Some informed sources in the Palestinian resistance reveal that Lebanese channels informed the leaders of the Hamas movement, in the name of the United States and its official institutions, that any forces belonging to the American army and present in the occupied territories of Palestine or even in the vicinity “will not participate” under any circumstances in field operations accompanied by the Israeli army in Gaza strip.

Media and other field reports and testimonies of some people in the Gaza Strip spoke of monitoring soldiers placing the American flag inside the Gaza Strip during the course of Israeli operations, and speaking English, but sources in the Pentagon denied this completely.

It seems that the American side was interested in clarifying the matter with some parties in the axis of resistance, on the basis that the only military force that was sent into the occupied Palestinian territories by the US Department of Defense and the Central Command of the US Army was the one that was made up of about 2,000 fighters, most of whom were advisors and not men of direct military action, and among them were The profound message in this direction is that this force arrived in occupied Palestine, or what is called Israel, and its strength is about 2,000 armed American soldiers, advisors, and technicians on the afternoon of last October 8.

The goal of this force is not to participate in field operations of the Israeli army, neither on the Gaza front nor on the front of occupied northern Palestine, but rather to secure and protect two nuclear reactors located in Israel, the first in the Dimona region and the second in the Tubnah desert region.

The American explanations here indicated that the goal of the American Central Command in securing the two reactors has nothing to do with the course of the Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip. Rather, this insurance’s primary goal, according to the explanations sent to the resistance factions, is to seize control of those nuclear reactors as they are very sensitive strategic and security installations.

What is intended is after the Central Command receives quick directives regarding these facilities to isolate and protect them from mutual bombardment and any operations, whether from the Israeli army or even resistance factions, and then prevent the Prime Minister and the Israeli right-wing government led by Benjamin Netanyahu from using these reactors by exploiting the current conditions or using them either at the tactical level. Small or large regional level against the Republic of Iran.

The most important thing is to surround two American nuclear facilities to prevent any party in the axis of resistance from targeting them, while providing them with the latest air defense technologies.

These clarifications reached the resistance leadership exclusively through a Lebanese channel trusted by all parties and are believed to be linked to the former Director of Lebanese Public Security, Major General Abbas Ibrahim, who is a pivotal figure in transmitting messages and exchanging notes between the Americans and the Hamas movement on the one hand and between them and Hezbollah on the other hand.

The Gaza Strip possesses wealth and natural resources worth billions of dollars, which may be the reason behind the rush of great powers, the first of which is the United States, to support Israel in destroying Gaza and displacing its population.

Oil and gas reserves in the Palestinian territories are estimated at about 1.5 billion barrels of crude and 1.4 trillion cubic feet of blue fuel, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), while Israel deprives the Palestinians of exploiting them and benefiting from their revenues.

The conference said in its report: “Geologists and economists in the field of natural resources have confirmed that the occupied Palestinian territory lies above large reservoirs of oil and natural gas wealth, in Area C of the occupied West Bank and the Mediterranean coast off the Gaza Strip.”

The report noted that “the exploitation of Palestinian natural resources, including oil and natural gas, by the occupying Authority imposes huge costs on the Palestinian people that continue to escalate as the occupation continues. This not only contravenes international law, but also violates natural justice and moral law.” “So far, the real costs and opportunity costs of occupation exclusively in oil and natural gas have accumulated to tens, if not hundreds of billions of dollars.”

The "Gaza Marine" field, located about 30 kilometers from the coast of Gaza between the giant "Luthian" and "Zahr" gas fields, is one of the important energy fields in the eastern Mediterranean region.

The field contains more than one trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and in the past the task of exploring the field was entrusted to British Gas, but the company’s work stopped due to political disputes and Israeli interference, especially since Tel Aviv deliberately thwarted any attempt to develop it, to make Palestine its subsidiary. Entirely in the field of energy.

The Gaza Marine field remained undeveloped, while Israel has been producing natural gas in the eastern Mediterranean for years. Israel exports some gas to its neighbors, and seeks to direct more shipments to Europe, which is in dire need of blue fuel, which is the reason behind the great Western support for Tel Aviv.

In an indication of the importance of the Gaza Strip's location, UNCTAD indicated that oil and natural gas discoveries in the Levant Basin, amounting to 122 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, are valued at approximately $453 billion.

According to international laws and agreements, the Palestinians have the right to exploit their natural and underground resources, but the Israeli attack on the Gaza Strip may turn these hopes into a mirage.

The American website "Mondoweiss" published a report in which it confirmed that the only solution that would stop the ongoing genocide in Gaza is for the Israeli army to suffer a defeat, as happened to it when it invaded southern Lebanon.

  The website said in its report that the Gaza Strip is being subjected to the most intense bombing in the history of the Middle East, which has already been torn by conflicts, and the mass killings of Palestinian civilians by Israeli forces are being committed on a daily basis. On the other hand, there is a growing belief that there is a level of death, destruction and suffering beyond which Western governments will stop or It significantly reduces its participation in the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip, as well as its support for its actions.

But this assumption - according to the site - reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of how such governments set their policies. Until the present moment, Israel has imposed a comprehensive blockade on the Gaza Strip, depriving an entire community of all basic supplies except oxygen. Entire towns and neighborhoods were destroyed. Within one month, more than 10,000 people were killed and perhaps three times that number injured, more than a third of them children.

  The website added that the Israeli bombing campaign has no legitimate military purpose or goal, but rather its clear goal is terrorism, revenge, physical destruction, and punishment of the entire society. The bombing campaign did not weaken the military capabilities of the Palestinian organizations in the Gaza Strip in any way. According to its own statistics, Israel has killed more UN employees than Palestinian military commanders.

If the scale of Palestinian death, destruction and suffering had actually played a role in Western governments' calculations, it would have made a difference. While Israeli forces directly and repeatedly bomb schools, hospitals, refugee queues, UN facilities, self-declared safe zones, and all forms of civilian infrastructure, most Western governments proudly continue to support the Israeli government. Pope Francis is almost the only Western leader who did not visit Netanyahu.

The site stated that during the siege of Beirut in 1982, the previous Israeli attacks on the Gaza Strip, and almost all other Israeli campaigns against the Palestinians since 1948 and especially after 1967, the policies of Western governments revolved around “Israel’s right to defend itself,” which is considered a duty and obligation, and it is the right The same thing that these governments have not granted to the Palestinian people on a single occasion since 1917.

For example, in 2023 US and European Union officials began referring for the first time to specific massacres of settlers in the West Bank as “terrorism.” However, they conspicuously refrained from stating that Palestinians have the right to defend themselves against terrorism. Instead, they called on the state that armed the settlers, deployed them as auxiliary militias to implement its policies, and ensured impunity for their actions, to exercise restraint. When governments cite Israel's right to self-defense against an occupied people, they are, in effect, supporting Israel's right to dispossess an entire people and seize their lands.

The website emphasized that what will bring about a change in the essence of Western policy is the Israeli military failure. For this reason, the Biden administration has devoted more energy to forcing Israel to formulate achievable goals. To give a prominent recent example in this regard, in 2006 US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice cheerfully welcomed Israel's war against Lebanon as "the birth pangs of a new Middle East." Confident that Israel would crush Hezbollah, the United States strongly rejected efforts to achieve a cessation of hostilities. 

But once Israeli armored columns and ground forces faced carnage when they attempted to advance into southern Lebanon, the United States immediately changed its tune and pleaded with the United Nations Security Council to adopt a ceasefire resolution.

In 1982, the United States gave Israel the green light to eliminate the Palestine Liberation Organization in Lebanon. Once it became clear that it lacked the capacity to occupy West Beirut, the Reagan administration sent Philip Habib to negotiate an agreement to protect the PLO. In other words, as long as the United States and other Western governments reject the truce in Gaza and focus on meaningless phrases such as “humanitarian truces,” it means that they still believe that Israel will or can succeed. If they reversed their position, this would mean that they concluded that Israel had failed.

The site noted that the alternative scenario is that Western governments have concluded that their behavior and Israel's behavior constitute a major threat to their own interests, and that the time has come to end the war. This could come in the form of growing instability in the region, threats facing puppet regimes within it, and the possibility of an expanded war that would require direct intervention, which the United States prefers to avoid, not to mention concerns about domestic economic or security repercussions, or partisan political possibilities or electoral calculations. .

In the absence of accountability or any opportunity for Israel to bear any consequences for its behavior - there has never been an example in which Israel has faced significant and sustained repercussions for its policies since 1948, so Israel knows it can move forward undeterred.

Arabic21

The majority of Jews in Israel support implementing measures against Gaza, which have received international criticism, such as preventing food and medicine supplies to the Strip; Respondents also showed a willingness to accept damage to democratic values through the adoption of emergency regulations during a period of war.

An opinion poll, the results of which were published on Monday, revealed that the majority of the Israeli public, 66%, largely supports holding elections in the country at the end of the war on Gaza, which continues for the thirty-eighth day.

The poll conducted by the Institute for Freedom and Responsibility at Reichmann University in Herzliya, in cooperation with iPanel, showed that the majority of Jews in Israel support implementing measures against Gaza that have received international criticism, such as preventing food and medicine supplies to the Strip; Survey participants also showed a willingness to accept harm to democratic values by adopting emergency regulations during a period of war, according to what the Walla website reported.

