attempts to drag the region into an extended war that would exhaust its powers.

Ankara has effectively begun implementing a comprehensive defensive plan that included building shelters, fortifying the home front, and developing advanced missile and defense systems to confront any potential aggression. It also deployed F16 fighters in Northern Cyprus, sending a clear deterrent message to the tripartite alliance led by Israel in the Mediterranean basin.

Despite Turkey's inherent strength and its membership in NATO, analysts warn against relying on this immunity amidst the fluctuations of American politics and the instability of successive administrations' positions. Betting on international protection could be a losing gamble in the face of an American administration that might sacrifice its allies for geopolitical gains or major deals.

Experts indicate that targeting Turkey may not initially take the form of traditional military confrontation, but may rely on hybrid means including economic blockade and inciting internal chaos. The weapon of refugees and economic pressure also emerge as potential tools to weaken the Turkish state from within before moving to more aggressive stages.

The project to weaken Turkey is not just media 'propaganda,' but a plan that is crystallizing through military alliances and intelligence plans that are constantly updated to suit changing circumstances. Historical facts confirm that countries that believed they were immune to targeting were the next victims as soon as the international balance of power shifted.

In conclusion, Turkey finds itself today facing an existential challenge that requires internal cohesion and broad regional coordination to thwart the Israeli 'Periphery Doctrine' plans. The lesson lies in taking threats with utmost seriousness and working to build a self-deterrent force capable of protecting national sovereignty, away from reliance on volatile international alliances.

Israel is playing the semi-final with Iran, and the final will be with Turkey.