Dr. Hassan Ayoub: Trump's top priority now is to reach a nuclear agreement with Iran that will pave the way for stable economic and security arrangements with the Gulf states.
Dr. Amr Hussein: Trump has a habit of using statements to attract attention and boost his media presence, which leads to expectations of a promotional campaign to enhance his personal presence.
Dr. Hussein Al-Deek: Trump's anticipated announcement could have significant political and diplomatic implications related to the Arabian Gulf and the delivery of aid to Gaza.
Dr. Irene Said: Trump may focus on Middle East issues during his visit to the region, including announcing efforts to bring humanitarian aid into Gaza.
Dr. Abdul Majeed Suwailem: Trump may lead a new phase aimed at extinguishing fires in the region rather than igniting them.
In a controversial new move, US President Donald Trump made a major announcement that could herald transformations in Middle East affairs and restore stability there, amid indications of a strategic move to compartmentalize regional issues and address them separately.
In separate interviews with Al-Quds, political writers, analysts, and experts believe that Trump's statements come at a time when he is seeking to bolster his political prospects, while simultaneously repositioning his country in the region. This includes direct negotiations with Iran, understandings with the Gulf states, and attempts to contain tensions in the region, particularly in Yemen and Gaza.
They point out that Trump's striking focus on "imminent surprises" and his sudden and unexpected decisions expose the region to multiple possibilities, most notably the possibility of reaching a new nuclear agreement with Tehran or announcing humanitarian arrangements for Gaza.
They believe that Trump's approach, based on "solving individual problems" rather than treating the region as a whole, signals a profound shift in American priorities, different from those of the previous administration. This coincides with the possibility of leaving Israel out of some understandings and further straining its relations with Washington.
Trump's decisions are volatile and surprising.
Dr. Hassan Ayoub, a writer and political analyst specializing in Israeli and American affairs, says that US President Donald Trump faces significant challenges in formulating his volatile and surprising decisions, which rely heavily on his personal intuition. This presents analysts with significant difficulties in predicting the future, and the good surprises he speaks of in the near future.
Ayoub links Trump's recent announcement of a ceasefire with the Houthis in Yemen, announced Tuesday, with the possibility of a qualitative breakthrough in the nuclear negotiations with Iran. He believes this step reflects a new strategy based on "problem solving" rather than dealing with Middle East issues as a comprehensive deal.
According to Ayoub, the Trump administration is moving toward dividing regional issues into separate issues, departing from the comprehensive vision adopted by previous US administrations to achieve stability in the region.
Ayoub explains that Trump's current top priority is to reach a nuclear agreement with Iran, which would pave the way for stable economic and security arrangements with the Gulf states, potentially placing Israel outside the framework of these arrangements.
Ayyoub believes that Oman's mediation, which succeeded in reaching a ceasefire with the Houthis, indicates Trump's attempt to create a favorable environment for the success of negotiations with Tehran. Three rounds of negotiations have been held in recent weeks, showing significant progress.
A strategic shift raises tensions with Israel.
Ayoub points out that this strategic shift is raising tensions with Israel, particularly given statements by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who appeared compelled to halt Israeli airstrikes against Yemen following Trump's announcement.
Ayoub points out that the Israeli attack on Sanaa airport, initially considered not to be the final one, abruptly halted just hours after the US announced an agreement with the Houthis, reflecting Israel's continued "blackout."
Ayoub explains that Netanyahu faces a real dilemma, as he may seek to derail the agreement with Iran and sabotage Trump's diplomatic tour of the region, especially since the tour may not include a stop in Israel, reminiscent of Barack Obama's first visit as president to the region without a stop in Israel.
Ayoub believes that Trump is resentful of Netanyahu's "games," noting that Trump is extremely sensitive to his personal credibility, which could prompt the US administration to pressure the Israeli government to accept the US vision.
Ayoub asserts that this tension is clearly evident in the contrast between Trump's strategy, which views a military solution as a means to reaching agreements, and Netanyahu's approach, which considers it an end in itself.