The results of the survey show a feeling of distrust among citizens in the state and its ability to help in times of need. Only 19% of the public confirmed that they feel to a large extent that they can rely on state assistance when needed, while 36% reported that they feel this to some extent, while 44% indicated that their confidence in the state’s ability to provide assistance is less than that.

According to the poll, the Jewish public supports the various measures that the Israeli army is using or may use in the Gaza Strip, and they have already received strong international criticism. For example, on the “legitimacy” scale, which ranges from 1 to 7, the Jewish respondents answered that preventing the entry of food into Gaza is legitimate at a level of 5.7, according to them, and the percentage was also similar in the case of preventing the entry of medicines into Gaza.

Regarding cutting off electricity and fuel from Gaza, the Jews supported this at a level of 6.3, while support rose to 6.6 in the case of bombing residential neighborhoods in which the Israeli army claims that Hamas was present, and it reached a level of 6 in the case of bombing hospitals in which fighters are present.

The poll showed the Israeli public's willingness to accept significant damage to democratic values, after the government exercised its authority several times to pass emergency regulations, without public discussion and Knesset approval since the beginning of the war.

While the government's judicial advisor, Gali Bharav Meara, explained that emergency regulations do not constitute a legitimate legislative tool in general, and must be used in very exceptional cases; The poll showed that the majority of the public, 52%, largely supports imposing emergency regulations, while 26% supports it to some extent.

In this regard, the poll showed that support for emergency regulations is higher among coalition voters (74%) than among opposition voters (39%).

The poll also revealed widespread support for restricting freedom of expression, which affects Arab citizens the most, as 69% of participants responded that they largely support banning demonstrations “out of sympathy with the residents of Gaza.”

On the other hand, the public is more hesitant about banning demonstrations demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu; In the sample polled, the percentage of those who strongly support banning this is 42%.

Ministers and members of Likud are considering dismissing Netanyahu with a vote of no confidence

In a related context, ministers and Knesset members in Likud are considering the dismissal of party leader Netanyahu, in a vote of no confidence in him, in light of “the situation in Gaza being discussed the day after the war, and the political system (in Israel) being discussed the next day.” According to what Israeli Channel 13 reported in a report on Monday evening.

According to the report, until the past few days, this was not the case in the statements of Likud politicians, even if they were high-ranking, in not revealing their positions regarding the day following the end of the war. But "in recent days, the matter seems a little more serious, whether because of the number of Knesset members and ministers participating in the consultations, or because opposition party leaders have begun to participate" in this regard.

The report stated, “The rationale of Likud Knesset members is that if Netanyahu remains at the head of the party and Israel heads to elections, and in the event of Likud’s possible defeat, many of them will no longer form an important part of the political system.” Therefore, “a large group (of Likud), based on this background, began to examine the possibility that after completing the important ground step, that is, even after Minister Benny Gantz leaves the emergency government, they will move to a step of no confidence” against Netanyahu.

If such a step is taken, “the government will be headed by a senior Likud leader, who will commit not to run in the next elections.”

Confrontations broke out between citizens and Israeli occupation forces, Monday evening, in the town of Ya'bad and the village of Jalboun, in Jenin Governorate.

According to local sources, the occupation forces stormed the town of Ya'bad, leading to confrontations during which soldiers fired rubber-coated metal bullets, stun grenades and tear gas, but no injuries were reported.

In the same context, the occupation forces stormed the village of Jalboun, leading to the outbreak of confrontations.

The Director of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) in the Gaza Strip, Thomas White, warned on Monday that the agency’s humanitarian operations would be halted within 48 hours because fuel would not be allowed to enter the Gaza Strip, against which the Israeli occupation forces have launched an aggression since the 7th of last month.

According to European Euronews, White said, “Two of the agency’s main contractors stopped working this morning because they ran out of fuel,” indicating that this would deprive 200,000 people of drinking water in the besieged Strip.

Introduction

Two days after the Al-Aqsa Flood operation launched by the Islamic Resistance Movement “Hamas” on October 7, 2023, targeting Israeli military sites and settlements in the vicinity of the Gaza Strip, the Israeli security mini-ministerial “cabinet” declared a state of war, and prevented the arrival of water and electricity supplies. And fuel and food supplies to the already besieged sector. 

The Israeli government took advantage of the strongly supportive American position to launch a fierce military operation with an open horizon in the hope of bringing about a radical change in the Gaza Strip, and through it the Palestinian issue and the entire region, according to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. But with the change in the international “mood” as a result of the policies of collective punishment practiced by Israel against civilians, and the targeting of hospitals and schools, the question becomes more urgent about the extent to which the Netanyahu government can continue its aggression against Gaza in light of its inability to achieve some or all of the goals it set for the war. In fact, there is a group of factors that lead to prolonging the war, while another group may contribute to shortening its duration.

Factors that lead to prolonging the war

1. Difficulty in achieving war goals: 

Israel has set itself a number of difficult goals, namely eliminating the military power of Hamas and its rule in the Gaza Strip. Then it added two other goals: returning the Israeli prisoners and abductees and achieving victory in an unequivocal manner. The difficulty of achieving these goals stems from the fact that this requires the Israeli army to completely occupy the Gaza Strip, in light of the presence of about 2.3 million Palestinians, which means committing widespread massacres and crimes against humanity without this necessarily leading to achieving the goals of the war.

Since the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982, the Israeli army has not fought an urban war, and its readiness and the capabilities of its ground forces have not been tested, with there being a widespread belief within Israel that they are unprepared. The Israeli army uses three divisions in its war on Gaza City and the areas north of the Gaza Strip. His forces are advancing there very slowly to avoid causing major losses among their ranks, which would prolong the war. Despite the Israeli army’s superiority in numbers and equipment, its use of road-clearing bulldozers for tanks, tracked vehicles, and other military vehicles, and its support and advice from American military experts in urban warfare, it finds it extremely difficult to advance in Gaza City due to the stubborn resistance it faces. The Palestinian resistance fighters know the area well, and are trained in urban warfare. 

They suddenly appear from tunnels, trenches, from among the rubble, or from the buildings that are still standing, and direct their anti-tank missiles and light weapons against its tanks, vehicles, and soldiers, and then quickly disappear. Therefore, the Israeli army finds it very difficult to occupy Gaza City and eliminate the resistance there. Israeli Security Minister Yoav Galant and Army Chief of Staff Herzi Halevy believe that the army needs many weeks, or months, to occupy Gaza City and the entire northern Gaza Strip and eliminate resistance there.

Even if the Israeli army is able to occupy Gaza City and the northern region of the Strip, this does not mean that Israel has achieved the goals of the war, because Hamas may nevertheless maintain at least part of its military capabilities, which means that Israel will then go, if the powers cannot Regional and international, from stopping its aggression against the Gaza Strip, to occupying its center and south; This will require additional months, according to what Israeli military commanders say. Even if the Israeli army is able to occupy the entire Gaza Strip, this does not mean the end of military operations there, as resistance may continue in the form of commando operations against the Israeli army forces in the Strip.

2. The Israeli leadership has set achieving decisive victory as a primary goal of the war on the Gaza Strip, along with eliminating Hamas and its rule. 

The concept of victory here includes rebuilding the deterrence capacity and restoring the prestige of the army and security institutions that collapsed on October 7, and this matter takes a long time to achieve. Israeli leaders realize that it is difficult to erase the defeat inflicted on Israel by Operation Al-Aqsa Flood and its strategy, perceptions and assumptions towards the Gaza Strip, at a time when various forms of Israeli strategic, military and intelligence failure are still clearly visible. 

What increases the bitterness of the defeat on October 7 is that the party that directed the strike against Israel was not a large country to be reckoned with, but rather a resistance movement in the small Gaza Strip that has been besieged since 2007, killing more than 1,400 soldiers in Israel in one day. And civilians, and several thousand wounded, and about 240 others captured, some of whom were taken from their military bases, including the headquarters of the “Gaza Division” in the Israeli army and the “Yarkon” base of Military Intelligence (Aman), which is considered one of the most important military intelligence bases in Israel.[ 1], Palestinian resistance members also occupied about 20 Israeli kibbutzim and continued “fighting there for about two full days”[2].

For the Israeli leadership, achieving victory does not only mean eliminating Hamas and its rule in the Gaza Strip, but it also means, to a greater extent, teaching the Palestinians an unforgettable lesson for daring to resist and humiliate Israel by inflicting the greatest possible number of losses of life and property, and committing massacres. Successive attacks against civilians, within the framework of what has become known in Israeli literature as “cauterization of consciousness.” Committing successive massacres against Palestinian civilians is not necessary to eliminate Hamas and its rule in the Gaza Strip, nor does it come only to satisfy the instinct for revenge, but rather, according to the concept of “causing consciousness,” it is part of the equation for achieving victory, in which the Palestinian losses in lives and property must not be proportional in any way to Israeli losses. 

The victory equation is an important part of the process of restoring deterrence and prestige to the Israeli army locally, regionally and internationally. It means, as the Israeli Minister of Agriculture and member of the Political Security Cabinet, Avi Dichter, stated, committing a second Nakba against the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, greater than the first Nakba in terms of the number of deaths and displacement.

