The New York Times revealed that while the Israeli government publicly ignored warnings of a severe food shortage after blocking aid deliveries since March 2, an internal analysis concluded that a crisis looms if food supplies are not resumed.

Some Israeli military officials have concluded in private that Palestinians in Gaza face widespread famine unless aid deliveries resume within weeks, according to three Israeli defense officials familiar with the situation in the Strip.

The Israeli occupation authorities insist that their blockade of food and fuel in Gaza does not pose a significant threat to the lives of civilians in the Strip, even as the United Nations and other relief agencies warn that famine is looming.

“But Israeli military officers monitoring the humanitarian situation in Gaza have warned their commanders in recent days that unless the blockade is lifted quickly, many areas of the Strip are likely to run out of food to meet minimum daily nutritional needs, according to defense officials,” the New York Times reported. The officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, told the Times that the situation is dire because expanding humanitarian aid deliveries takes time. Therefore, these officers said, immediate steps are needed to ensure that the aid delivery system is reactivated quickly enough to prevent famine.

The growing recognition within parts of the Israeli security establishment of the hunger crisis in Gaza comes as Israel has pledged to significantly expand the war in Gaza to eliminate Hamas and return the remaining hostages—two goals the occupation has failed to achieve after more than 19 months of war.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday that the Israeli army would resume fighting in the coming days "with full force to finish the mission" and "eliminate Hamas."

Netanyahu's statement came on the same day that US President Donald Trump arrived in Saudi Arabia, as part of his first foreign trip since his re-election.

So far, Trump has not included a visit to Israel in his tour of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, underscoring the growing rift between Trump and Netanyahu, who increasingly disagree on some of the most important security issues facing Israel.

The military officials' analysis revealed a gap between Israel's public position on the complete blockade of aid and its private deliberations. This analysis reveals that parts of the Israeli security establishment have reached the same conclusions as leading aid organizations. They have been warning for months about the dangers of the blockade.

The analysis also highlights the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza: Most bakeries have closed, charity kitchens are shut, and the UN World Food Programme, which distributes aid and coordinates shipments, says it has run out of food stocks.

The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), a UN-backed initiative that monitors malnutrition, warned on Monday that famine is imminent in Gaza. In a brief report, the IPC said that if Israel proceeds with its planned military escalation in Gaza, "the vast majority of Gaza's population will be unable to access food, water, shelter, and medicine."

Israeli restrictions on aid to Gaza were one of the most contentious issues during the war. Israel cut off supplies to Gaza on March 2 and broke the ceasefire with Hamas, which remains entrenched in Gaza despite losing thousands of fighters and seizing control of much of the territory during the war, on March 18.

Israel stated that the purpose of the blockade was to limit Hamas's ability to access and utilize food and fuel intended for civilians. In the process, an Israeli Defense Ministry official told the newspaper, Hamas would be more likely to collapse, or at least to release more of the hostages the movement captured during its attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.

The Israeli government has repeatedly asserted that the blockade has not caused a "shortage" in aid to civilians, partly because large amounts of aid entered the Strip during the brief ceasefire.

But aid organizations were quick to warn that civilians would be the primary victims, adding that these restrictions are illegal under international law. These warnings have intensified as civilians say they are eating only one meal a day as food prices have risen sharply. Palestinians interviewed by The New York Times said the price of flour has increased 60-fold since late February.

Specialist officers at the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT), the Israeli government agency that oversees policy in Gaza and the West Bank, reached the same conclusion as aid agencies. The officers continually assess the humanitarian situation in Gaza by speaking with Palestinians there, checking the latest updates from aid organizations about their warehouse stockpiles, and analyzing the volume and contents of aid trucks that entered Gaza before the blockade.

Then, officers secretly briefed senior commanders on the deteriorating situation, warning with increasing urgency that many in the Strip were just weeks away from starvation. An Israeli general briefed the cabinet last week on the humanitarian situation in Gaza, saying that supplies in the Strip would run out within a few weeks, according to an Israeli defense official and a senior government official. Israel's Channel 13 first reported the ministerial briefing.

Last week, the Trump administration announced that it was working with Israel on such a plan. Israeli officials and aid organizations said it would involve private organizations distributing food from a handful of sites in Gaza, each serving hundreds of thousands of civilians. Israeli military personnel would be deployed around the sites, while private security companies would patrol their interiors.

Aid agencies, including the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, rejected the plan, stating that they would not join it because it would put civilians at greater risk. The agency explained that the proposal would force the most vulnerable to walk longer distances to reach the few distribution centers, making it more difficult to deliver food to those most in need. The UN explained that under the current system, there are 400 distribution points. It added that the new system would "significantly reduce operational coverage."

The United Nations also warned that the plan would force civilians to regularly cross Israeli military lines, exposing them to a greater risk of arrest and interrogation. It added that the plan would accelerate the displacement of civilians from northern Gaza, as distribution centers are expected to be located farther south in the Strip.

Israeli officials emphasized that the plan, if implemented, would help the army intercept Hamas fighters and transfer civilians from northern Gaza to southern Gaza. However, they said the goal is not to increase civilian suffering, but rather to separate them from the fighters. Experts in international conflict laws say it is illegal for any state to restrict aid delivery if it knows it will lead to famine.

“Imposing a military siege knowing that it will starve a civilian population is a violation of international law,” said Janina Dell, co-director of the Oxford Institute for Ethics, Law and Armed Conflict at Oxford University.

Dale added that even if there is debate about Israel's obligations to the people of Gaza, "when Israeli decision-makers state that the goal is to extract political and military concessions, this clearly constitutes a war crime."