Fri 10 Nov 2023 3:51 am - Jerusalem Time

Hassan Nafaa: Israel has ready plans for displacement, and the most likely scenario is that the war will develop into a regional one

Dr. Hassan Nafaa, Professor of Political Science at Cairo University, proposed three scenarios for the war on Gaza: 

The first scenario, Israel succeeds in achieving its goals by prolonging the war; The second scenario: The war on Gaza continues for several weeks, during which Israel is exhausted, the fighting stops, and a prisoner exchange deal is concluded pending another decisive round. The third scenario: The war develops into a large-scale regional, and perhaps global, war through the entry of Hezbollah in full force, and perhaps parties from the axis of resistance, and Iran.

Nafaa analyzed the three scenarios, and their repercussions on the region and the world, as well as on the future of the Authority and the resistance, explaining that he ruled out the first scenario, which is Israel’s success in eliminating the Hamas movement and its rule, due to the steadfastness of the people of Gaza despite the more than 10,000 martyrs left by the war. And 26 thousand wounded, noting that the realization of this scenario will lead to the collapse of the Palestinian resistance, the decline of the influence of Iran and the axis of resistance, and the expansion of the influence of the United States, which will give Israel greater regional roles as a regulator in the region, in addition to the expansion of Turkey’s influence, and the imposition of normalization on the Arab countries.

Nafaa explained that the scenario of stopping the fighting after weeks will strengthen the resistance and give it a strong impetus, especially since it includes a prisoner exchange deal and the evacuation of Palestinian prisoners from all prisons, in addition to strengthening the role of Iran and the axis of resistance, the recovery of the influence of China and Russia, and the decline of the influence of the United States, in addition to the fall of Benjamin Netanyahu.

Nafaa suggested the scenario of the war turning into a regional one, with Hezbollah entering with full force, especially in light of Hezbollah’s equation that it would not allow Hamas to lose the war or attack Lebanon, although he ruled out Iran’s entry, explaining that in this scenario Israel might try to direct a strike on the Iranian nuclear reactor, confirming that the war in Gaza is part of the transformations in the international system, and this in turn is reflected in the role of both China and Russia.

This came during a dialogue session organized by the Palestinian Center for Policy Research and Strategic Studies (Masarat) entitled “The Regional and International Repercussions of the War on Gaza,” with the participation of more than 60 participants, including Palestinian and Arab politicians, academics, and researchers. The dialogue was moderated by Hani Al-Masry, General Director of Masarat Centre.

Nafaa said that the Al-Aqsa Flood operation was unprecedented and established a new era, as it inflicted a crushing defeat on Israel, and it differed from all the wars that were fought within the framework of the Arab-Israeli conflict, explaining that it was an amazing operation that launched from Palestinian land towards occupied lands in the year 1948, and in which the resistance used a Deception plan, and it succeeded, as happened in the October War of 1973, praising the performance of the resistance, its professionalism, its superior capabilities, and its military performance.

He explained that the Israeli reaction to the Al-Aqsa Flood operation was violent and of great brutality, pointing out that Israel had set high goals, which were to eradicate Hamas and overthrow its rule, thus ending the resistance completely, with security control over the Gaza Strip regardless of who rules the Gaza Strip after the war.

Nafaa criticized the weak and shameful position of the Arab countries. It is a shame to wait 5-6 weeks to hold the Arab summit, explaining that the Arab countries are clashing or colluding with Israel, and they can use many means of pressure, such as severing relations by withdrawing Arab ambassadors and expelling Israeli ambassadors, cutting off trade relations, and using oil weapons, noting the Arab countries are extremely embarrassed if they do not take punitive measures against Israel, so there must be public pressure on the regimes for them to take action.

Nafaa touched on displacement, pointing out that Israel has ready plans for displacement, and it wants to seize all Palestinian land and expel the population, and this is not in the Gaza Strip, but in the West Bank as well, explaining that there are projects ready to settle immigrants in Sinai.

In a question about the future of the Authority, he explained that its future depends on the outcome of the war.

The audience asked a set of questions about the repercussions of each of the scenarios on the future of the Palestinian Authority, the two-state solution, and displacement, as well as on the international system, and major projects such as the Belt and Road, and the trade route linking India to America, passing through the Gulf states and Israel, in addition to human rights, international law, and the role of the General Assembly. To the United Nations.

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Hassan Nafaa: Israel has ready plans for displacement, and the most likely scenario is that the war will develop into a regional one