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Thu 06 Apr 2023 5:50 pm - Jerusalem Time

Global economic growth will not exceed 3%.

The Director-General of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva , expected Thursday, with the start of the spring meetings of her institution, that the global economy would go through one of the weakest periods of growth in recent decades, so that the rate would not exceed 3% in 2023.


"Despite the strength of labor markets and consumer spending in most advanced economies, as well as the recovery associated with the reopening of China, we expect growth of less than 3% in 2023," Georgieva said in a speech attended by a large number of diplomats in Washington.


And the International Monetary Fund had expected, in its previous update of the World Economic Report at the end of January, that growth would be around 2.9 percent in 2023, which is a slightly better rate than the first estimates it announced last October.


Although good growth is expected for the economies of the major emerging countries, particularly China and India, it will be weaker than what the International Monetary Fund had hoped for in the advanced economies.


Georgieva added that this trend is expected to continue. "We expect growth of about 3 percent over the next five years, which is our weakest medium-term forecast since 1990," she said.


The Director-General stressed that under these circumstances, continued monetary tightening in order to curb inflation, which remains "high", must remain the priority, despite the risks of financial sector disruption.


And she considered that the risks remain "limited" and that central banks can prevent them by "using their financial policies to ensure the stability" of the sector.


But Georgieva is also worried about the state of public finances in most countries, with their public debt soaring as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic and then the fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine.


The challenges to be faced are significant, particularly to enable the ecological transition in emerging countries, which are estimated to need about $1,000 billion annually over the next few years.


This will require that "our wealthiest members help fill in the gaps" in fundraising.


Low-income countries also face difficulties in accessing the debt market, due to the high costs associated with raising interest rates by major central banks.


Many of these countries are facing financial difficulties. The total amount of money provided by the International Monetary Fund has increased sharply to $300 billion in recent months.


And Georgieva stressed that this may continue, because "about 15% of low-income countries already suffer from debt problems, and 45% are about to face debt problems."

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Global economic growth will not exceed 3%.

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