The intense military strikes targeting Iranian territory by the United States and Israel represent a dramatic shift in regional power dynamics. The repercussions of these attacks are not limited to Iran's internal affairs but also extend to cast a shadow over Tehran's allies in the region, foremost among them the Houthi group in Yemen, which organically relies on Iranian support.
The recent military operations have resulted in the killing of pivotal figures in the Iranian power hierarchy, most notably the Supreme Leader, which weakens the command and control center of the Iranian regional project. In contrast, Iran's indiscriminate missile and drone responses have caused damage to Arab countries, further intensifying international and regional condemnations against the Tehran regime and its allies.
Observers believe that weakening Iran will inevitably lead to the erosion of the Houthis' ability to maneuver in Yemen, especially since the group has controlled the capital Sana'a and vast areas for over a decade. The group's fate is linked to the continuity of financial and military support that reached it through Iranian Revolutionary Guard channels, which are now under direct targeting scrutiny.
On the ground, the group had previously suffered painful blows, including the killing of its prime minister, Ahmed Al-Rahawi, and several of his ministers in Israeli raids. Despite the group's leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi's assurances of combat readiness, the deteriorating economic reality in their controlled areas limits their ability to engage in a broad and long-term regional confrontation.
Researcher Dr. Adel Dashila indicates that the repercussions will be significant for all parties loyal to Tehran in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen alike. He believes that a direct expansion of the war might push the Houthis to intervene to complicate matters, but this would make the military option to remove them from the scene an urgent regional and international demand, supported by lurking local forces.
If the group chooses not to escalate militarily directly and contents itself with political stances, it will find itself in a very weak negotiating position in any upcoming political process. The outcomes of the current conflict, according to political readings, will not allow the Iranian project to expand again, meaning that the Houthis will lose their ability to impose the conditions they were accustomed to previously.
For his part, Adnan Al-Jabri, a journalist specializing in military affairs, links the extent of the impact to the degree of damage that will be inflicted specifically on the structure of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. The Houthis rely entirely on Tehran in complex military technology fields and the transfer of technical expertise necessary to operate and develop long-range missile and drone systems.
The cessation of arms smuggling operations or a decline in direct financial support will quickly deplete the group's armament stockpile. Although they possess the ability for self-fighting in internal wars, their regional ambitions will clash with the absence of logistical and technical support provided by Iranian experts present in operations rooms.
Attention is now turning to the new Iranian leadership and the extent of its conviction in the feasibility of continuing to fund regional proxies after the severe blows it has received. If Tehran becomes preoccupied with its internal crises and attempts to preserve the regime's survival, the Houthis will find themselves politically and militarily isolated in the face of increasing international and local pressures.
At the level of the Yemeni street, there is concern about the country being dragged into a new regional conflict that will exacerbate the suffering of citizens, which has continued for 11 years. Yemenis aspire to restore security and stability away from axis politics and believe that the country's interest lies in neutralizing it from tug-of-wars that serve external agendas at the expense of national sovereignty.
Citizens in Sana'a believe that any new Houthi adventure to support Iran would be political and military suicide for the group in light of widespread international rejection. Popular priority is focused on improving deteriorating living conditions, not entering proxy wars that increase Yemen's isolation and destroy what remains of its dilapidated infrastructure.
The close link between the Houthis and Tehran has made the group's future hostage to the major geopolitical shifts currently sweeping the region. The more the power of the center in Tehran declines, the more its affiliated parties lose their ability to influence, opening the door to new scenarios that could radically reshape the political map in Yemen.
Ultimately, it seems the group faces two bitter choices: either escalation and risking an all-out military confrontation that could end their existence, or political retreat and accepting a settlement that does not grant them the 'lion's share.' Both paths ultimately lead to the weakening of their influence, which they derived for years from the Iranian momentum in the region.
Sources confirm that the next phase will be decisive in determining the identity of the future Yemeni state, as the weakening of the Iranian axis will reduce the Houthis' recklessness. The group will have to adapt to international changes that do not accept the presence of armed entities threatening international navigation or neighborhood security, which puts their project to the real test of survival.
The future of the Houthi group is linked to the outcomes of this war, which will not be in favor of the Iranian project, meaning their removal from power, peacefully or by war.
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Repercussions of Strikes Against Tehran: Is the Era of Houthi Influence in Yemen Nearing Its End?