The statements of Israel's political and military leaders come, such as Netanyahu's statement about the "extermination of Amalek", Halevy's speech to his soldiers, clips of which were broadcast on Israeli television, stating the need to annihilate the enemy, the statements of many Israeli leaders and analysts about the need to erase Gaza from the map, and the statement of Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu from the Judaism Power Party, regarding the use of nuclear weapons against the Gaza Strip as one of the possible possibilities[3], in the context of achieving the equation of victory over the Palestinians.

3. Prolonging the war serves Netanyahu, Gallant, and the leaders of the military and security establishment, especially the Chief of General Staff, the head of Military Intelligence (Aman), the head of General Intelligence (Shin Bet), the head of Mossad, the commander of the Air Force, and the commander of the southern region in the Israeli army, as they are responsible for the “disaster” of October 7. 

With the exception of Netanyahu, the leaders of the Israeli military and security establishment announced that they bear responsibility for the failure that occurred that day. Netanyahu, Gallant, and the leaders of the military and security establishment believe that prolonging the war and moving away from October 7 may reduce the burden of criticism and calls to hold them accountable for failure and negligence, and that achieving the goals of the war, or some of them, including committing massacres against Palestinian civilians and demonstrating the destruction. The massive inflict by the Israeli army on the Gaza Strip may satisfy the Israelis’ instinct for revenge and alleviate their resentment towards those responsible for the negligence and failure, and may score positive points for the leaders of the political and security establishment in the official investigation committee that is certain to be formed upon the completion of the war on Gaza.

4. The differences, tensions, and mistrust that exist between Netanyahu on the one hand and Gallant and the leaders of the military and security establishment on the other hand contribute to prolonging the war, as each of them seeks to appear as the party most committed to the war’s goals, within the framework of continuous bidding aimed at winning over Israeli public opinion.

5. The military support that the United States provides to Israel contributes to prolonging the war, because it now has enough ammunition to continue it for a long period.

Factors that affect stopping aggression

There are a number of factors that may push Israel to reconsider its calculations and stop the aggression against the Gaza Strip, the most important of which are:

1. The position of the American administration is one of the most important factors that can influence Israel’s decision to stop the aggression against the Gaza Strip. The US administration so far supports Israel's goal of eliminating Hamas rule in Gaza, but American support for Israel is not open-ended, and may change if Israel fails to achieve its goals during the next few weeks, especially if opposition increases within the United States to the policy of supporting Israel's war on Gaza. And it has begun to seriously affect the chances of Joe Biden being re-elected to the US presidency, if it also becomes clear that its continued support for the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip may harm American interests in the region, or weaken its position in the face of a global public opinion whose opposition to Israeli crimes and violations in Gaza is growing.

2. Israeli society is extremely sensitive to the losses that the army can suffer during military confrontations. So far, Israeli public opinion seems ready to bear losses at the current rates, considering that the price is acceptable for restoring what happened on October 7, but if the losses increase significantly, this will affect public opinion’s position on the war, and it may begin to exert pressure to finish it.

3. The Israeli army relies heavily on reserve forces, thousands of whom were called up for duty in the early days of the war. Although it is not known precisely how many reserve forces have been called up and are actually serving in the Israeli army currently, and even if the number of reserve forces serving in the Israeli army is less than 360,000 as some Israeli media reports stated, keeping them in service causes great harm to the Israeli economy, which constitutes a pressure factor to shorten the war, even if it requires changing its objectives.

4. It is expected that pressure will increase to quickly end the war from about 125,000 displaced Israelis who were evacuated from the area adjacent to the Gaza Strip and the area adjacent to the Lebanese-Israeli border, to inside Israel. They want to return to their areas and live their lives normally.

5. Large sectors of the Israeli economy are exposed to significant losses due to the continued aggression against Gaza. There is conflicting data about the extent of the losses to the Israeli economy, but it is clear that the continuation of the war for a long period will inflict huge losses on the Israeli economy and may cause a severe economic crisis.

Conclusion

The chances of forcing Israel to stop its aggressive war on the Gaza Strip remain weak. The factors driving its continuation seem more likely at this stage, especially in light of the failure to achieve any of its goals so far. Retreat at this stage will be seen as a new defeat, the consequences of which Israel cannot bear at the level of deterrence. In addition, the continuation of the war benefits Israel's political and military leaders on a personal level, because it strengthens their position if they achieve some of the war's goals before the investigation committees that will be formed to hold those responsible for the negligence and failure that occurred on October 7 accountable. Without a stronger Arab position and great pressure on the American administration, Israel is likely to act according to its own time in its aggressive war against the Gaza Strip.

[1] Ronen Bergman and Itay Ilnai, “Investigation: The series of incomprehensible errors that led to the October 7 surprise,” Yedioth Ahronoth Supplement, 10/20/2023. (in Hebrew)

[2] Sima Kadmon, “This Will Not Be a Victory,” Yedioth Ahronoth, 11/10/2023. (in Hebrew)

[3] Yehontan Liss, Noah Spiegel, and Jackie Khoury, “Minister Eliyahu: Nuclear power in Gaza is one way, this Netanyahu is disconnected from reality,” Haaretz, 11/5/2023, viewed on 11/13/2023, at: https:// bit.ly/47xz6pd (in Hebrew)

Source: Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies

The Jordanian House of Representatives unanimously agreed on Monday to invite its president, Ahmed Al-Safadi, to review the agreements signed with Israel and provide recommendations to the government, according to the Council’s account on the X platform (formerly Twitter).

Ahmed Al-Safadi said, according to a video clip published by the “Al-Mamlaka” channel of the parliament session on Monday: “I call on, in your name, the legal committee to review the agreements signed with (the usurping entity) and to make the necessary recommendations regarding them in order to present them to the government, to be conditional on stopping the aggression against Gaza.”

Al-Safadi added: “I place this proposal in the hands of any colleagues who wish to present it to the Council for a vote on it, as the bylaws do not allow the President of the Council to submit proposals.”

The Speaker of the Jordanian House of Representatives affirmed during the Council session: “I call on the Legal Committee to establish a framework, through official channels, before the International Criminal Court to investigate and hold accountable the war crimes and genocide committed in Gaza, and to circulate this step to the Arab and Islamic parliaments.”

Ahmed Al-Safadi added: “Some are practicing theorizing about the resistance in the steps it is taking, and we say to them: (You have nothing to do with what the resistance decides. Remain silent. They are the owners of the land and the cause, and you are the ones who have failed, and it is not permissible for the one who is sitting to issue a fatwa to the resistance).”

Al-Safadi pointed out that “the efforts of the Jordanian monarch, King Abdullah II, contributed to changing global public opinion, after he had been led by the (false entity) narrative,” he said.

Isaac Brick

The Israeli army has succeeded, so far, in removing parts of Gaza City from the face of the earth, while Israeli army forces are moving towards the heart of Gaza City. There were almost no clashes with Hamas "saboteurs" above ground, and no enemy combatants stood in front of the Israeli army. As is known, Hamas chose to hide in underground tunnels, instead of fighting the Israeli army. The army was able to kill a few hundred "saboteurs" in the movement's sites that the army decided to attack, and in these attacks, we lost quite a few victims.

We have not yet begun working to achieve the goal for which we launched this campaign, which is to eliminate the rule of the Hamas and Islamic Jihad movements in the Gaza Strip. There are tens of thousands of “saboteurs” hiding in tunnels extending about a thousand kilometers in length under Gaza City, in the southern Gaza Strip, Khan Yunis, and other towns. The talk is about two Hamas brigades in Gaza City, and three Hamas brigades in the southern Gaza Strip, where we have not yet begun fighting.

Simultaneously with the process of removing these parts of Gaza City, international pressure began calling for an end to the fighting there. The source of this pressure is the thousands of dead Gazans not involved in the hostilities, whose images are spread all over television channels around the world, and in some countries we are given names such as “child killers and perpetrators of war crimes.” These international pressures also stem from the situation experienced by approximately two million Gazans in the southern Gaza Strip, where hundreds of thousands of them fled Gaza City. They live in very dire conditions, with very serious humanitarian problems, and the imminent arrival of winter may make their deteriorating situation much worse.

Pressure on Israel from countries around the world is increasing, due to the possibility of the war expanding into a regional war. All of this will not provide the Israeli army with the time required to address the issue of the tens of thousands of “terrorists” present in the city of tunnels located under Gaza City, and it will certainly not allow the issue of the tens of thousands of “terrorists” present in the southern Gaza Strip, in the Khan Yunis area, to be addressed. And the towns we haven't reached yet. The goal of the war, as we mentioned, is to uproot Hamas’ authority in the Gaza Strip and its military structure, but estimates indicate that this uprooting process will take a few years.

Our entry into the fighting in the southern Gaza Strip (in Deir al-Balah, then Khan Yunis), after completing our activity in Gaza City, will force us this time to displace about two million Gazans, some of whom live in that area, and some of whom fled from Gaza City to South, with our encouragement, so that they can receive humanitarian assistance. Where exactly can we emigrate these people to? Will the world agree to displacement? Do we have a chance to fight for the next two years in the Gaza Strip?

The solution is for the political echelon to announce that in exchange for us recovering the 240 kidnapped sons of ours, it will stop the campaign. This is a request that the world will understand, and after we get the kidnapped ones, we will think about how we can continue.

