Trump-Netanyahu Meeting.. The Second Phase of the Gaza Agreement Tops the Hot Files

Dr. Dalal Araqat: Trump-Netanyahu meeting an opportunity to direct a message expressing the official Palestinian position in the absence of direct communication with the American administration
Yasser Mana: Gaza agreement may proceed partially and conditionally with high potential for stumbling at any moment and Israeli-American divergence over agreement priorities
Adnan Al-Sabah: The United States and the occupation state are heading towards seeking "proxies" to implement goals on their behalf through creating internal contradictions and local conflicts
Dr. Omar Rahal: Gaza agreement will remain "stagnant" as it neither officially collapses nor actually progresses and stays in a gray area interspersed with Israeli evasions
Fayez Abbas: Netanyahu will try to divert attention from the Gaza file and push to focus on the "Iranian threat" which leads to marginalizing the suffering of the sector
Talal Awaql: Netanyahu seeks to convince Trump to "poison" the transition to the second phase of the agreement and give him the green light to wage war on Lebanon and the possibility of striking Iran


The world awaits the upcoming meeting between US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which is seen as a sensitive station for managing hot files in the Middle East, at the forefront of which is the Gaza sector, the Iranian file, and the Syrian and Lebanese arenas.
Books and political analysts, specialists, and university professors, in separate talks with "ے", indicate that the meeting focuses on transitioning to the second phase of the Gaza agreement, amid clear divergence between Washington and Israel over implementation priorities, with American readiness to move towards reconstruction and disarmament in exchange for Israeli stumbling in committing to the conditions of the next phase.
The books, analysts, specialists, and university professors point out that Netanyahu deliberately uses evasion and maneuvers, whether through expanding settlement in the West Bank or strengthening security control, in an attempt to postpone any substantial political commitments.
And they see that the ceasefire agreement in Gaza remains fragile and limited in its impact, with selective and temporary steps implemented, which reflects that negotiations are proceeding within a gray area.

Ideological-strategic partnership and integration of interests

Professor of Diplomacy and Conflict Resolution at the Arab American University, Dr. Dalal Araqat, believes that the upcoming meeting on Monday between former US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cannot be read as a passing political meeting, but comes within a relationship that transcends circumstantial alliance to an ideological-strategic partnership based on integration of interests and exchange of roles.
And she explains that the nature of the relationship between the two sides makes it likely to prioritize the "deal mentality" over the logic of comprehensive political solution, especially regarding the Gaza sector.
According to Araqat, Trump may deal with the war on Gaza from the angle of "pacifying conflicts" rather than addressing them radically, aiming to open the way for broader regional deals, at the forefront of which is reviving what is known as the Abraham Accords.
And Araqat points out that any possible American pressure on Netanyahu to reduce the pace of the war will not be driven by humanitarian or legal considerations, but by a desire to achieve a marketable political achievement domestically and internationally.
And Araqat notes that the previous personal differences between Trump and Netanyahu are likely to recede in the face of political pragmatism, where Trump may re-utilize Netanyahu as a tool to pass a vision that serves Israeli strategic interests, including consolidating security control and imposing permanent facts on the ground, in exchange for phased military calm that alleviates political and financial burdens on the United States.
And Araqat warns that the meeting may form a political cover for Netanyahu that allows him to buy time and maneuver, whether through expanding settlement in the West Bank or deepening demographic changes, alongside diplomatic discourse that suggests openness to solutions without actual engagement in a serious political path.
And regarding the ceasefire agreement in the Gaza sector, Araqat cautiously doubts its ability to endure.
And Araqat clarifies that Netanyahu deals with the ceasefire agreement in the Gaza sector as a tool for time management rather than an entry to settlement, likely to achieve only the first phase, especially what concerns releasing prisoners, with delaying the transition to a second phase that requires comprehensive withdrawal and permanent cessation of war.
And Araqat notes that any agreement that does not address the core of the conflict represented by occupation will remain fragile, amid readiness of Israeli security pretexts to breach understandings.
And she affirms that marginalizing the Palestinian side as an independent political partner constitutes one of the most dangerous elements of weakness in any agreement, warning against reducing Gaza to a "managed humanitarian file" instead of being a national liberation issue, which makes any understanding susceptible to stumbling at the first serious political test.
She also affirms that the Trump-Netanyahu meeting constitutes an opportunity for Palestinians to direct an official message expressing the official Palestinian position, amid the absence of the official Palestinian voice and the absence of direct communication channel with the American administration.
And Araqat explains that the future of the Palestinian cause, whether regarding ceasefire or Gaza sector or West Bank, is being drawn in the White House or in regional capitals without the presence of the Palestinian side, considering that this reality requires, at least, directing an official Palestinian message before the meeting convenes clarifying the Palestinian position clearly.
And Araqat affirms that this message must include confronting the reality and facts imposed by occupation on the ground, noting that despite previous American statements rejecting annexation of the West Bank, what is actually happening is the escalation of settlement, which constitutes actual annexation of the West Bank.

