Regional War Repercussions on Energy Markets: Between Sanctions on Moscow and Global Oil Pressures

Washington – Said Arikat – 3/7/2026

News Analysis

Global energy markets are experiencing a highly turbulent phase amidst the increasing overlap between geopolitical conflicts and major economic decisions. In this context, Washington announced that recent measures related to Russian oil are not aimed at easing restrictions on Moscow, but are limited to dealing with shipments still en route to Russia, in an attempt to contain market disruption without a fundamental adjustment to the sanctions regime.

This announcement coincided with statements by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Friday, in which he indicated that the US administration is considering the possibility of lifting sanctions on additional quantities of Russian oil. This direction comes just one day after Washington temporarily allowed India to purchase Russian oil shipments stranded at sea, a move that reflects a clear attempt to increase oil supply in global markets experiencing sharp price increases.

These developments coincide with escalating tensions in the Middle East, where the US-Israeli war on Iran and retaliatory attacks launched by Tehran in the Gulf region have led to widespread disruption in the international energy and transport sectors. These disruptions culminated in a near halt to movement in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important maritime passages for oil transport in the world, raising significant concerns about the stability of global supplies.

These developments were quickly reflected in prices, as crude oil prices rose by 8.5% on Friday, marking an increase of nearly 30% in one week. This rise came after US President Donald Trump's statement that "unconditional surrender of Iran" is the only way to end the Middle East war, a statement that heightened global market fears about the potential for the conflict to expand.

In an interview with "Fox Business," Bessent explained that there are hundreds of millions of barrels of sanctioned crude oil at sea, noting that lifting restrictions on some of them could provide additional supplies to markets. However, Washington stressed that these steps do not reflect a change in its policy towards Moscow or its stance on the war in Ukraine, but rather fall within temporary measures to alleviate pressure on global and domestic markets.

Bessent added that the Treasury Department will continue to take measures aimed at easing tension in the energy market during the conflict, indicating the growing concern within the US administration about the repercussions of rising oil prices on the global economy and on American consumers at home.

In contrast, Kirill Dmitriev, economic advisor to the Kremlin, indicated that he is discussing this issue with the United States, asserting via the "X" platform that Western sanctions have harmed the global economy as much as they targeted Russia.

On Thursday, the US government announced a temporary easing of some sanctions to allow the sale of Russian oil stranded at sea to India. It clarified that these transactions, including those conducted via vessels listed on sanctions lists in various sanctions regimes, are permitted until the end of April 3, 2026.

This step reflects a delicate balance that Washington is trying to maintain between continuing political and economic pressure on Moscow on the one hand, and preventing a sharp shock in global energy markets on the other, at a time when geopolitical risks are increasing and the calculations of supply and demand in the international oil market are becoming more complex.

These developments reveal a paradox in US policy towards Russia, as Washington tries to maintain the sanctions regime as a tool of political pressure, while at the same time being forced to practically ease some restrictions to avoid a global energy crisis. A sharp rise in prices could negatively impact the US economy itself, especially given the sensitivity of domestic markets to fuel prices. Therefore, these measures appear to be more of a tactical management of the crisis, allowing for a temporary increase in supplies without officially acknowledging the easing of sanctions.

The Strait of Hormuz crisis once again confirms the fragility of the global energy system in the face of military conflicts in the Middle East. The mere disruption of navigation in this vital passage can push oil prices to record levels within a few days. This shows that markets react not only to the actual volume of supplies, but also to anticipated risks. Therefore, any additional military escalation in the region could push major consumer countries to search more quickly for long-term strategic alternatives.

On the other hand, this crisis gives Russia an opportunity to highlight its narrative that Western sanctions harm the global economy as much as they target Moscow. Allowing the sale of Russian oil stranded at sea, even if temporary, reflects a practical acknowledgment that excluding large quantities of Russian crude from the global market is not easy. Furthermore, continued demand for it from countries like India demonstrates that energy considerations often outweigh political calculations in the international economic system.