The catastrophe that Israel experienced on October 7 exposed the Israeli rejectionist front, headed by Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu's words in the press conference the day before yesterday indicate that the destructive theory that he leads still exists. Not only does he maintain Israel's overall security control over the Gaza Strip, but he declared that "there will be no civil authority to pay salaries to the families of the 'killers.'" Here he means the Palestinian Authority, headed by Mahmoud Abbas.

It seems that Netanyahu's words are directed inward, and his goal is to fortify his authority. He himself expressed reservations about the return of Israeli civilian control over the region, and thus distanced himself from the messianic extreme right. But it is difficult to find an Arab or international party that would volunteer to bear this difficult task, and the Palestinian Authority is the only one that can bear responsibility for the 2.2 million Palestinian residents of the Gaza Strip. 

The campaign that Netanyahu is waging against power is devastating, and indicates that there has been no change in theory.

Netanyahu must say “no” to “terrorism,” and “yes” to the diplomatic channel, and not just to security cooperation. The Authority's leadership has previously made clear that the condition for its return to Gaza is a return to the negotiating table regarding the two-state solution. President Joe Biden also made clear that he adheres to this solution. The meeting between Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and PA President Abbas confirms that the United States sees the PA as a partner for Israel in the political solution.

The disaster of October 7, and the multi-front confrontation that began after it, brought together the Palestinian issue with the Iranian issue and its branches. The Prime Minister, who remains silent about those who stir up strife, such as Ministers Yisrael Katz and Avi Dichter, who talk about a “second Nakba,” and others who dream of returning to Gush Katif, is endangering the peace agreements with Jordan and Egypt and the Abraham Accords. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has publicly announced that the normalization of relations with Israel is conditional on the progress of the settlement with the Palestinians. A political process that would give the Palestinian Authority a broad umbrella from the Arab League and Islamic countries.

Netanyahu continues his strategy that has brought Israel to the abyss: pushing the Palestinian Authority into a corner, with the aim of thwarting any possibility of a two-state solution. And the coalition cooperation with the settlers’ party, the result of which was to ignite the region, instead of asking the Minister of Defense to put an end to the incitement carried out by settler rioters who do whatever they want, and to open a diplomatic channel with Abbas.

Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot should not be satisfied with participating in military steps, defending the home front, and feeling “together we win.” They must explain well to Netanyahu that going to all-out war must include ending the political boycott imposed on the Palestinian Authority, and restoring its standing among the Palestinian people and Israeli citizens.

Jordanian King Abdullah II confirmed on Monday that any scenario or idea of reoccupying parts of Gaza or establishing buffer zones there will exacerbate the crisis, stressing that this is unacceptable and is considered an attack on Palestinian rights.

The king reiterated his statement during his meeting with the heads of the Senate and House of Representatives, former prime ministers and politicians, according to Petra Agency, that neither the military nor the security solution can succeed, stressing that the war must be stopped and a serious political process should be launched that leads to a two-state solution.

He also stressed the importance of the unity of the Palestinian territories and supporting the legitimate authority, warning that Gaza should not be separated from the rest of the Palestinian territories.

He stressed that the highest priority today is to stop the war on Gaza and bring in sufficient aid, calling on the international community to stop the humanitarian catastrophe in the Strip immediately, out of respect for international law and the Charter of the United Nations.

His Majesty considered that what Gaza is witnessing in terms of collective punishment, the killing of civilians, and the demolition of all vital facilities, including hospitals and places of worship, are not acceptable to heavenly laws or human values, noting that he clearly warned that the Israeli violations in the West Bank, including Jerusalem, and the attacks of the colonialists will lead to the explosion of the situation in The region and the expansion of the conflict.

He reiterated that the origin of the crisis is the occupation and the deprivation of Palestinians of their legitimate rights, and said, "The solution starts from here. Any other path will result in failure and more cycles of violence and destruction."

His Majesty stressed that no one can compete with Jordan’s firm position and its continuous efforts to defend our people in Gaza, and said, “We have been and will remain the strong support and main support for our brothers in Palestine,” indicating that Jordan’s positions towards the Palestinian issue are firm and stem from an absolute belief that what links us to Palestine It is a shared history and future.

“We realize that increasing pressure has begun on Israel,” Cohen said, adding: “I estimate that this is a window of time of two to three weeks until the heavy international pressure begins” on Tel Aviv.

Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen reported increasing pressure on Israel regarding its ongoing war on the Gaza Strip, estimating that the pressure will increase significantly within two or three weeks.

“We realize that increasing pressure has begun on Israel,” Cohen said, adding: “I estimate that this is a window of time of two to three weeks, until heavy international pressure begins” on Tel Aviv.

According to the Israeli Foreign Ministry, “Israel received the green light for a military response after October 7, and is now at the end of the orange light, before the red light.”

This comes as military analysts in Israeli newspapers pointed out, yesterday, Sunday, that there are several factors that would prevent the continuation of the war on Gaza in its current form and intensity, in addition to the “structural contradiction” between Israel’s two goals in this war - eliminating the Hamas movement and returning the prisoners in Gaza. Gaza, while world public opinion is pressuring the leaders of Western countries to in turn exert pressure on Israel and demand a ceasefire in light of the horrific number of civilian martyrs in the Gaza Strip.

As the Israeli occupation forces approach the Shifa Hospital in Gaza and besiege it more and more, claiming that Hamas leaders are under it, the military analyst in the Maariv newspaper, Tal Lev Ram, pointed out that besieging the hospital “constitutes an opportunity for Hamas through increased international pressure and criticism.” "The world directs it to Israel. It would also encourage violent incidents against Jews around the world, and cause Hezbollah to escalate its military operations against Israel."

He added, "It is clear that the passage of time does not play in Israel's favor. Hence the large gap between the feeling of the success of the forces in the field and the big questions about whether the military operation, no matter how good it is, will bring Israel closer to achieving the major goals of defeating Hamas and returning the kidnapped people."

The American administration leaked through American media that Israel’s time in the war in its current form is “limited,” and that it has a week or two at most to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza. The Israeli army appears to be isolated from the world, according to the Israeli media, which indicates that the army is talking about that the war will continue for many months.

The number of applications for licenses to possess weapons in Israel has reached 190,000 since October 7, according to Hebrew media.

The Hebrew economic newspaper "Calcalist" said on Monday: "Since the beginning of the war, more than 190,000 weapons license applications have been submitted to the Ministry of National Security, and in the first ten months of 2023, more than 210,000 applications have been submitted, and the year is not over yet."

It added: “So far, about 31,000 licenses have been issued. For comparison, in 2022, 42,000 applications were submitted, and about 13,000 licenses were granted.”

As for “in 2021, about 20,000 applications were submitted, and about 10,000 licenses were issued,” according to the same source.

The newspaper explained that "weapon production has increased in Israeli companies."

It added, quoting the owners of arms production companies: “All production machines have been working non-stop and around the clock for more than a month, even on weekends, and every day they provide hundreds of assault rifles to the Israeli army units, which are fighting on the front, and to the reserve groups that are arming themselves.” , and personal pistols, to the civilian market that woke up terrified by the massacre in the south (the Gaza envelope), and it jumped by hundreds of percent last month.”

It pointed out that "the arming process is dangerous, but arms manufacturers and dealers come up with ready-made answers such as: It is not the weapon that kills, but the person who pulls the trigger," and "licenses are issued selectively, professionally, and in a responsible process."

It stated that "the price of a personal pistol ranges between 3,000-4,000 Israeli shekels (775-1,033 US dollars), while companies indicate that they have not raised prices due to high demand."

It continued, "Weapons made in Israel are only a small part of the arms market."

It quoted Amos Golan, head of the firearms department at the Federation of Israeli Chambers of Commerce, as saying: “98 percent of weapons in Israel are imported.”

It pointed out that the head of the settlement council in the northern West Bank, Yossi Dagan, submitted a request a few weeks ago to purchase 200 assault rifles from an Israeli factory.

In recent weeks, Israeli Minister of National Security Itamar Ben Gvir announced the distribution of thousands of assault rifles in the West Bank, northern and southern Israel.

The economic newspaper said: “The war in Gaza has taken over the entire Israeli arms industry, with production floors busy working against the backdrop of the global arms fever, which was created by the war between Russia and Ukraine.”

It added: “On the first day of the war, they rushed to side with the Defense Ministry’s expectations, diverted all production to the needs of the Israeli army and stopped exports, despite everything that meant.”

It pointed out that "arms companies do not care about the opportunities they are missing these days abroad, as they know that in the midst of battles it will be very easy to sell to the world the weapons that were used by the special units of the Israeli army in the war in Gaza."

It pointed out that the companies consider that “sales to the Israeli army and security forces are a sign of the quality of any product in the weapons sector,” in reference to the ease of marketing them globally if the Israeli army uses them.

It added: "While many companies have been closed, the Israeli arms industry has not previously recorded such demands since the establishment of the state," referring to the large demand for weapons.

Last June, the Israeli Ministry of Defense said that the country’s total arms exports to many markets around the world reached $12.5 billion in 2022.

The ministry stated in a statement that Israeli arms exports have more than doubled since 2014, and jumped by 50 percent in the past three years alone, according to what was reported by the Hebrew newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth.

For 38 days, the Israeli army has been waging a devastating war on the Gaza Strip, which led to the killing of more than 11,180 Palestinians, including 4,609 children, 3,100 women, and 678 elderly people, and injured more than 27,490 with various injuries, according to official sources, as of Monday morning.

