A reading of the results of the round of escalation between Israel and the Islamic Jihad movement: in the balance of profit and loss

There is no doubt that the recent round of escalation that erupted between the Al-Quds Brigades - and behind it the national resistance factions - and the Israeli army was an extension of the idea of individual battles, which has become characteristic of the Gaza front during the past months, especially after the delinquency of the Hamas movement to political action, and its preference not to enter into military rounds of escalation. frequent Because of the constraints of reality and the poor humanitarian conditions in Gaza. In this article, we will shed light on the recent round of escalation and its repercussions on the parties to the relationship from a win-lose perspective, for Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and Netanyahu.

The Islamic Jihad movement and the round of escalation from the perspective of profit and loss

Although the battle of May 2023 was imposed on the Jihad movement after Israel assassinated the leaders of the Al-Quds Brigades in a preemptive strike, so that the Jihad had no choice but to respond and enter the front line, even alone; However, the Islamic Jihad movement was able to strike qualitative strikes at the Israeli depth, which turned Israeli public opinion against Netanyahu, and made the opposition leaders talk about Netanyahu's goals from this battle.

During the days of escalation, the Jihad movement took the lead in the scene of the resistance action from Gaza, and became the spokesperson for the resistance project. It was also able to turn into a major negotiator on the truce efforts, after the movement had left these negotiations to Hamas as the spearhead of the resistance program in Palestine, and this contributed to Achieving significant political and popular gains for the movement, which will be reflected in the Palestinian opinion polls in the coming weeks.

This round of escalation and the previous rounds of escalation led to major political and security shifts in the Palestinian political scene, the most important of which was the widening of the political and popular gap between the Hamas-Jihad movements, as stated in the speech of the Secretary-General of the Jihad Movement, Mr. Ziyad al-Nakhala, when he said, "We endured a lot during this The tour is to preserve the unity of the Palestinian position," which gives an indication of the size of the gap and differences between the two movements.

Despite the size of the losses incurred by the Islamic Jihad Movement from the leaders of the Military Council, the movement won the respect and appreciation of the Palestinian street, after it was able to stand firm and obtain the minimum demands during the cease-fire negotiations. Jihad lost individuals and leaders, but it gained the support of the Palestinian street, after it became the first spokesman for the resistance program and project, which is the project and program through which Hamas gained the support of the Palestinian street during the 2006 legislative elections.

Hamas and the escalation tour from the perspective of profit and loss

Since the battle of May 2021, Hamas has not entered the confrontation line with Israel, preferring to focus on political action that serves the movement’s authority in Gaza, and allows the movement to obtain international and regional legitimacy, as a major political player in the internal Palestinian equation, which gives an indication of the magnitude of the political transformations that it is undergoing. In it, the movement, after presenting a document of general principles and policies in which Hamas expressed political realism, by hinting at the movement's conditional acceptance of the idea of a state on the 1967 borders, as a political framework through which the movement can overcome the international boycott and Israeli reluctance to deal with it as the top of the pyramid of the Palestinian political system. Especially in the post-President Abbas era.

Hamas did not participate in the response to the assassination of the martyr Baha Abu al-Ataa, and it did not participate in the battle of August 2022, nor did it participate in the response to the assassination of the captive Khader Adnan, nor did it participate in the last battle of May 2023; However, it provided the national and revolutionary cover for the Islamic Jihad movement by responding to the crime of assassinating the leaders of the Al-Quds Brigades, although the movement no longer sees the Gaza front as an arena for resistance action, as much as it now sees it as an arena for theorizing resistance action emanating from the West Bank, given the challenges posed by the resistance action. The starting point of Gaza is the infrastructure and the humanitarian situation, in light of the Israeli insistence on destroying the civilian and security infrastructure in any round of escalation.

Hamas' failure to enter the confrontation line with Israel during the recent rounds of escalation had political and popular repercussions. It also had international and regional political gains. During the round of escalation, the strong relationship between Hamas and Jihad began to be characterized by a lot of apathy and tension, due to the repeated abandonment by Hamas of participating in Jihad efforts to respond to the crimes of the occupation, the latest of which was the assassination of the prisoner Khader Adnan, and the leaders of the Al-Quds Brigades in Gaza.

Among the expected repercussions of this tour on the Hamas movement is the decline in popular support for the movement in the ranks of the Palestinian street, after the Jihad Movement and the Al-Quds Brigades led the resistance project from Gaza. The act of resistance and the leadership of jihad will affect the position of Hamas in the Palestinian street. The round of escalation could also affect the position of the movement in the axis of resistance (the Iranian axis), especially since this axis is going through a period of high tension with the United States and Israel in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon, and the movement's repeated failure to enter the front line may reopen the talk about the movement's position in this regard. the hub?

Netanyahu and the round of escalation from the perspective of profit and loss

This round of escalation can be considered the Netanyahu round, or the round of extending the life of the Netanyahu government and his remaining in the presidency of the Israeli government for the coming months, in light of the emergence of many indications of the imminent cracking of this government, as a result of the differences that have emerged between him and his allies in the government coalition, on many issues, Especially the mechanism of dealing with the Gaza file.

Netanyahu entered this round forcefully by returning to the policy of assassinations in the hope of directing a qualitative and quick blow to jihad and a safe and quick exit through international and regional mediators, in an attempt to unify the Israeli home front, which was greatly fractured as a result of his attempt to change the judiciary and unify the ranks of his government, but prolonging the battle - For five days, he contributed to eroding the goals that Netanyahu achieved from the assassination operation, after the Al-Quds Brigades succeeded in striking the Israeli rear with force and reaching Tel Aviv and major cities.

In summary: Despite the great human losses in the ranks of the Al-Quds Brigades, the Jihad Movement was able to achieve a moral political and military victory through its steadfastness, the rallying of the Palestinian and Arab popular support around it, and striking the Israeli depth, while Hamas' failure to enter the front line contributed to Hamas' further exposure on the political level. And the media, and he recalled the strategic shifts that the movement is going through at the present time, through its preference for political action, as a result of the constraints of the local, regional and international reality, while Netanyahu did not achieve any internal political goals, whether by uniting the Israeli home front or restoring his government coalition, due to the prolongation of time The battle and the brigades' success in striking the Israeli depth force.