Gaza agreement may proceed partially and conditionally

The writer and researcher in Israeli affairs, Yasser Mana, clarifies that the Gaza agreement may proceed partially and conditionally, amid high potential for stumbling at any moment, as a result of deep political and security differences surrounding its implementation path, especially ahead of the upcoming meeting between US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
And he clarifies that a fundamental divergence emerges between the United States and Israel over prioritizing the next phase of the agreement, as Washington pushes towards rapid transition to the second phase through a parallel path that combines disarmament and reconstruction, in an attempt to stabilize and prevent return of confrontations.
And Mana points out that in contrast, Israel insists on making disarmament of Hamas movement a prerequisite for any reconstruction operation, which places major obstacles in front of implementing the next phase of the agreement.
And he notes that what is happening on the ground reflects this flaw in approaches, where selective and limited steps are implemented, especially in Rafah city in the south of the sector, which suggests partial readiness for the next phase without full or clear commitment to its clauses, which enhances the state of ambiguity and uncertainty.
He also notes that the ambiguity related to forming the supposed multinational force and its roles and authorities constitutes an additional pressure factor that may lead to slowing down the implementation of the agreement or even freezing it, which makes the agreement formally existing but fragile and susceptible to stumbling at any time.
And regarding the upcoming meeting between Trump and Netanyahu, Mana expects it to focus on managing hot and intertwined files, at the forefront of which is the Gaza sector, the Iranian file, in addition to the Syrian and Lebanese arenas, with focus on containing escalation, controlling the pace of confrontations, and coordinating American-Israeli positions to prevent the region from slipping towards a wide explosion.

The meeting will discuss multiple files

The writer and political analyst Adnan Al-Sabah believes that the upcoming meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump in Florida will discuss multiple files, but the central issue in it will be Gaza and the West Bank, within a broader regional context that includes Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen, in addition to intertwined international interactions.
And he clarifies that any bet on this meeting establishing a direct war declaration on any front is "not possible", affirming that the United States and the occupation state are today heading towards seeking "proxies" to implement goals on their behalf, through creating internal contradictions and local conflicts, alongside seeking to separate Gaza from the West Bank and turn it into a "cause, crisis, and tragedy" existing by itself.
And he points out that preparations are underway for joint goals between Netanyahu and Trump, who desires to seize Gaza.
And Al-Sabah notes that Netanyahu's visit comes after the occupation's announcement of recognition of what is called "Somaliland", considering that this recognition is not free, and leaks indicate its link to arrangements related to accepting settlement of Palestinians from Gaza there.
And Al-Sabah sees that Trump's orientations have not changed, citing his previous proposal regarding Greenland and appointing a representative for him there, considering that these steps come within a broader American policy targeting control over influential and active areas globally, and spreading conflicts and wars to weaken everyone to ensure American supremacy worldwide.
And he points out that the United States reaps huge profits from ongoing wars worldwide, as Washington seeks to reorder the global system on the basis of a new "American world", similar to what happened after the First and Second World Wars.
Regarding Gaza, Al-Sabah sees that "the Gaza agreement has practically ended", clarifying that its main goal was recovering prisoners and reducing military and political losses for the occupation, and exiting the ground confrontation that inflicted great damage on it.
And Al-Sabah affirms that the occupation today does not see haste for any solutions, amid absence of direct confrontation, and its continuation in expanding control areas and imposing new facts, alongside escalating work in the West Bank towards Judaization and annexation and changing the demographic scene.

