Five Potential Scenarios: How Will the War on Iran Shape the Future of the Gaza Strip?

The pace of the comprehensive Israeli-American war against Iran is escalating, entering its seventh day amidst widespread regional and international anticipation for the outcomes of this direct confrontation. In this context, the eyes of the Israeli occupation are turned towards the Gaza Strip, to monitor the effects of this confrontation on the Palestinian factions that have been suffering from an ongoing war of annihilation for more than two years, which opens the door to questions about the fate of Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

Tzachi Hanegbi, the former head of the Israeli National Security Council, affirmed that the future of Palestinian organizations in Gaza is organically linked to the results of the war in Tehran. Hanegbi explained that the Iranian regime is now fighting for its survival after the martyrdom of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Commander Mohammad Pakpour, indicating that the fall of this regime will inevitably mean drying up the sources of strategic and financial support that Hamas has absolutely relied on since 2007.

Israeli analysts believe that the first scenario is the 'unconditional surrender' of the Iranian regime, similar to what happened at the end of World War II. In this case, Iran will be subject to an international or local administration loyal to Washington, which will lead to a complete cessation of military and financial support for Palestinian factions, and the beginning of a coercive disarmament process in the Gaza Strip under the name 'New Gaza'.

The second scenario revolves around an 'internal coup' led by the Iranian masses with the support of the opposition abroad and the United States. With the Revolutionary Guard losing its leaders and headquarters as a result of intensive air raids, state institutions may collapse and a transitional authority may be formed that completely severs its ties with resistance movements in the region, leaving Hamas and Islamic Jihad in complete political and field isolation.

The third scenario emerges as a 'unilateral victory' option, where US President Donald Trump declares the end of operations after destroying Iran's military and nuclear infrastructure without completely overthrowing the regime. Despite the authority remaining in Tehran, the collapse of the economy and the loss of air defenses will render it unable to continue funding its regional proxies, which weakens Hamas's ability to military resilience in Gaza.

In contrast, the fourth scenario speaks of a 'comprehensive diplomatic agreement' in which the new Iranian leadership is forced to make painful concessions to ensure its survival, including dismantling the nuclear and missile program. This agreement includes an Iranian commitment to cut all contacts with Palestinian factions, which will force Hamas to accept disarmament demands in exchange for engaging in international reconstruction plans promoted by Trump.

The fifth and final scenario assumes 'war failure' to achieve its strategic objectives, which gives Iran and its allies an incentive to continue the confrontation. In this case, Hamas may succeed in maintaining its status as an armed resistance movement with renewed Iranian support, which will necessarily lead to renewed direct military confrontations with the Israeli army inside the Gaza Strip to overthrow the movement's authority.

On the ground, reports indicate that the war has cost the Israeli economy about 9.4 billion shekels weekly, while Washington is incurring a billion dollars daily. While countries like Spain and Portugal refuse to allow their bases to be used for attacks, naval units from France, Germany, and the Netherlands are participating in operations in the Eastern Mediterranean, reflecting the complexity of the military and political scene surrounding the region.

In conclusion, Trump's repeated condition of disarming Gaza remains the biggest obstacle to any future settlement for the Strip, as the war on Iran places Hamas leaders at a historic crossroads. Either accept the new regional transformations and engage in the path of disarmament, or bet on the resilience of the Iranian axis despite the severe blows it has received in recent days.

Gaza's eyes are turned towards Tehran, and the war against Iran will have a decisive impact on the future of Palestinian organizations; the survival or fall of the Iranian regime will determine the fate of Hamas.