The Secretary-General of the League of Arab States, Ahmed Aboul Gheit, condemned in the strongest terms the occupation forces’ targeting of hospitals in the Gaza Strip, especially Al-Shifa Hospital, which is the main health center in the Strip.

Aboul Gheit stressed that this act is devoid of human conscience and is criminalized by all laws, in addition to being a flagrant violation of international humanitarian law.

Gamal Rushdi, spokesman for the Secretary-General, quoted Aboul Gheit as saying that these brutal attacks on hospitals housing the sick and wounded must stop immediately, holding international parties responsible for still giving Israel the green light to continue an extrajudicial war, using methods that are unacceptable to any human conscience. .

On the other hand, Rushdi stated that the Secretary-General of the League received, today, Monday, at the headquarters of the General Secretariat, General Patrick Gochat, head of the United Nations Truce Supervision Organization mission, which was established by a UN resolution in 1948 to monitor the armistice agreements between Israel and four Arab countries.

He said that Aboul Gheit listened to an assessment presented by the UN official of the security and field situation on the various fronts, where the Secretary-General of the Arab League stressed that the continuation of the war in Gaza and the failure to adopt an immediate ceasefire is what raises the possibility of security deterioration and the conflict moving to other fronts, and that those seeking to Contain the conflict and work immediately to achieve a sustainable ceasefire.

Gaza faces annihilation

For the 38th day in a row, the occupation continues its aggression against the Gaza Strip since it began on October 7, after the Palestinian resistance carried out Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, in the Gaza envelope area.

The raids launched by occupation fighters continue, targeting the homes of defenseless civilians, in addition to targeting hospitals, mosques and churches, which has led to thousands of martyrs and wounded, while those who have survived the bombing so far suffer from catastrophic humanitarian conditions.

According to the latest statistics issued by the Ministry of Health in Gaza, the death toll from the Israeli aggression since October 7 has risen to more than 11,180 martyrs, including more than 8,000 children and women, in addition to more than 28,000 wounded.

A Turkish aid ship carrying field hospitals for the Gaza Strip arrived at the port of Al-Arish, near the Rafah border crossing with the Gaza Strip, according to what an official in the port located in northern Sinai, Egypt, told Agence France-Presse.

The ship is the first to carry field hospitals for Gaza to arrive in Egypt at a time when all Gaza hospitals are out of service, according to the Ministry of Health in the Strip. The Turkish Ministry of Health confirmed that “the ship that arrived in Al-Arish carries equipment, supplies, and ambulances to establish 8 field hospitals.”

An official in the Turkish Ministry of Health confirmed that Ankara requested the approval of the Egyptian authorities to establish these hospitals in Al-Arish, which is 40 kilometers from the Rafah crossing, explaining that the Egyptian authorities had already given the green light to establish the hospitals in the places they specified.

Since the start of the Israeli war on Gaza more than 6 weeks ago, the Rafah crossing, the only outlet for the besieged Gaza Strip to the outside world, has been opened intermittently and limited aid has entered from it, while a limited number of those who were injured in the Israeli bombing of the Strip and hundreds of foreigners and dual nationals have left.

Doctors Without Borders warned that hospitals in Gaza City could become “morgues,” as thousands of residents of northern Gaza are crowded into hospitals surrounded by tanks and bombed by Israeli aircraft. While the wounded remain in the streets, those displaced to the south complain of tragic conditions, where there is no shelter no medicine or food.

The latest reports indicate that there are wounded people in the streets without medical care, as ambulances are unable to transport them, with aircraft bombing every movement in the vicinity of hospitals.

Since the seventh of last October, the occupation army has launched a continuous aggression against the Gaza Strip, which has led to the martyrdom of more than 11,000 Palestinians, most of whom are women and children, in addition to the destruction of the health sector and various vital facilities.

Palestinian Prime Minister Muhammad Shtayyeh announced today, Monday, his rejection of Israeli calls to establish temporary camps for the displaced in the southern Gaza Strip, during his speech at the weekly government meeting in the city of Ramallah in the West Bank.

Shtayyeh said: "We refuse to establish temporary camps for the displaced, as the Israeli army requests from international organizations. We want our people to return to their homes from which they were displaced. In the history of Palestine, there is no such thing as temporary. Experience has taught us that temporary is permanent."

He added: "We are struggling in all international circles to stop the aggression, and to secure the delivery of food and medicine to all areas of the Gaza Strip, especially the north, and we are doing everything possible to save our people there."

In this context, Shtayyeh called on the United Nations and the European Union to "drop aid into the Gaza Strip, especially the north, by parachute, as happened in various experiences in the world, and to open relief corridors to Gaza and not limit it to the Rafah crossing only."

He continued: “I say to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who opposes the return of authority to Gaza and wants to maintain the occupation for a long time, that his policy will bring calamity on them,” noting that the Gaza Strip “is part of the land of Palestine that was occupied in 1967, and we do not need anyone’s permission to help our people.” there".

Al-Shifa Hospital

Shtayyeh expressed his "regret that some countries are still calling for Israel's right to defend itself," explaining that "the aggressor has no right to self-defense."

He continued: "Whoever supplies Israel with weapons now is a partner in the aggression against the blood of children, women and innocent people from our people," noting that Israel has made Al-Shifa Hospital "an address for its control over Gaza, as if it were a military barracks."

He added: "The (Al-Shifa) hospital contains wounded and sick people, and whatever the justification, bombing hospitals, cutting off their electricity, and preventing fuel and oil from reaching them can only be considered a war crime according to international humanitarian law."

For 3 days, the Israeli occupation forces have besieged the vicinity of hospitals in the northern Gaza Strip, denying water, food and fuel to these health facilities. The occupation army is targeting Al-Shifa Hospital and its surroundings, and the rest of the hospitals in the Strip, with continuous bombing.

Earlier today, the director of the Shifa Medical Complex in Gaza City, Muhammad Abu Salamiya, announced that the number of martyrs due to the interruption of services and electricity in the hospital had risen to 20 people, including 6 premature babies and 9 wounded and other patients in the intensive care department.

As the war continues, deterioration at the level of governance, security, and public order will likely be deepened by the absence of a political horizon, diplomatic process, or future prospects.

Initial reactions to Hamas’s October 7 bloody attack on Israelis and Israel’s declaration of war focused on the short term: how strongly would Israel react and what would its war aims be? It was precisely such short-term thinking—on the part of Israeli, Palestinian, American, and other leaders who sought to postpone rather than address issues—that contributed to the current crisis. Israel has finally spelled out war aims, but they are very ambitious: to oust Hamas from governance and to destroy its military capability. That new, yet limited, clarity has pushed public discussions and private, official meetings to begin arrangements for the day after.

But there is no sign of consensus, and even the most detailed authoritative statements lack clarity. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s October 31 comments were the most specific offered yet, but they only suggested that the United States and other countries are looking at “a variety of possible permutations.” He mused that an “effective and revitalized Palestinian Authority” (PA) should ultimately govern Gaza but offered no clues on how to make the PA effective or overcome Israeli opposition. He only suggested vaguely that in the meantime, “there are other temporary arrangements that may involve a number of other countries in the region. It may involve international agencies that would help provide for both security and governance.” The nominees floated for this interim role include Arab states and the United Nations, supported by other governmental and nongovernmental international organizations.

THE RIGHT QUESTIONS

The lack of clarity has a cause: The question “How should Gaza be governed when the war is over?” will likely reveal itself to have no good answers and not even to be the right starting point. Instead, better questions ask: What does it mean to oust a party like Hamas from governance when it dominates all levels of Gaza’s government? What does it mean for Israel to attempt to end the military capability of Hamas, a social movement with a military wing that also oversees public security, administration, and other governmental functions—especially when it operates both above and below ground? What does victory mean? And whatever its goals, what will Israel actually achieve? How will anyone know that the war is over? These better questions show why it is a mistake for scenarios to assume a “day after” as if this were a conventional war that will clearly and cleanly give way to agreed or imposed postwar arrangements.

Many scenarios are based on what actors should do rather than what they are likely to do, which is also misleading. Such scenarios also risk seriously underestimating the difficulties of any diplomacy. Instead, policymakers should examine how unfolding events will affect what the actors are likely to do and the ways in which the violence may deepen divisions. Gazan governance may be so seriously undermined that political disintegration accompanied by social and economic deterioration are far more likely than any ideal (or even manageable) arrangements.

HAZY OUTCOMES

It seems safe to assume as well—and indeed it is rapidly becoming the case—that the Israeli military operation will kill many civilians and destroy part of Gaza, including housing, infrastructure, and critical aspects of civilian life. Israel will most likely impose significant military buffer zones within Gaza that will be inaccessible to Palestinians for a while, if not indefinitely. As fighting dies down, the ongoing Israeli military stance in Gaza will likely tighten the border and increase security forces’ capacity to conduct incursions into populated areas.

Israel will not likely reintroduce settlers into Gaza, but future military moves might include setting up military installations within Gaza. Israel will not be able to dominate Gaza to the same degree as the West Bank, but that level of control is not necessary anyway, as Israel’s principal aim in Gaza is to prevent the capacity of Gazan militias to attack Israel rather than to protect its settler enterprise.

