Fri 21 Jun 2024 10:31 am - Jerusalem Time

Netanyahu, Gantz, and the war cabinet

It is not known with certainty when Netanyahu’s reign in Israel will end. All estimates about his future are indicated by opinion polls, which still agree that he will inevitably leave. However, what weakens this conclusion is that it is based on “if.” That is, if the elections were held today, such and such would happen.

Netanyahu is not unaware of the opinion polls. He is immune to their negative impact on him, which he derives from the difficulty and perhaps impossibility of holding early elections as long as their decision is in his hands and in the hands of his coalition. Until the date of the regular elections comes, he has enough time and discretion to make decisions, enough for him to be optimistic about stopping the deterioration in his position. And bet on it again.

Netanyahu realizes that he needs something to convince voters to re-elect him, and therefore a mandatory path is to achieve convincing victories on the two main fronts that influence the Israeli mood and vote... the Gaza front and the southern Lebanon front.

The course of the war on Gaza did not provide him with clear justifications for achieving his absolute victory, but because this war is crucial for him, he has no choice but to prolong it. Perhaps it will produce reasonable opportunities for his absolute victory, which will not be complete unless the polls inform him that he has returned to occupying his previous position, not in his capacity. As president of a parliamentary majority, but rather as a crowned king and savior of Israel.

So... he is forced to take risks and gamble. This is the case when a man leads the battle for his existence and destiny.

As for the war in southern Lebanon, where “Hezbollah hostages” are pressuring it to free them from what they are in, and what I mean by “Hezbollah hostages” are the residents of border towns and settlements who have been displaced to distant places and continue to scream asking to return to their homes, and Netanyahu realizes how much they are. The bill to make them feel absolutely safe is high, as it is either a political settlement that permanently eliminates the danger lurking on the northern border, or a war that requires America to agree to it or to be involved in one way or another, and because Netanyahu is fighting a war of survival and fate, he has no objection if he is not convinced to get involved.

He did this when he took the initiative to destroy the Iranian consulate in Damascus, which brought matters to the brink of war. Had it not been for Iranian discipline and the direct tripartite intervention of the United States, France, and Britain, the cards would have been mixed up in a way that Netanyahu believes is the first and perhaps the last beneficiary of it, and even now, despite the visits of the American and French envoys and their tireless efforts. There are not sufficient guarantees that the game will not develop beyond its controlled borders, and Netanyahu has the detonator in his hand, and Hezbollah and Iran have the size of the response in their hands.

The last thing that did the story of Gantz and Eisenkot. He brought them in the first days of the war not to benefit from their experiences as two generals who actually led the Israeli army, but rather as an indispensable “decoration” to show his leadership of the war as if it were a joint effort between him and his opponents.

He brought the two men to the war cabin, only to discover after a long experience that they were losers in the game of intelligence. They provided cover for him without providing them with participation, until their early exit became a dilemma. As for their late exit, which took place, it was like removing the decorations from the walls so that the war cabin was still with them. .

Netanyahu is an extremely complex dilemma, and an extremely dangerous one as well. During his reign, and especially in his current term, he is still achieving his plans without serious obstacles. He has obtained from the Americans the greatest political, armed, and financial support without being affected by the thin veneer that enveloped this support, which is embodied... By exaggerating in showing differences with him, and now he is preparing for a valuable visit to Washington, preceded by Congress’ approval of the largest aircraft deal concluded with Israel, it is no longer important for Netanyahu to drink coffee in the Oval Office, as Congress’s speech and its deals and what comes before and after are enough for him.

Netanyahu realizes that he needs something to convince voters to re-elect him, and therefore a mandatory path is to achieve convincing victories on the two main fronts that influence the Israeli mood and vote... the Gaza front and the southern Lebanon front.


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Netanyahu, Gantz, and the war cabinet


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