Israeli Estimate: Erdogan's Dream Realized in Gaza Means a Nightmare for the Occupation

After nearly two years of Israeli opposition to Turkish intervention in Gaza, Ankara entered negotiations through the front door, and a peace agreement was signed to end the war, with Turkey, as one of Hamas's largest supporters, playing a significant role, which could increase Erdoğan's influence in the region, and this may be where Israeli problems begin.

Leor Ben Ari, a writer for Yedioth Ahronoth, revealed that "for almost two years, since Hamas's attack on October 7, 2023, Israel has done everything in its power to prevent Turkey from intervening in the negotiations, relying solely on the mediation of Egypt and Qatar, and not on Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has supported the movement all along, describing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as 'Hitler,' and was among the first to accuse Israel of committing massacres and genocide."

He added in an article translated by "Arabi21" that "with the emergence of details regarding the continuation of U.S. President Donald Trump's plan in Gaza, and the negotiations related to its second phase, which remain ambiguous, Turkey's role as a mediator and activist in the sector seems to have already been confirmed, as it, at Trump's initiative, finally played a pivotal role in the talks that led to the ceasefire, and it is considered to have decisively influenced matters, encouraged by him, as Erdoğan signed the agreement at the 'Peace Summit' in Sharm El Sheikh alongside Trump, Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad, and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi."

He pointed out that "Turkey's intervention in Gaza does not stop there, but it will also participate in the international task force that will help find the Israeli hostages who were killed in Gaza, and despite its centered role in Gaza, Turkey, especially Erdoğan and his Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, has not softened its public signals against Israel, raising further suspicious questions, as it has long rejected its intervention in the 'day after' in Gaza, and strongly opposed it, but the situation changed due to Trump's pressure, and because his relations with Erdoğan are at their peak, relying on him to restore 'some order' to the Middle East."

It was reported by Galya Lindenstrauss, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, that "thanks to Turkey's ability to pressure Hamas, and because it and Qatar provide it with protection, logistical support, and funds, the agreement was reached, and thus it is considered one of the factors that contributed to it, opening the door for it to deepen its involvement in Gaza, which it desired and aspired to, a development welcomed from its perspective, even though it is a highly hostile party towards Israel, which sees it as undesirable for Turkey to be a key part of the management of the 'day after,' but this is one of the costs of the agreement, and not a positive thing."

She clarified that "Turkey has experience in peacekeeping, monitoring forces, and its military has professional capabilities, but Israel does not want to see it in Gaza, and because it is working hard to ensure that it does not engage in southern Syria, it is all the more important not to allow it to operate in Gaza now, as it contradicts its interests."

For his part, Rami Daniel, an expert on Turkey, stated that "its intervention was crucial in reaching the agreement, regardless of the Israeli opinion on it, and it wanted to be an influential and important party in it, having previously provided massive aid to Gaza, and at one time was the most significant aid donor, and Erdoğan has tried to be a role model in his opposition to the occupation, and no country has reached what Turkey has, which has long hated us, and in the end, Trump relied on it to convince Hamas of his plan, marking a turning point, and it was necessary for Turkey to intervene in the issue."

He added that "Israel's problem lies in the fact that Turkey's intervention comes at a cost, as it helped reach the first phase of the agreement, and we all know that it will be very difficult to reach agreements on the second phase, which concerns a long-term solution, even though Erdoğan is enhancing Hamas's legitimacy, and may maintain its political importance, as he has not changed his tone, saying things like: enough pressure on the Palestinians and Hamas, we need to pressure Israel."

He explained that "the more Turkey and Qatar are involved in the Gaza file, the more difficult it becomes to remove Hamas from power, even though roles have not yet been divided regarding its future, as Trump's plan is ultimately fundamental and very principled, and we do not know exactly who will do what; it is true that Erdoğan has dreamed of a central role in Gaza since October 7, and it is likely that he will try to be