Besides displacing Gazans within Gaza, the effect of the Israeli military operation might force a significant number of people to leave Gaza into the Sinai Peninsula, despite Egypt’s blockade. That possibility seems to be receding, both as a result of external pressure and very sharp Egyptian resistance. But population shifts within the Gaza Strip are already occurring, as Gazans flee fighting and are warned by Israel that their lives are at risk if they do not. And further displacement and depopulation to create the buffer zones will further squeeze many Gazans into tenuous enclaves within enclaves. Parts of the north of Gaza might be in practice annexed—at least in security terms—and turned into a closed Israeli military zone.

EVOLVING ACTORS

Rather than a “day after,” what seems more likely is a shift from intensive to low-level combat that has no clear resolution. There will be efforts to devise arrangements, to be sure. But the most notable diplomatic fallout from the fighting might be that diplomacy becomes even more difficult. The coordination necessary to make any arrangements for governance functions may be extremely difficult to achieve.

And changes within each actor are likely to complicate matters further.

Hamas is not likely to be destroyed, though it will undoubtedly suffer tremendous losses. It may be that the movement’s political wing—since it operates aboveground—is a softer target than the military wing, which is both hardened and already partially underground. There is a significant possibility that the military wing will actually increase its hold on the organization—and that it will identify any postwar governance that targets the movement as collaboration with Israeli efforts to eliminate it.

The United States has played a dramatic role in the war’s initial stages, hardwiring the American and Israeli decision-making processes together in an unprecedented way. European states have followed their general pattern of tailing the United States while advocating a bit more publicly for civilian lives and longer-term diplomacy. The result may be that the United States gains real leverage with Israel—while many people in the region increasingly distrust the United States and place very strong pressures on their governments not to cooperate with U.S. diplomacy.

Multilateral institutions have been far more adept at service provision and humanitarian aid than governance. Some (such as the UN’s Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East, or UNRWA) do have extensive operations in some sectors (most notably education), but they are unlikely to wish to extend that programming especially if there is resistance among some of the population. The casualties already suffered by such agencies and the extraordinary vitriol directed by Israeli officials against the UN secretary general augur poorly for constructive arrangements if the fighting does ease.

Arab states never wished to be made responsible for Gaza; that preference is likely to be strengthened. Nor are they likely to band together to manage a problem they feel was caused by the recklessness of others. The few experiences of multilateral involvement by Arab states in “peacekeeping” or security arrangements do not provide positive models. In short, Arab states are unlikely to accept a role. And in the unlikely event they were persuaded to step in, such involvement would likely be ineffective in providing administration, much less security.

Israel’s future posture is unknown even to most Israelis. Over the short term, there is unity behind a military effort, but the underlying fissures in Israeli society seem more deferred than resolved. The religious nationalist camp has lost its centrality with the expansion of Israel’s governing coalition, but it retains key ministries for now, and its citizens’ violent activities against Palestinians in the West Bank have stepped up. Its vision for annexing the land but denying rights to non-Jewish inhabitants has already advanced very far. 

The country’s military and security leaders are both leading much of the country’s response, but they are also taking blame for missing the signs that Hamas would strike out; the tensions between the leadership and rightist politicians seem to be just below the surface. Leading Israeli political and security figures are divided about whether the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah is annoying, hostile, or a potential partner, but the idea that Palestinians are a national community that should be treated as such is accepted only in pockets of the Israeli political spectrum. The political configuration in Israel is volatile, and the stance and composition of the country’s leadership a year from now are difficult to foresee.

SO HOW WILL GAZA BE GOVERNED?

These evolving actors will struggle to devise a new governance system for Gaza.

Gaza has been governed in various ways by Hamas since 2006, and it is therefore only a minority of Gazans who remember anything different. Hamas is not particularly popular—it has some enthusiastic support, to be sure, but only from a minority. But asking Gazans whom they support is partly beside the point: no Palestinian has had a serious voice in choosing their leaders since 2006. A bizarre coincidence of interests among a variety of international and domestic actors has formed to prevent meaningful elections. Resignation is the currency of popular politics.

In the meantime, the administration and governance of the Gaza Strip gradually evolved into a party-state that is now in the crosshairs of Israeli military efforts. So what will be the fate of that structure—and the people it has governed?

Gazans will live in the surviving buildings and makeshift structures for a while. Any rebuilding will exclude significant portions of Gaza. Commerce, manufacturing, agriculture, and other businesses will be effectively destroyed, rendering Gazans completely dependent on humanitarian aid. Once a “besieged enclave,” Gaza will be reduced to a “supercamp” of internally displaced persons.

Israel has a choice here: its initial pledge to kill every member of Hamas has faded, but it remains unclear how Israeli forces will treat Hamas’s bureaucrats, teachers, judges, inspectors, and police. Will Israel simply raid and target Hamas’s military wing? Will it attempt to arrest, assassinate, or ignore government officials? Will it be systematic or ad hoc? Will governance structures in Gaza be decapitated, decimated, or partially incapacitated?

Disintegration of the central government in Gaza is not without precedent. After its 2006 election victory in Palestinian Authority elections, and even after the 2007 split in that body that left Hamas in control of Gaza, Hamas exercised tightening control of the security and political framework in Gaza. But it initially did not have total control of the services traditionally managed by the governments, and some key areas still lie outside of its oversight. Much of Gaza’s civil service remained on the Ramallah payroll—though when the West Bank ordered many employees in many sectors in Gaza to stay home, the result was that the Hamas government hired many of its own personnel. Over time, much of the apparatus of governance began to function again, with parts (such as education) coordinating with the West Bank but with Hamas placing almost all structures under those who either were loyal or accepted Hamas as inevitable.

But Hamas’s control has never been total. The Gaza government could not provide for all its people’s needs, and international bodies stepped in. Indeed, these organizations provided virtually the only institutions in Gaza not under the control of what was becoming a party-state. For example, a desalination plant was managed by the UN Children’s Fund, a power plant managed by the Palestinian Energy and Natural Resources Authority, some schools managed by UNRWA, and salaries of hospital staff paid by Ramallah. This setup was necessary to avoid essential services being cut off when the international community boycotted Hamas and to facilitate vital cooperation with Israel in running these services.

REINVENTING THE WHEEL OR BREAKING IT?

Most of the ideas about “the day after” that assume Hamas will soon be gone seem inspired by the set of ad hoc governance systems developed to provide social services while Israel blockaded Gaza and most international actors boycotted its government. The proposals are based on expanding the ad hoc arrangements with less involvement (or none at all) by formerly Hamas-led structures. Those who insist that Hamas rule must end do not spell out what they mean, but even a less ambitious scenario would leave only lower-level structures intact.

The question is not whether Israel will “reoccupy” Gaza. The most onerous aspects of Israel’s occupation never ended: what ended with the Oslo Accords was Israel’s post-1967 strong role in overseeing administration and internal security outside of settlements; what changed in 2005 was the withdrawal of Israel’s settlements and the attendant military presence. While some on the Israeli right have spoken of restoring settlements and even expelling Palestinians, louder voices seem to suggest that Israel will seek to hand administration over to someone else.

So “day after” plans focus on oversight and control over the governmental machinery in Gaza—perhaps greatly expanding the pre-2023 setup for some service provision with more involvement of the UN agencies and internationally sponsored organizations and possibly some Palestinian Authority or Arab involvement. Blinken’s comments rolled all these possibilities into one.

There is no real precedent in Gazan history for such loose arrangements—since the Gaza Strip emerged as a distinct entity at the end of the 1948 war, Egypt, Israel, the Palestinian Authority, and the Hamas-led government all took turns in overseeing Gaza’s administration, service provision, and security.

So who would oversee the assortment of UN agencies, various international aid agencies, nongovernmental organizations, elements of the Palestinian Authority, and remains of the Gazan bureaucracy? The various candidates put forward each seem implausible.

• The PA is unlikely to restore its pre-2007 institutional and legal framework. First, Israel’s long-standing policy to disconnect Gaza from the West Bank and to treat Gaza as a nonentity in political and governing terms would have to be completely reversed, and that seems unlikely. Second, the PA lacks popular support to begin with; to be seen as the agent of Israeli invasion and U.S. complicity—which is how most Palestinians would see it—might be close to suicidal. 
• The PA is clear on this point; its prime minister has said that “To have the Palestinian Authority go to Gaza and run the affairs of Gaza without a political solution for the West Bank, as if this Palestinian Authority is going aboard an F-16 or an Israeli tank? I don’t accept it. Our president [Mahmoud Abbas] does not accept it. 
• None of us will accept it.” And the PA’s stubbornly passive behavior is consistent with this stance: PA officials have launched an initiative to engage in a humanitarian response in Gaza. They do not engage in strategic communication to promote a ceasefire. There is no political dialogue with Hamas nor other Palestinian factions. On top of that, the potential PA administration would be under Israel’s complete security control, similarly to the West Bank’s Area C. This complete control would likely bolster the image of the PA as an Israeli “contractor.” 
• A “revitalized” PA capable of undertaking administration and providing security in Gaza would seem to require both elections and a very muscular diplomatic process within an acceptable horizon. Neither is likely; those now calling for a “revitalized” PA are precisely the same actors who have resisted such steps for many years.
• The UN or any international coalition is unlikely to be effective at more than some service provision. Misleading comparisons to Kosovo or Iraq obscure the far more hostile context: UNRWA alone has already seen sixty-three of its workers killed; Israeli officials have heaped extraordinary vituperation on senior UN officials; and internal security has dissolved in Gaza. For the UN to establish a political or peacekeeping mission, a high degree of consensus would have to be possible in the UN Security Council, which is already deeply divided on many global issues.
• Regional management seems even less plausible. Why would countries in the region want to take responsibility for administering Gaza under military control of Israel? And why would Israel want regional actors to have military control of Gaza?