Feeding Gaza residents in exchange for the release of Israeli prisoners
Ayoub anticipates two possible scenarios for the positive surprise Trump spoke of. The first is linked to a breakthrough in the Iranian nuclear negotiations, as he pointed to reports indicating progress in the latest rounds of negotiations. The second could relate to the Gaza Strip, but in a manner that would be unpleasant for the Palestinians.
Ayoub explains that the Trump administration appears to be relying on a "humanitarian dimension," with its Middle East envoy, Steven Witkoff, proposing a deal that would include feeding Gaza residents in exchange for the release of Israeli prisoners, a move Hamas would likely reject. He also hinted at the possibility of announcing a new US plan for arrangements in the West Bank, reinforcing the idea of dealing with each issue separately.
On the other hand, Ayoub believes that Trump is seeking to create tremendous commercial and economic opportunities with the Gulf states, alongside multi-level diplomatic moves.
Ayoub notes that the announcement of a ceasefire with the Houthis could be a prelude to broader agreements, but success depends on regional reactions, particularly from Iran and Israel. He notes that the coming days, which are expected to be full of developments, are expected to be closely monitored, while acknowledging that information currently available is scarce.
Ayub warns of the danger of Trump relying on his intuition to make decisions, noting that this approach makes predicting the future extremely difficult.
Ayoub emphasizes that the current situation requires close monitoring, especially with the growing role of Omani mediation and its impact on regional balances. While Trump appears determined to impose his vision, the question remains open regarding Netanyahu's ability to adapt to these shifts, or whether they will lead to further escalation in the region.
Questions about the upcoming big announcement
Egyptian writer, political analyst, and researcher in international and strategic relations, Dr. Amr Hussein, explains that the anticipated major announcement indicated by US President Donald Trump raises questions about its nature, whether it is political, paving the way for his potential return to the political arena, or strategic, impacting US domestic and foreign policies.
Hussein points out that Trump has a habit of using such statements to attract attention and boost his media presence, leading to speculation that a surprise announcement could signal a promotional campaign to bolster his personal presence.
Regarding Trump's upcoming visit to the region, Hussein believes it carries two main dimensions: first, Trump's attempt to assert himself as an influential figure on the international stage, and second, an opportunity to reposition himself in resolving sensitive regional issues such as conflicts in the Middle East.
Hussein points out that the success of Trump's visit depends on the nature of the messages he delivers. If it focuses on calm and support for stability, it may contribute to reducing regional tensions. However, if the visit turns into a platform for escalating rhetoric or scoring domestic political points, it could further exacerbate tensions in the region, especially given the sensitivity of the current situation.
Hussein asserts that Trump's influence remains, but it is conditional on his ability to balance his personal interests with complex regional dynamics.
Keeping the media on the alert
The writer, political analyst, and expert on American affairs asserts that US President Donald Trump adopts a controversial approach in his statements, aiming to attract attention and keep the media on edge.
Al-Deek points out that Trump's expected announcement in the coming hours or days could carry significant political and diplomatic implications, linked to two key aspects that reflect his strategic vision for the region.
The first aspect, according to Al-Deek, is the United States' announcement that it will adopt the term "Arabian Gulf" instead of "Persian Gulf" in all its official names, whether within federal and local ministries and agencies, or in international contexts.
Al-Deek believes this move represents a "political and diplomatic flirtation" directed at the Gulf Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar.
Al-Deek explains that this decision reflects Trump's attempt to strengthen relations with these countries, which constitute a core component of his regional policy, by demonstrating symbolic support for their historical positions in the dispute over the naming of the Gulf.
Al-Deek points out that the second aspect relates to the official entry of humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip, in addition to arrangements with the Houthis in Yemen through Omani mediation.
Resolving some outstanding issues
Al-Deek points out that this step comes within the context of understandings aimed at resolving some outstanding issues, including calming the Iranian front and reducing tensions in Yemen.
Al-Deek asserts that there is a clear trend toward de-escalation in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait, where Houthi attacks on commercial vessels and warships will cease, enhancing stability in this vital region.
Regarding the possibility of reaching a permanent ceasefire or truce in the Gaza Strip, Al-Deek rules out the possibility of such a declaration before Trump's upcoming visit to the region.