A highly sensitive political station

The writer and political analyst Dr. Omar Rahal considers that the upcoming meeting on Monday between Trump and Netanyahu constitutes a highly sensitive political station, likely that Netanyahu will seek through it to redirect discussion priorities with Washington away from the Gaza sector, towards the Iranian file as the "greatest strategic threat" to Israel.
And he clarifies that the recent media escalation issued by Netanyahu and occupation leaders, accompanied by an increasing threatening tone towards Iran, reflects a clear Israeli orientation towards raising regional tension levels.
In Rahal's view, this behavior does not limit itself to exaggerating Iran's danger, but primarily aims to remove Gaza from the center of American attention, and turn it into a secondary file dealt with from security, administrative, and relief angles, away from any real political treatment.
And Rahal points out that Netanyahu does not settle for limited calm in Gaza, but seeks to expand the circle of regional ignition, so that Gaza becomes part of a tense regional scene, not the central scene itself.
And he clarifies that according to this vision, expanding the tension area may alleviate the political and humanitarian pressures imposed on the occupation government, especially those related to the second phase of the Gaza agreement, and grant Netanyahu a wider margin for maneuvering in front of Washington and the international community.
And Rahal points out that Netanyahu realizes the sensitivity of the relationship with the American administration, and therefore works on managing the disagreement with Washington rather than confronting it, as while Trump's calculations move within political and economic frameworks related to American hegemony and its major interests, Netanyahu's calculations are "narrower and more personal", and basically relate to his staying in power and protecting his political future.
And Rahal notes that Netanyahu wants a war without political horizon, a war used to decide internal and regional files, at the forefront of which is consolidating his political position and ensuring Israel's superiority in any future regional arrangements.
And Rahal predicts that Netanyahu will show a degree of tactical flexibility in front of the Americans, through accepting not attacking Iran in the current phase, in exchange for calculated calm in Gaza and opening limited humanitarian paths, without providing any commitment to a clear political path or radical solutions for the sector.
And regarding the future of the Gaza agreement, Rahal affirms that the option of stumbling will remain strongly present after this meeting, pointing out that political and field data indicate that Netanyahu is systematically working to obstruct the second phase of the agreement.
And Rahal clarifies that this phase represents a transition from the logic of military force to the logic of politics, and this transition is seen by Netanyahu as a direct threat to the cohesion of his ruling coalition, and may open the door to holding him accountable on corruption files and military failures in Gaza.
And he sees that security pretexts will remain present, such as "absence of partner in Gaza", refusal to involve the Palestinian Authority, and claiming incomplete security conditions, in addition to the debate over the role of any possible international force.
According to Rahal, the ceasefire agreement in the Gaza sector will remain "stagnant", as it neither officially collapses nor actually progresses, but stays in a gray area interspersed with Israeli evasions, limited humanitarian steps, controlled escalation, and assassination operations, followed by temporary retreat.
And Rahal sees that Netanyahu seeks through this policy to buy more time, whether by igniting the region or blocking any political horizon, pressing in two parallel directions: the first personal related to his political protection and the possibility of raising the pardon file, and the second strategic aiming to keep the region in a state of tension that requires a wider American presence to decide files that Israel cannot handle alone, but in partnership with the United States.

The upcoming meeting will be "very tense"

The writer specialized in Israeli affairs, Fayez Abbas, sees that the upcoming meeting between Trump and Netanyahu will be "very tense", especially in everything related to the Gaza sector file and the future of the war, pointing out that the main disagreement revolves around Trump's insistence on transitioning to the second phase of his political plan.
And he clarifies that Trump sees in proceeding with this phase a great political opportunity, which may form an entry to achieving a major international achievement, which may reach the level of the Nobel Peace Prize, which drives him to pressure Netanyahu to end the current phase and move to new arrangements in the sector.
In contrast, Abbas expects Netanyahu to place multiple obstacles in front of this orientation, despite indicators suggesting that Trump will seek to oblige him to go towards the second phase.
And Abbas points out that Netanyahu, for more than a week, has been leaking to Israeli media narratives talking about Iranian readiness to direct a military strike on Israel, under the pretext of responding to the American-Israeli bombing that targeted Iran and its nuclear facilities, in a clear attempt to raise the regional tension level.
According to Abbas, Netanyahu will try during his visit to the United States to divert attention from the Gaza file, and push negotiations and American media to focus on the "Iranian threat", which leads to marginalizing the suffering of the Gaza sector and the Palestinian people. However, Abbas predicts that the American president will not allow Netanyahu to fail his plan related to ending the war in the sector.
And he believes that Netanyahu will condition the transition to the second phase on preventing any participation of forces from Turkey or Qatar within the stabilization force, with insistence on Israel remaining the party that undertakes "security maintenance" in the Gaza sector, under the pretext of not trusting any foreign military force.


Israel deliberately escalates war discourse

The writer and political analyst Talal Awaql clarifies that Israel deliberately, in the context of preparing for the sixth upcoming meeting between President Trump and Netanyahu, escalates war discourse at the regional level, in an attempt to influence the meeting's path and results, especially what concerns transitioning to the second phase of the American plan for the Gaza sector.
And he clarifies that the Israeli escalation campaign does not limit itself to threatening a possible war with Iran, but advances in parallel with continuing the tough discourse towards Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, without any reduction in its intensity.
And Awaql points out that statements by occupation army minister Yoav Gallant about settlement in Gaza and staying in areas occupied by the Israeli army, then retracting them and later returning to raise the same file, reflect a state of intended political maneuvering.
And he notes that statements by other Israeli ministers, at the forefront of which is Bezalel Smotrich, regarding waiting for the announcement of "sovereignty" over the West Bank after Netanyahu's return from Washington, fall within the same context.
According to Awaql, this behavior reflects a clear Israeli awareness that Trump insists on transitioning to the second phase of his plan in Gaza, which Netanyahu is trying to circumvent.
And Awaql predicts that Netanyahu will seek to convince Trump to accept delaying or "poisoning" this transition, in exchange for giving him the green light to wage war on Lebanon, which is the most likely scenario, without ruling out directing strikes at Iran in the near or later time.
And Awaql affirms that Netanyahu has come to realize that he no longer possesses convincing pretexts for delaying the transition to the second phase, and that returning to escalation in Gaza under the pretext of "eliminating Hamas" is no longer sufficient to convince Trump to allow failing his plan.
And Awaql considers that what is happening is misleading political propaganda aimed at manipulating the American administration, in order to continue wars and raise tension levels in the region, in service of a political approach that Netanyahu has become captive to, and works to consolidate it no matter the regional and international cost.