Thus, while some of these actors might be involved in some way in some activities—service provision most especially—none acting individually or jointly would have the interest, ability, or capability to impose itself on Gaza as an overarching authority. Many might be willing to supply water, aid workers, school supplies, and food. The United States might press Israel to allow a supply of electricity and fuel. Gazan access to international financial systems might be restored.

But for the foreseeable future, there will be no central government for Gaza. Not only will no force be able to supply security in terms of public security and basic law and order, but also, continuous Israeli raids or Hamas attacks on perceived collaborators may be ongoing.

In that context, law and order on the streets will likely be handled—if they are handled at all—by camp committees and self-appointed gangs. And this deterioration at the level of governance, security, and public order will likely be deepened by the absence of a political horizon, diplomatic process, or future prospects: Gazans would be offered a dispiriting present and a future of statelessness and denial of dignity, national rights, and individual rights.

This seems less like the day after a conflict than a long twilight of disintegration and despair.

Source: Carnegie Endowment

Cairo News Channel reported the death of the Cairo News photographer in Gaza.

The Journalist Ahmed Al-Tahri, head of the news channels sector at the United Media Services Company, announced the death of the “Cairo News” channel photographer assigned to cover the events in Gaza, specifically in front of the vicinity of Al-Shifa Hospital.

Ahmed Al-Tahri wrote on his personal Facebook account: “The day before yesterday we lost broadcasting in the vicinity of Al-Shifa Hospital in the Gaza Strip, and communication with our crew was cut off. I have now learned of the news of the photographer’s death and the injury of another colleague. There is no power nor strength except with Allah”

On the other hand, European Union Foreign Policy Commissioner Josep Borrell said on Monday, “We demand an immediate, temporary and multiple ceasefire and the opening of humanitarian corridors.”

Hebrew media said on Monday that European Union Foreign Minister Josep Borrell will visit Israel next Thursday.

According to the newspaper “Israel Today”, Tel Aviv is making efforts to renew the arrival of leaders from Europe in order to provide support to Israel in the war on Gaza.

Lebanese media reported on Monday that the outskirts of several towns were subjected to Israeli artillery shelling.

The National News Agency reported that “the outskirts of the towns of Tair Harfa, Shihin, and Umm al-Tut were subjected to enemy artillery shelling,” noting that a guided missile had been launched from inside Lebanese territory.

It pointed out that “the enemy fired, at night, a number of direct artillery shells on the vicinity of the town of Aita al-Shaab in the central sector,” explaining that “the night in the southern regions and along the border with occupied Palestine was tense due to the continuous flights of reconnaissance aircraft at low altitude, focusing their flight over The course of the Litani River, and continued until the early morning hours.

It said that “enemy flares did not miss the skies of the western and central sectors,” revealing that “most of the residents of the villages adjacent to the border have moved to safer areas, knowing that the services provided to the displaced in the centers of Tire do not meet the minimum aspects of livelihood and its necessities.”

The catastrophe of the Shifa Medical Complex in Gaza worsened today, Monday, as Israel continues to bomb its surroundings, besiege it from all sides, and prevent it from being supplied with fuel.

The authorities in Gaza reported that 100 bodies are currently decomposing in the compound’s courtyard, while dozens of premature babies and intensive care patients died as a result of the power outage resulting from the depletion of fuel.

The Director-General of the Ministry of Health in the Gaza Strip told Al Jazeera, "About 100 bodies are decomposing in the yard of Al-Shifa Hospital, and we cannot bury them."

He added that about 200 families are currently in the vicinity of Al-Shifa Hospital and cannot move from their homes.

The Ministry of Health in Gaza announced that the death toll since the day before yesterday, Saturday, had risen to 34 in Al-Shifa Hospital.

The Undersecretary of the Ministry of Health, Yousef Abu Al-Rish, confirmed, “The number of deaths has risen to 27 patients in intensive care, and 7 premature newborns due to the power outage.”

Al-Quds Hospital

For its part, the Palestine Red Crescent Society announced - today, Monday - the cessation of the convoy of vehicles designated to evacuate patients and medical staff from Al-Quds Hospital in the Central Governorate, as a result of the dangerous conditions in the vicinity of the hospital.

The association said that heavy gunfire in the vicinity of the hospital located in the Tal al-Hawa area in Gaza City is continuing, noting that the sounds of shelling and violent explosions continue to be heard in the area.

She explained that the convoy of vehicles that set off from the southern Gaza Strip towards the hospital, accompanied by the Red Cross to ensure the evacuation of patients and medical staff, stopped in the Central Governorate, until it was able to continue on its way due to the dangerous conditions in the vicinity of the hospital.

Earlier, the association said - in a separate publication - that Israeli vehicles and tanks are stationed in the vicinity of Al-Quds Hospital from all sides, and that sounds of continuous shelling are being heard, in light of the preparations to evacuate the hospital with its patients and wounded, and their accompanying medical personnel.

Yesterday, Sunday, the association announced that the hospital it runs in Gaza had been out of service, due to the exhaustion of fuel and a power outage.

Source: Al Jazeera + agencies

The Axios news website reported on Monday that a memorandum signed by 100 employees of the US State Department and the International Development Agency accused US President Joe Biden of spreading “misleading” information about the war between Israel and the Hamas movement  according to what was reported by the Arab World News Agency. The memorandum stated that Israel was committing “war crimes” in Gaza.

The memorandum included a recommendation that Washington call for the release of hostages by both Hamas and Israel, referring to the “thousands” of Palestinians detained in Israel, including those detained “without charges.”

International and internal pressures are pushing the Biden administration to search for a way out of the war.

Since the first day of the war, the Biden administration has shown exceptional support for Israel at all political, diplomatic and military levels, promoted Israel’s right to defend itself, supported the Netanyahu government in its goals to destroy Hamas and its military structure, provided Israel with advanced weapons and unprecedented military aid, and took military steps. 

Intensive efforts to prevent the escalation of the war included strikes on Iranian agents in Syria, the deployment of two aircraft carriers and a nuclear-powered submarine in the region, and it sided with Israel in rejecting UN, international and Arab calls for a ceasefire until all the hostages were released, and in accusing Hamas of seizing civilians in Gaza as Human shields. It obstructed efforts in the Security Council to issue a resolution for a ceasefire in Gaza and the protection of civilians.

This war has made all countries of the world stand on their nerves in a state of anticipation and anxiety about how this unequal war is proceeding, and the Israeli brutality that carries suspicion of committing war crimes, genocide, ethnic cleansing, and forced displacement, the way it can be ended, and the plans for after the end of the war.

With the dangers of expanding war in the region, and the spread of anger across the capitals of the world in demonstrations in unprecedented numbers, the question arises: What can US President Joe Biden, who is most capable of restraining Israel and using his political weight to impose a ceasefire and establish peace, do? In the post-Hamas period and the resumption of a political process that achieves some rights for the Palestinians, the American administration is implementing its promises to proceed on the path of the two-state solution. But the United States has calculations of gains and losses in this war, and the development of events requires it to carefully review these calculations.

  Gains accounts

The United States agreed in its goals with Israel's goal of dismantling Hamas, destroying its military structure, and reducing its relations with Iran and other resistance factions. Military leaders realize that this goal takes time and has a high cost. The Biden administration gives the green light to achieve these goals, but it stressed in its call to Israel to avoid civilian casualties “as much as possible.” Although this call appears to be a call to protect the lives of the people of Gaza, it is also a call to the Israeli army to be patient and plan carefully without recklessness that leads to losses among the Israeli military  inside Gaza.

Despite the multiple pressures that Biden faces internally and externally, he realizes that a ceasefire does not only mean the defeat of Israel, but it also means the defeat of the United States, which faces many of the same Iranian and terrorist threats.

Biden enjoys great popularity in Israel as Israel's most important ally and supporter, especially after his visit to Tel Aviv and his participation - in an unusual precedent - in the meetings of the war government led by Benjamin Netanyahu. Analysts say that Biden can use this political influence to pressure the implementation of important initiatives, especially since the lives of tens of thousands in both Israel and Gaza are at stake.

It is certain that the Biden administration will allow Israel to achieve some achievements and deal a fatal blow to Hamas in a way that will enable Israel to promote victory in its war, and then demand that it extend the humanitarian truces until it reaches the request for a ceasefire.

Analysts say that Netanyahu wants to continue the war and promotes that the ceasefire means the victory of “Hamas,” and restricts Israel’s hand in confronting other threats on the northern front with Hezbollah, but it also threatens his political future and the investigations that await him related to the failure to anticipate an attack. Hamas” on October 7th and in relation to the corruption accusations it faces. This is also what could factor into the calculations of American gains, as the continued support for the Israeli Prime Minister could end with the end of the battle and leave Netanyahu to face his fate with cases, investigations and accusations.

American calculations expect that Israel will have a new leader after the war, and it hopes that this new person will realize that the only way to preserve the safety of the Israelis is to reach a peace agreement with the Palestinians.

