Lebanon.. Intense diplomatic activity and fears of Israeli escalation

Lebanon is witnessing a week full of Arab and international diplomatic activity, focusing on supporting the army and enhancing stability in the south of the country, amid the continuation of daily Israeli aggressions despite the ceasefire agreement in effect since late November 2024.

This diplomatic activity, according to political analysts who spoke, combines efforts to strengthen the national legitimacy of the Lebanese army and raise challenges against any possible military action by Israel.

However, analysts' opinions differed on future scenarios, between one who rules out war because it would legitimize "Hezbollah" by justifying any response it might issue, another who is certain that war is inevitable due to Lebanon's slowness in implementing commitments to monopolize arms in the hands of the state, and a third who sees the possibility of war but not its inevitability.

On Monday, the diplomatic week began in the south with a tour of Arab and foreign ambassadors accompanied by the Lebanese army commander Rudolph Hikel, set to end on Friday with the conclusion of the 15th meeting of the "Mechanism" committee during 2025.

The "Mechanism" committee was established pursuant to the ceasefire agreement between Israel and "Hezbollah", and monitors its implementation, comprising military representatives from Lebanon, France, Israel, the United States, and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon "UNIFIL".

In parallel with the diplomatic activity inside Lebanon, the capital Paris hosted, on Thursday, expanded talks that brought together French, Saudi, and American officials with the Lebanese army commander, and concluded with "renewing their support for the Lebanese army and the government's plan aimed at disarming non-governmental actors", in reference to "Hezbollah's" arms.

Paris also announced in an official briefing following the meeting that France, Saudi Arabia, and the United States "will hold an international conference in February 2026 to support the Lebanese army", without specifying the venue or the exact date.

Within the same diplomatic activity framework, Beirut was visited on Thursday by Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly, who will meet on Friday with the presidents of the republic Joseph Aoun, the ministers Nawaf Salam, and the parliament Nabih Berri.

Political analyst and journalist Ghassan Rifai says that "Lebanon is receiving a large number of diplomats and international envoys, but these visits do not translate practically on the ground, amid Israel's continuation of its daily aggressions without paying attention to these movements".

He believes that "the world has become convinced that Lebanon has done everything required of it, whether at the government level that implemented international conditions, or at the level of the Lebanese army that performed the tasks entrusted to it according to available capabilities".

Rifai points out that "the diplomatic tour organized by the Lebanese army in the south to inspect the measures taken confirmed this, and left a positive impression on Arab and foreign ambassadors about what the army is doing".

But this positive picture is not complete because "the party obstructing the work of the Lebanese government and army is Israel, which still occupies the five points in the south, preventing the Lebanese army from deploying there".

Rifai notes that the Lebanese army's entry into the five hills occupied by Israel during the last war, in addition to areas it has occupied for decades, means either clashing with the Israeli forces there or normalizing with them in case of no confrontation, and in both cases, there is no (Lebanese) decision on that".

Regarding the chances of a new aggression erupting, Rifai rules out Israel launching a war at the present time, considering that it would legitimize "Hezbollah" if it responds after its long commitment to the ceasefire.

He believes that any war would lead to inciting global public opinion against Israel, amid international conviction that "Hezbollah" has not violated the ceasefire agreement, that the Lebanese government has complied with the conditions, that the army has fulfilled its duties, and with the testimony of ambassadors.

For her part, political analyst and journalist Misa Abdel Razek estimates that "Lebanon remains exposed to the possibility of intensifying Israeli aggressions or a new war, despite adopting the diplomatic option, especially after appointing Ambassador Simon Karam as head of the Lebanese delegation in the Mechanism committee, to be the first non-military official assigned to a similar mission".

The Lebanese presidency's assignment of the chairmanship to Karam came after Joseph Aoun's confirmation in October last year that "there must be negotiation" with Israel to resolve the "pending" problems, a step criticized by "Hezbollah" and considered "a slip for the government and a violation of all statements that said involving any civilian is conditional on stopping hostile actions".

In this context, Abdel Razek points out that "the official Lebanese position, as expressed by the president of the republic, affirms that the negotiation option is the alternative to war".

She confirms that "Lebanon has committed to the ceasefire agreement, while Israeli violations have exceeded 10,000 violations".

Abdel Razek points out that "Israel justifies its violations with Hezbollah's arms despite the Lebanese government's decision in August last year to monopolize arms in the hands of the state, and the measures implemented by the Lebanese army, where it completed more than 90% of the mission south of the Litani River".

She goes further, seeing that "despite what has been achieved, a new Israeli aggression cannot be ruled out under the pretext of (targeting) Hezbollah's arms".

She considers that the visit of the Egyptian Prime Minister to Lebanon on Thursday "carries diplomatic messages in the context of calming and preventing escalation".

As for political analyst and journalist George Akouri, he sees that Lebanon faces "always playing on the edge of the abyss", pointing out that "it is living today the killer time period, not the wasted time".

Akouri speaks of "delays by Hezbollah in doing what it committed to when it supported the oath speech (of President Aoun), the ministerial statement, and the ceasefire agreement".

He points to "the party's insistence on clinging to its arms and boasting about rebuilding its arsenal", and touches on "the blatant Iranian support for Hezbollah through positions and meetings held in public".

The writer warns of "the danger of Lebanon being subjected to a major Israeli strike despite the efforts of the army and the Lebanese state, due to the slow pace (of monopolizing arms) in the face of regional developments", in reference to fundamental changes in the scene, the most important of which is the fall of the Baath regime in Syria and the decline of Iran's influence in the region.

He also points out that "the diplomatic visits and delegations that went to Lebanon carried clear warning messages that time is not in the country's favor, and that there is a real threat from Israel".

Akouri sees that "the decisive phase will be linked to the meeting of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with US President Donald Trump at the end of this month, which may determine the possibility of granting Lebanon a short time period to catch up on the delay in confronting Hezbollah's arms".

He says that "the United States, through its officials, demanded the end of the party's arms before the end of the year, but it is unknown whether it will succeed in convincing Israel to grant Lebanon additional time".

Under American-Israeli pressures, the Lebanese government approved on August 5 the monopolization of arms in the hands of the state, including what "Hezbollah" possesses, before announcing in September last year its welcome to the plan prepared by the army to implement the decision, consisting of 5 stages.

However, it did not specify a time frame for its implementation, although the first stage includes withdrawing "Hezbollah's" arms from south of the Litani until the end of this year.

In contrast, Hezbollah's Secretary-General Na'im Qassem said on more than one occasion that the party rejects that and demands the withdrawal of the Israeli army from all Lebanese territories.

This comes while Hebrew media has been talking since last week about "completing" the Israeli army's preparation of a plan to launch a "wide attack" against sites affiliated with the party, if the Lebanese government and army fail to implement their commitment to dismantle its arms before the end of 2025".

Israel killed more than 4,000 people and injured about 17,000 others during its aggression on Lebanon, which it began in October 2023, before turning it into a comprehensive war in September 2024, which stopped with a ceasefire agreement that entered into force on November 27 of the same year.

It also violated the ceasefire agreement more than 4,500 times, resulting in hundreds of deaths and injuries, in addition to its occupation of 5 Lebanese hills it controlled in the last war, in addition to other areas it has occupied for decades.