The Israeli occupation threatens to respond to any recognition of Palestine and threatens to annex the West Bank.

As the international conference on the "two-state solution", hosted by the United Nations in New York from June 17 to 20, under joint Saudi-American chairmanship, approaches, relations between France and Israel continue to deteriorate against the backdrop of the ongoing war in Gaza, resulting in dozens of daily deaths and the widening circle of hunger and destruction.

In recent months, the tone of rhetoric and tension between the two sides have escalated. Because France is a major party to the New York conference, a number of questions are being raised forcefully.

At the forefront of these questions is: Could a rupture occur due to the conference's declared goal, which is to practically push toward a solution based on the existence of a Palestinian state alongside the State of Israel, and what would be the impact if that occurred?

This comes amid Israeli threats to take action in response to the conference and France's anticipated recognition of a Palestinian state, which has been repeatedly confirmed by its president, Emmanuel Macron, and his foreign minister, Jean-Noël Barrot.

Also notable is the deterioration in relations between Macron and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Well-informed sources say there has been no contact between the two for over a month, after previously communicating weekly.

But last week, Macron invited Israeli President Isaac Herzog to dinner at the Élysée Palace, demonstrating that his problem is not with Israel, but with Netanyahu and his government, which Paris considers the most extremist.

French position

France was also angered by the Israeli military and settler violations in the West Bank, the targeting of diplomats from several embassies who were on a visit to inspect the Jenin refugee camp with gunfire, and the storming of Al-Aqsa Mosque by far-right minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and hundreds of his supporters. This prompted Paris to break its silence and move beyond relying on diplomatic language.

Paris is keen to emphasize that its position on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict stems from its conviction that there is no military solution to the conflict, evidenced by the ongoing war in Gaza more than a year and a half after it began.

France also asserts that the initiative to which it is contributing is "balanced," meaning that it benefits both Israel and the Palestinians; recognition of the State of Palestine is matched by recognition of and normalization with Israel.

The latest statement in this context came from the French Foreign Ministry, when its spokesman, Christophe Lemoine, said that Minister Barrot indicated, during his meeting with his counterparts, the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan, last Thursday, his country's desire for "this conference to enable joint progress on the recognition of the State of Palestine, normalization and regional integration, the disarmament of Hamas, and the renewal of Palestinian governance."

Paris also stresses the need to provide "security guarantees" for Israel, confirming that the conference is not directed against it, and that the main obstacle is Netanyahu's absolute rejection of the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Threatening to annex the West Bank

The Israeli side preempted the New York conference by leaking news about its potential reaction to France or other countries recognizing a Palestinian state, and to the conference in general.

Israel Hayom reported Tuesday that Foreign Minister Israel Katz warned major powers that any unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state would be met with the imposition of sovereignty over the West Bank.

For its part, Le Monde newspaper reported last Thursday, citing an Israeli source, that among the options Netanyahu might pursue are closing the French consulate in Jerusalem and imposing Israeli sovereignty over the West Bank, which would, in practice, mean annexation.

The newspaper quoted the Israeli Prime Minister as saying that the French "know that if they act in this manner (recognizing the State of Palestine), they will pay the price."

Among the measures Israel could take in response are obstructing French interests in the region, halting security cooperation with France, and preventing Paris from being a party to the reconstruction of Gaza.

Netanyahu had previously rejected Paris' participation in supervising the ceasefire in Lebanon, which was concluded at the end of last November. This forced Macron to make a concession to Netanyahu, leaving the door open for him to visit France despite the International Criminal Court's decision to arrest him for trial on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity. However, France's participation remained largely symbolic and has been unable to halt the almost daily Israeli attacks on Lebanon despite the ceasefire.

Netanyahu no longer hesitates to level direct accusations at Macron after any statement he deems critical of him or his policies. After Macron, in a television interview on May 13, described the Israeli army's actions in Gaza as "shameful," Netanyahu responded violently, accusing him of "siding with a criminal terrorist organization."

When Macron called for an end to arms sales to Israel to halt its war on Gaza, Yair Netanyahu, the prime minister's son, wrote on Twitter: "Long live free New Caledonia, and also Polynesia and Corsica," all French maritime territories, adding, in street language, a phrase that translates as: "Fuck you, Macron."

Controversial files

There are many contentious issues between France and Israel, including the war in Gaza and the situation in the West Bank, as well as the Israeli military's expansion into southern Syria and its air and drone strikes across Syrian territory, not to mention its violations in Lebanon.

But what particularly bothered Israel were two things: First, France's support for reconsidering the "association agreement" concluded between it and the European Union, which the Netherlands was the first to call on the European Commission to undertake, and which France, through its foreign minister, considered "legitimate."

The other is Paris's success in convincing London and Ottawa to issue a joint tripartite statement last week, in which the three capitals affirmed, on the one hand, their determination to recognize the Palestinian state, and, on the other, their decision to take "additional measures" against Israel if it does not cease its war on Gaza and continues to deny the Strip's residents access to humanitarian aid.

Israel likely felt stung when its two main allies, Britain and Canada, accepted the tripartite statement, highlighting the growing gap between it and its closest supporters.

Israel has often opposed initiatives issued by the European Union, which it accuses of supporting and antagonizing Arab positions. However, what comes from France is particularly irritating, as it reminds its leaders of the policies of two previous French presidents: General Charles de Gaulle and his successor, Jacques Chirac.

The former imposed an arms embargo on Israel after the 1967 war, while the latter took courageous positions on the Palestinian issue. Today, some in Israel see some of Macron's positions as reminiscent of those of de Gaulle and Chirac.

Will the current president succeed in persuading the Europeans to pressure Israel to soften its position and accept a Palestinian state? Or will it maintain its absolute rejection, relying, as always, on the American support that has provided it with uninterrupted protection?