Al-Deek explains that the reason lies in the significant difference between the Israeli approach and the Palestinian-Arab approach. According to Al-Deek, the Israeli side, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, believes that any ceasefire must be temporary, followed by the release of prisoners and detainees, followed by the resumption of the war to achieve its goals, namely the destruction of Hamas. In contrast, the Palestinian-Arab approach calls for a permanent ceasefire and a complete withdrawal of the occupation from Gaza.
The issue of handing over Hamas weapons
Al-Deek points out that the issue of Hamas's weapons surrender has become one of the most complex issues in the truce negotiations, as both the ruling coalition and the opposition in Israel agree to continue the war until this goal is achieved. This makes stopping the war, according to the Israeli vision, difficult, especially given Hamas's refusal to do so.
Al-Deek believes that Trump's upcoming visit to the region could contribute to resolving some issues and easing tensions on specific fronts.
Al-Deek points to the Yemeni file, where he expects a significant de-escalation, while regarding the Syrian file, he is likely to have a strong presence during the negotiations between Trump and Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh.
Al-Deek alludes to unconfirmed reports that Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa may arrive in Saudi Arabia to meet with Trump, which could bolster efforts to de-escalate the situation in Syria.
Al-Deek notes that the recent phone call between Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which included mutual invitations to visit Washington and Ankara, could be a prelude to a de-escalation on the Syrian front, especially given expectations of US pressure on Netanyahu to halt the ongoing Israeli military strikes on Syria.
Cautious optimism about achieving relative stability in the region
Al-Deek warns that Trump may grant Netanyahu freedom of movement in the Palestinian arena, whether in Gaza or the West Bank, without American pressure, while the focus will be on achieving stability in other arenas such as Yemen, Iran, Syria, and perhaps Lebanon.
Al-Deek asserts that this visit may represent a positive turning point in some issues, but it will not resolve the deep-rooted issues in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, as fundamental disagreements remain.
Al-Deek expresses cautious optimism about the possibility of achieving relative stability in the region, particularly on the Yemeni and Syrian fronts. However, he stresses that the situation in Gaza will remain a major point of tension due to Israel's intransigence. Nevertheless, Trump's visit to the region may bring additional surprises that reflect his unconventional political style.
Regional stability serves American economic interests.
For her part, Egyptian academic and political analyst Dr. Irene Said says that US President Donald Trump's upcoming visit to the Middle East aims to achieve regional stability that serves American economic interests, with a focus on calming tensions and ending conflicts.
Saeed points out that Trump is adopting clear approaches to de-escalation, citing the resumption of negotiations with Iran and the announcement of a halt to strikes on the Houthis in Yemen, despite Israel's attempts to embroil him in regional conflicts.
Saeed explains that Trump seeks to achieve stability in the region to advance his domestic interests, especially in light of challenges threatening American interests, such as maritime security or involvement with jihadist groups.
Saeed asserts that these factors could undermine his promises to the American voters who brought him to the White House. Despite his previous failure to manage conflicts, whether in Gaza or the Russia-Ukraine war, his current approach reflects a clear desire to resolve regional issues.
Speaking about Trump's expected "major announcement," Saeed indicated that he may focus on Middle East issues during his visit to the region. The announcement is expected to address efforts to deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza and attempts to control Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's policies.
Strong indicators of a settlement
Saeed affirms that Cairo and Doha have recently taken important steps to resume negotiations and ensure the success of calming efforts, which enhances the chances of achieving tangible progress.
Saeed explains that the visit cannot be separated from American economic interests, pointing to Trump's 2017 visit, which saw the signing of major deals with Gulf states.
Saeed believes these deals represent strong indicators of a settlement, especially in light of Israel's "shameful" policies and the extreme right's insistence on continuing the war without a clear strategic vision or objectives.
Saeed asserts that the success of Trump's visit depends on his ability to strike a balance between calming conflicts and promoting regional stability, while preserving American economic interests. However, this raises controversy over his ability to address the challenges posed by Israeli policies and regional tensions.
