Trump's Middle East Plan: Will He Succeed in Convincing Netanyahu to Change?

Former US President Donald Trump launched the National Security Document at the beginning of this month, which included a new vision for the world, where he considered the Middle East an important investment area.

Despite the lack of conclusive evidence, Trump insists that he stopped the ceasefire in Gaza, and stresses moving forward with the next phase of his plan before the end of this month, which includes the establishment of a "peace" council and an international "stability" force. Trump seems to feel pressed for time before the upcoming US midterm elections, and seeks to remain in power for a second presidential term.

Trump's plan requires achieving a constitutional coup and facing a judicial challenge that allows him to run, in addition to implementing the new National Security Document, which aims to put the Middle East on the investment path he wants.

The current situation requires Trump to expedite the arrangement of the situation of his partner Benjamin Netanyahu, whom he does not personally favor, but considers him the only figure capable of influencing Jewish businessmen in Israel and America, and pushing them to support his investment projects in the Middle East. This means the need to stop the war and keep Netanyahu in power, by convincing him to complete the procedures for obtaining a presidential pardon, including admitting guilt and withdrawing from political life, which Netanyahu refuses.

Despite this rejection, Trump and his team seem to be approaching the presentation of a new formula that Netanyahu has begun to study.

This formula depends on inviting Netanyahu to a general election in Israel, followed by the latter accepting the remaining pardon conditions, then running for election again, while changing his alliances to get rid of his hard-line allies such as Ben Gvir and Smotrich, who contradict Trump's investment orientations, and most Gulf countries refuse to deal with them if they remain in power, while Saudi Arabia insists on not normalizing relations without the establishment of a Palestinian state.

This position supports the two countries' insistence on not contributing to the reconstruction of Gaza without ensuring that a new war does not break out, which means the need to change the Israeli political map, ensure comprehensive peace in the region that excludes warmongers in Israel, stop the displacement project, and resume the Palestinian Authority's role in Gaza.

But Netanyahu does not see things so easily, and does not feel Trump's urgency, because he knows that leaving political life and then returning through direct elections will not convince his opponents, who believe that he will go out the door to return through the window, and they want to get rid of him permanently so that he does not pose a threat to them. Netanyahu's opponents will not miss the opportunity to overthrow him, especially since they believe that his joining any coalition with them is no longer a qualitative addition. However, a comprehensive formula that guarantees the exit of settlers from the scene and the overthrow of Smotrich may make the matter acceptable to some pillars of the opposition, especially if it is supported by great pressure and pledges from Trump.

In return, Netanyahu returns to maneuvering, especially with his expression of some flexibility, which Trump seems to have requested of him, by announcing his intention to dismantle 14 settlement outposts and arrest 70 settlers, and even his willingness to reach a "possible" peace with the Palestinians. This unusual language from Netanyahu has made everyone wonder about the reasons for this "change" in position. And if we reach the above scenario, will the Israeli political scene witness such developments? We'll wait and see.