Beirut - (AFP) - Following a estrangement that has continued since the outbreak of the conflict in Syria in 2011, Moscow brought together the Turkish and Syrian defense ministers on Wednesday, in a move preceded by indications of a rapprochement between the two adversaries that, according to analysts, would put the Kurdish forces in front of bitter choices.
What is the most prominent information available about the meeting, and what about its expected repercussions on the US-backed Kurdish Autonomous Administration, which Ankara has been threatening for some time to launch a ground attack against its areas of control in northern Syria?
Before the outbreak of the conflict in 2011, Turkey was a key economic and political ally of Syria. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan developed a friendship with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. However, their relationship turned upside down with the start of peaceful protests against the regime and Damascus suppressing the demonstrations by force.
After Turkey closed its embassy in Damascus in March 2012, Erdogan repeatedly described Assad as a "criminal", while the latter described his Turkish counterpart as a "thief" and supporter of "terrorists".
Turkey provided support to the political opposition and hosted its most prominent components in Istanbul, before it began supporting the armed opposition factions and sheltered nearly four million refugees on its soil.
Although Turkey launched three attacks against Kurdish fighters since 2016, which enabled it to control large Syrian border lands, it did not enter into direct confrontation with Damascus except in a limited way in 2020, which soon ended with Russian mediation.
After years of estrangement, signs of rapprochement gradually emerged. On the sidelines of a regional summit in 2021, the foreign ministers of the two countries had a brief informal conversation. In August, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu called for reconciliation between the regime and the opposition in Syria.
And Ankara and Damascus acknowledged communication at the level of the intelligence services.
Coinciding with his threat to launch a ground offensive against the Kurds, Erdogan said in November that the possibility of him meeting Assad was "possible." And last month, he renewed the reference to the possibility of the meeting taking place after meetings at the level of the ministers of defense and foreign affairs.
Russia, according to analysts, plays a key role in achieving rapprochement between its two allies, which are united by a common "opponent" represented by the Kurdish fighters.
Moscow announced that the talks between Russian Defense Ministers Sergei Shoigu, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar, and Syrian Ali Mahmoud Abbas touched on "ways to solve the Syrian crisis and the refugee issue," as well as "joint efforts to combat extremist groups," without naming them.
The three countries praised the "positivity" during the meeting. Moscow and Damascus stressed the need to "continue dialogue" to establish stability in Syria.
The director of the Damascus Center for Strategic Studies, Dr. Bassam Abu Abdullah, told AFP that the meeting "raised the level of meetings between the two countries from a security level to a ministerial level," stressing the need for "the rational parties in Damascus and Ankara (...) to try to prepare public opinion for more meetings on higher levels" in the next stage.
He points out that the meeting was linked to "developments related to the Turkish military operation that was scheduled in the north, and Moscow worked to stop it," considering that "the transfer of the meetings to the defense ministers means that there is a military field work that must be carefully coordinated between the three parties."
The meeting came weeks after Turkey launched, on November 20, a series of air and artillery strikes that mainly targeted the Kurdish forces, and Erdogan threatened to launch a ground offensive to drive them away from his borders.
Ankara classifies the Kurdish People's Protection Units, the backbone of the Syrian Democratic Forces, as a "terrorist" organization and considers it an extension of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has waged an insurgency against it for decades.
Intermittent rounds of talks led by the Syrian government with the Kurdish Autonomous Administration, which controls large areas in northern and eastern Syria, including the most prominent oil fields and large agricultural areas, which Damascus wants to regain sooner or later, have failed.
"Erdogan is under political pressure to launch a military operation in Syria, and to return the largest possible number of Syrians from Turkey" to their country before the Turkish elections in June.
"If Assad gives Erdogan the green light to launch air operations against the Kurds, war will soon follow," he added.
Last week, Akar reported contact with Moscow to "open the Syrian airspace" to Turkish fighters.
The options available to the Kurds, who fiercely confronted the Islamic State organization during the years of conflict, seem difficult, in light of the common interests between the three countries to end their influence and weaken their backer, Washington, which in the past weeks has contented itself with warning of the consequences of escalation.
"The direct goal of the three countries is to eliminate the Syrian Democratic Forces," Fabrice Balanche, a French researcher specializing in Syrian affairs, told AFP.
According to Balanche, Ankara wants to "eliminate the Kurdish threat" near its borders, while Russia seeks to "liquidate an ally of the United States in Syria, namely the Syrian Democratic Forces, and thus strengthen its ally, Bashar al-Assad."
As for Damascus, it wants to “reclaim the lands, especially its oil wealth,” from the Kurds in the north-east of the country, who are burdened by their relationship with Washington, and it expects Turkey to “eliminate the jihadists in Idlib,” in reference to Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra), which controls with other factions the region. About half of the area of Idlib Governorate (northwest) and its surroundings.
In the event that the Kurds refuse to meet Ankara's renewed demand to withdraw thirty kilometers from the border, the tripartite meeting will constitute an engine for a "Turkish invasion".
"The Turkish offensive is only a matter of time," Balanche said. "Erdogan needs a victory against the Kurds in Syria as part of his election campaign."