Three main axes of Trump's expected announcement
Writer and political analyst Dr. Abdul Majeed Sweilem says that the so-called "big announcement" expected to be made by US President Donald Trump represents a strategic attempt to defuse tensions in the Middle East, with a focus on strengthening economic relations with the Gulf states. Sweilem believes this announcement could include three main axes: a framework agreement with Iran, a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, or enhancing regional stability to attract investment and rebuild the US economy.
According to Suwailem, Trump's announcement seeks to achieve regional stability that serves the United States' economic interests.
Suwailem stresses that Trump is well aware that the success of this move requires making tangible concessions that meet the demands of the Gulf states.
Suwailem cites the example of Saudi Arabia seeking to conclude advanced arms deals and possibly move toward building a civilian nuclear reactor, alongside other demands from Gulf states such as the UAE and Qatar.
Suwailem asserts that Trump understands that the United States' ability to benefit from the Gulf states' vast financial capabilities depends on his responsiveness to sensitive regional issues, including the situation in the Gaza Strip.
Trump realizes the importance of ending the war in Gaza
Suwailem points out that Trump recognizes the importance of ending the war in the Gaza Strip as an integral part of his strategy.
Suwailem believes the US president will announce a ceasefire and a long-term truce, possibly extending for five years, considering that the threat posed by Hamas has effectively been eliminated.
Suwailem believes that Trump will rely on a narrative that the United States has successfully protected Israel from the threats it faces, and therefore will not be obligated to support Israeli ambitions to annex territory or realize the concept of "Greater Israel."
Suwailem says, "Trump will confirm that the United States has provided Israel, since October 7, 2023, with unprecedented support, unmatched by any other country in the world, contributing to the elimination of direct threats from Hamas, Hezbollah, and the axis of resistance. Consequently, Israel can now enter a period of calm without the need for further escalation."
On another note, Suwailem expects Trump's major announcement to include serious discussion of an agreement with Iran, whether a detailed agreement or a preliminary framework.
Suwailem believes this move could represent a historic shift, as the United States seeks to integrate Iran into regional economic networks, enhancing stability and paving the way for mutual investment. He asserts that this trend reflects Trump's desire to avoid involvement in new wars, especially after his withdrawal from the confrontation with Yemen, believing that the region no longer needs military escalation.
Attracting huge Gulf investments.
Suwailem asserts that Trump's primary goal is to strengthen the US economy by attracting massive Gulf investments.
Suwailem believes that the Gulf states, led by Saudi Arabia, are prepared to play an unprecedented regional role, provided a minimum level of regional stability is achieved and the tensions driven by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are resolved.
"Trump realizes that the success of his plan depends on his ability to convince the Gulf states that the United States is serious about protecting their interests and promoting stability," Suwailem says.
Suwailem believes that Trump aspires to establish regional economic networks that include all parties, including Iran, which would enhance prosperity and protect American interests. He emphasized that this announcement could represent an "unprecedented shift" in US policy toward the region.
Although Suwailem does not expect explicit American recognition of Palestinian national rights, he believes that this stage may halt the existential threat facing the Palestinian people.
A new phase aims to extinguish fires in the region
Suwailem explains that ending the war in Gaza and restoring regional stability will pave the way for reconstruction and granting Palestinians a degree of rights. He believes this shift reflects Trump's realization that continuing wars is impossible without thwarting his economic plans.
Suwailem points out that the events that began on October 7, 2023, exposed the falsity of Israeli narratives that attempted to portray the Palestinian resistance and the resistance axis as completely defeated.
Suwailem asserts that reality has proven that Israel has not achieved its ambitious goals, such as building a "state from the Euphrates to the Nile," and that the United States is now forced to acknowledge new realities, which represents a major achievement for the resistance and the Palestinian people.
Suwailem points out that Trump may lead a new phase aimed at extinguishing fires in the region, rather than igniting them.
Suwailem asserts that the success of this major announcement depends on Trump's ability to strike a balance between meeting the demands of the Gulf states, ending regional conflicts, and rebuilding the American economy. However, the question remains: Will Trump be able to achieve this historic transformation, or will regional challenges continue to hinder his ambitions?
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