The Struggle of Great Powers and the Ongoing War on Iran

Since the outbreak of the current war on Iran, questions and speculations have multiplied – not to mention wishes and complaints – about the potential role of both China and Russia, and whether either of them would intervene directly, especially since Iran is considered an ally of both great powers, and the war has American objectives that affect them. It is expected that, given the ongoing struggle between great powers to reshape the international system, they would seriously and directly confront America's attempts to solidify its sole hegemony over the world.

With the absence of indicators suggesting the possibility of direct intervention by China or Russia to support their ally Iran, a tone of frustration is rising here and there regarding what critics consider a dereliction of duty by these two countries, and a questioning not only of their intentions but also of their actual ability to confront America. To contribute to the current discussion about the expected role of China and Russia in this war, based on the history of international relations and the struggle between great powers, one can conclude that both countries will most likely refrain from direct confrontation with America, and will limit their participation to providing specific support to Iran. This is not due to a lack of desire or an admission of actual inability, but rather a conscious and informed result of serious calculations in the struggle of great powers. In short, what China and Russia are currently doing does not deviate from the traditional pattern of the history of great power struggles.***For a brief elaboration, the following points are worth noting: First, the stability of the international system is based on the principle of the balance of power. Until World War I, this stability was achieved in the form of multipolarity among European great powers, then it collapsed and transformed after World War II into stability based on bipolarity between America and the Soviet Union. The principle was disrupted by the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the international system shifted to unipolarity, with America at its apex as a sole superpower dominating international affairs. Although power is concentrated in the superpower in a unipolar system, the system loses its stability due to the growing conflict between this state, which tries to maintain its sole hegemony and exclude other powers from participation, and the great powers that seek to enhance their status and role and change the power equation that is wasted in favor of the superpower.

In short, these countries, each in its own way, seek to establish a new balance of power that transforms the international system from unipolarity to bipolarity or multipolarity. Second, since the collapse of international bipolarity in the early 1990s, two great powers, Russia and China, have emerged alongside the superpower, America, as candidates to challenge its influence and control on the international stage. Russia was a great power due to its nuclear arsenal, which was equivalent to America's. However, it is worth noting that it remained weak in its relative economic power compared to America and China, and it has strived since the beginning of the third millennium to consolidate its regional position, trying to repel the expansion of NATO in its vital sphere, until it began confronting it militarily in Ukraine. As for China, after adopting the principle of "socialism with Chinese characteristics" in the late 1970s, it liberalized its economy, which led to the beginning of its rise as a major economic power in the world, becoming currently the second-largest economy in the world, competing with the United States for the top position. Third, a great power cannot launch a serious competition with the superpower to end its monopoly on power and global hegemony until it can achieve hegemony over its region. Only major regional powers are capable of posing a threat to the continued hegemony of the superpower. Control over the region is achieved by a great power when it can achieve a continuous economic surplus that smoothly translates into building its military capability superior to its regional neighbors.

Among the currently existing great powers, such as China, Russia, India, Germany, Britain, Japan, France, and Brazil, there are only two countries that possess the characteristic of major regional powers: China and Russia. China is strengthening its control over the South and East China Seas, while Russia is consolidating its position in Eurasia. Control over the region and hegemony over its neighbors is the cornerstone for a major regional power to expand its influence and global control. This is what America did in the past when it established absolute hegemony over its western sphere in the Americas, and then proceeded to expand its global influence and control.

This is what China is currently doing by transitioning through the "Belt and Road Initiative" to expand its regional influence and control to include various regions in the world. Russia, however, remains the weakest among the three powers due to its weaker economic capabilities compared to them, which explains its limited ability to expand its influence beyond its region. Fourth, during its regional and international ascent, and in order not to suffer an early loss, major regional powers avoid direct confrontation, specifically military confrontation, with the superpower. Instead, they resort to indirect confrontation, using diplomatic, political, and soft means, in addition to providing veiled support to other forces opposing the superpower, in an effort to drain the superpower's energy and gradually weaken it.

To achieve this, these countries, especially China currently in its confrontation with America, resort to a policy of entangling the superpower. This policy places the full responsibility for international affairs on the superpower, so that this country, in order to maintain its unique position, becomes caught in the midst of monitoring all tensions and disputes that arise in the world, and actively engaging in trying to control their contexts to ensure the continued hegemony of its influence and control, which is steadily eroding.

This requires it to extend the reach of its power and expand the spread of its military presence around the world (America currently has about 800 military bases spread around the world). The external expansion of the superpower's power leads to three things that benefit the regional great powers struggling with it. On the one hand, it drains its surplus economic power to continue providing support for the expansion of its power externally, and in return reduces its ability to finance its internal requirements, which results in damage to its economy, weakening of its productivity, increase in its public debt, and a rise in the level of discontent, conflict, and fragmentation in the internal social fabric as a result. On the other hand, the escalation of challenges facing the superpower externally leads to a gradual shift in its foreign policy from following a path based on attracting other countries through persuasion with diplomatic and soft means, to adopting a harsh path represented by imposing the necessity of compliance. This leads the superpower to become involved in costly external conflicts and wars, both financially and morally draining, and makes it prone to committing more mistakes (the war in Afghanistan, the war in Iraq, the war on Gaza, the war on Iran). On a third hand, the superpower's harsh policy and its commission of errors increase the level of resentment and hostility towards it from an increasing number of parties in the world, leading to its increasing international isolation over time. All of this happens while the regional great powers carefully monitor the curve of the superpower's eroding power and the continuous decline in its global influence and hegemony, and calmly and deliberately work to invest this in the confident development of their alternative ascent.***In the struggle between great powers, and specifically when there is a clear imbalance of power, major regional powers avoid direct confrontation with the superpower.

This does not mean at all that they surrender to that country's hegemony, but rather they work hard to undermine its position by adopting indirect means. These countries know that direct confrontation with the superpower, before they can consolidate the foundations of their regional and international power, may lead to a loss that could be significant in limiting their ascent. Achieving victory in the struggle with the superpower, for them, is not achieved by a knockout blow, but by accumulating points. China, since the beginning of its rise, and especially since the beginning of the current millennium, has been accumulating points, and it is not in a hurry, as it announced years ago that by 2049 (the centenary of the Chinese Communist Party's rise to power) it would be the leading power at the top of the international system. While Russia struggles to secure a decent position for itself in the currently transforming international system, the United States is becoming more arrogant and haughty and committing more mistakes as it tries as much as possible to delay, if not prevent, collapse.