Political and security circles in Tel Aviv are witnessing a remarkable shift in identifying sources of existential threat, with former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's statements serving as a strong indicator of this change. Bennett believes that Turkey, backed by Qatari funding, has begun to displace Iran from its position as Israel's primary strategic threat, reflecting concern over the emergence of a renewed conflict with an adversary possessing modern tools of power and a thriving economy.
For decades, Israeli security concerns have focused on the Shiite axis led by Tehran, its nuclear program, and its military proxies in the region. However, the new reading indicates the rise of a Sunni axis led by Ankara, a NATO member, which possesses geopolitical ambitions that transcend traditional boundaries, placing Israel before a more complex challenge than the traditional confrontation with Iran.
International politics expert, Meliha Altunışık, confirms that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan possesses a superior ability to transform ideology into effective political leverage. Unlike the internationally isolated Iranian model, Turkey adopts an approach that blends political pragmatism with ideological foundations, making its actions unpredictable and difficult to contain for decision-makers in Israel.
From the perspective of Israeli strategists, the threat extends beyond the Turkish state to include a bilateral alliance with Qatar, accused of spreading Muslim Brotherhood ideology and providing political and financial cover for resistance movements. This influence extends to sensitive issues in Syria and the Gaza Strip, with continuous attempts to influence regional balances and win over major Arab powers away from the path of normalization with Israel.
Concerns arise from the scenario of a 'tripartite axis' that could bring together Turkey, Qatar, and Pakistan, which would completely change the strategic map given Islamabad's nuclear capabilities. International experts believe that Turkey's success in solidifying these alliances would mean that Israel would not only face missiles launched from Tehran but would also confront an organized Sunni world possessing strategic deterrent tools.
Economically, the confrontation escalated to a breaking point after Ankara's decision in May 2024 to impose a comprehensive trade ban on Israel. This measure, which included vital sectors such as cement and aluminum, marks the first time Turkey has used its economic power as a G20 nation to impose comprehensive political sanctions, disrupting Israeli trade calculations.
Israeli Foreign Minister, Israel Katz, considered Turkey's actions a sacrifice of economic interests to support Hamas, but analysts see a deeper message. The Turkish boycott reminds Israel that Ankara is not afraid to use its extensive economic influence in Europe and Asia as a tool of political pressure, which doubles the cost of hostility with it.
The current animosity carries deep historical dimensions related to the Ottoman legacy in Palestine, which Erdoğan constantly evokes in his political speeches to portray Turkey as a protector of holy sites. Academics believe that this historical resonance grants Turkish actions a cultural legitimacy in the Arab region that Iran lacks, making the Turkish discourse more acceptable and influential in the Islamic street.
The fundamental question remains whether classifying Turkey as a 'coming Iran' is a realistic assessment or merely a political provocation aimed at preempting Turkish expansion. While some warn that exaggerating this threat could push Ankara towards more radical alliances, the only certainty is that Israel has come to fear the 'credibility' of the Turkish adversary, which combines military power with international integration.
Turkey combines pragmatism and ideology, making it a credible and unpredictable party at the same time.
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Turkey as an Alternative Strategic Threat: Is Ankara Becoming a 'New Iran' in Israeli Calculations?