Some officials in the American administration believe that the chances of achieving an Israeli-Palestinian peace after the war are favorable, and another group wants to allow time and prepare the stage for the emergence of other leaders, as both sides (Israeli and Palestinian) lack credible leaders, and therefore the Biden administration is calculating the creation of conditions that would encourage the emergence of leaders capable of making strong, pro-peace decisions after the end of the war.

American pragmatism

Washington blessed the Israeli military operations to target Hamas leaders and destroy the movement’s military infrastructure, but it has recently tended to carry out them more precisely without destroying Gaza and turning its entire neighborhoods into rubble. It advised Israel to use smaller bombs following the use of bombs weighing more than a thousand pounds in Targeting Jabalia camp, then pressured to allow a humanitarian truce, which decreased from the requirement to last three days, then 12 hours, and ended with a four-hour tactical truce.

One of the priorities of the Biden administration is the success of the hostage release negotiations, a file that took up a large part of the intelligence and diplomatic operations and the shuttle tours of senior American officials, which began with the tours of Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, then the Director of US Intelligence, William Burns, and then the expected visit of the White House Coordinator for Middle East Affairs, Brett McGurk. He arrives in Israel on Tuesday as part of a visit to several countries to reach an agreement that guarantees the release of many hostages held by Hamas in Gaza.

McGurk will first visit Brussels to hold talks with NATO and European Union officials, then visit Israel and meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Galant, and security and intelligence officials, and then travel to Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Bahrain. The White House refused to comment on reports of an agreement that could lead to the release of 80 hostages, most of them women and children, held by Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

If Washington succeeds in securing this deal, it will bring the Biden administration a political victory that can be exploited forcefully in the face of angry demonstrations, in the face of international and national criticism, and in the face of the progressive movement within the Democratic Party. It will enhance his chances in his electoral campaign and promote that he protects every American at home and abroad.

In order to calm the international community and Palestinian anger and encourage some Palestinian leaders to work with the American administration, American officials are putting forward some ideas to absorb the anger, including issuing public statements about the need to curb settler violence and stop building settlements, and sending signals such as preparing steps to reopen the American consulate in Jerusalem “in the near future” . It should take the step of abstaining from voting in the United Nations Security Council on resolutions calling for a ceasefire instead of using the right of veto.

Risk calculations

The United States' patience with Israel in the Gaza war cannot last forever, in light of the huge numbers of civilian casualties as the war enters its second month and internal preparations for a fierce electoral battle with 12 months remaining. Biden does not want to go into battle while carrying on his neck the weight of the American failure in Afghanistan, the continuation of the Russian-Ukrainian war without a glimmer of hope for ending it, and then the Israeli war against Hamas, which brings dangers from all directions.

Moral responsibility: With the loss of more than 11,000 civilians due to the ongoing Israeli bombing of civilians, the siege of hospitals, and the cutting off of aid delivery under Israel’s intransigence, all of them place the burden on the United States, which has always called for moral values and democratic principles. The matter is not limited to civilians in Gaza, most of whom are children and women, but statistics indicate that 100 United Nations employees were killed, in addition to the killing of 30 journalists. Accusations are increasing against the United States of collusion and supplying Israel with bombs and artillery shells with which Israel kills innocent people.

  The results of the vote in the United Nations General Assembly, with 120 countries voting in favor of a ceasefire, indicated the isolation of the United States on the international stage, with the French position shifting significantly to step out of the United States’ mantle, and strongly demanding a ceasefire, and the warnings of the Secretary-General of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres, of the brutality of the Israeli bombing. Who turned Gaza into a cemetery for children. Then the strong statement of the joint Arab-Islamic summit, which raised the White House’s fears of the countries of the region moving away from the United States, the increasing Saudi-Iranian rapprochement, and the Arab and Islamic rapprochement with both Russia and China, in addition to complicating and perhaps freezing the peace paths that the Biden administration dreamed of achieving a historic political achievement, in concluding further normalization agreements between Arab countries and Israel. The risks may threaten agreements already concluded.

Netanyahu seeks to exploit the war against Hamas to prolong the period during which he can avoid facing difficult questions about the failure to prevent the Hamas attack on October 7. He insists that the war against Hamas may take weeks and months, and he is trying to promote himself within the American society, through interviews with a number of American news networks, pushed the Jewish lobby organizations to put pressure on the Biden administration and raise fears of increasing anti-Semitism, and behind the scenes there are fears that Netanyahu - if he feels his end is approaching - will exploit skirmishes on the northern front between “Hezbollah” and the Israeli forces in Exploiting a mistake or miscalculation would spark a war with Hezbollah and Iran behind it.

All calculations of gains, risks, and pragmatic, political, and electoral goals will govern how history will write these events, and what the legacy of US President Joe Biden and the image of the United States will be from a moral standpoint.

Asharq Alawsat

Palestinian photographers and journalists, through field tours in camps and cities in the northern Gaza Strip, documented visual scenes of the normal functioning of life and the presence of large numbers of citizens, to respond to the Israeli occupation’s claims that all residents of the north have been displaced and that its cities are empty.

Photographers posted scenes on their Instagram accounts showing aspects of people’s lives in Jabalia camp, Tal al-Zaatar, al-Fallujah, and Beit Lahia, and the footage shows the presence of thousands of families in the place.

The Ministry of Interior in Gaza indicated that about 900,000 Palestinians remain in Gaza City and the northern sector, which consists of 5 governorates.

The scene published by Palestinian photographer Fadi Al-Wahidi, via his Instagram account, showed life going on normally in the Jabalia camp in the northern Gaza Strip, with people wandering through the markets and carrying out daily activities on a routine basis, despite the suffering and difficult circumstances.

Al-Wahidi said that he filmed this scene during a field tour in the camp, to discredit the occupation army’s claims that the entire North Governorate had been evacuated.

Palestinian journalist Marah Atallah confirmed in visual scenes the presence of large numbers of citizens in the northern Gaza areas and presented an aspect of life there.

She commented, saying, “Do not serve Israel’s narrative, and imagine the north as empty of its people,” noting that the northern Gaza Strip is full of people, as there are 100 people in some of the homes next to it.

She added that Beit Lahia, Jabalia Camp, Tal Al-Zaatar, Al-Falujah, and all schools are full of evacuees, noting that this is the north that the media portrays as empty.

The population of Gaza City and its surrounding areas exceeds 1.1 million out of 2.2 million Palestinians living in the Strip, all of whom face extremely difficult living conditions due to the ongoing Israeli siege since 2006.

The occupation army has called more than once on the residents of Gaza City and the northern Gaza Strip to evacuate their homes despite international criticism, while its bombing continues for the 38th day in a row, resulting in the death of more than 11,000 Palestinians, including more than 8,000 children and women, and the injury of more than 28. Two thousand others.

Source: Al Jazeera

Amid the intense Israeli raids on the Gaza Strip that continued for the fifth week in a row, without the ground incursion contributing to the liberation of Israeli prisoners held by the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), voices rose in Israel calling for a ceasefire and the conclusion of a comprehensive prisoner exchange deal, warning against the return of Occupation and settlement in the besieged sector.

Opposition to the war on Gaza has escalated inside Israel, at a time when convictions have strengthened among large sectors that the Gaza battle cannot be resolved with military options, with the escalation of protests by families of Israeli prisoners held by Hamas in the Gaza Strip against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and the repercussions of the delay in concluding an exchange deal that would lead to the liberation of all of them.

This movement comes with the decline in international support for Israel, and the consensus that Israeli diplomacy has failed to mobilize international support for the war, and that it has lost the battle of awareness against the Palestinians.

"The Suburb Doctrine"

The "Breaking the Silence" organization, or "Shofarim Shtika", joined the Israeli movement, which is an Israeli organization against the occupation, and specializes in publishing Israeli army soldiers' violations against Palestinians in the territories occupied in 1967.

The organization’s director, Nadav Vaiman, chose to circulate a message to Israeli society, in which he reviewed its participation in the fighting in Gaza in 2008. In his message, he called for a ceasefire and the liberation of Israeli prisoners, saying that “there is no military resolution to the battle of Gaza, and instead of Israel deliberately transferring the conflict, there must be A political path that guarantees an end to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.”

Fayman says that while it will take some time before we get a complete picture of what is happening on the ground in Gaza, the statements of senior Israeli officials and the extent of the destruction in the Strip are already raising doubts that the army is acting on the same principle it has used in previous operations, the so-called “suburb” doctrine. .

He pointed out that "the suburb is a doctrine formulated around the Second Lebanon War, and its main point revolves around the disproportionate attack on civilian buildings and infrastructure." He explains, "If this is the prevailing principle in the war on Gaza, then the massive bombings that occurred in recent weeks were also used deliberately to damage the property and infrastructure of innocent civilians."

He referred to what he called the “combat rounds doctrine,” saying that it “does not aim for decisiveness but rather to deter, that is, postponing the next round of combat that will inevitably come, and it appears that the Israeli government today is choosing raids and bombardments with greater intensity than it chose to do in previous rounds.” He added, “Even the army spokesman made it clear that the focus is on damage and not on accuracy in hitting targets.”

Fayman noted that the right-wing government is exploiting the conditions of war, as voices are being raised for the occupation of Gaza and the re-settlement of Gush Katif, which was evacuated in 2005. “These voices reflect the systematic policies of right-wing governments towards the Palestinian issue, which have brought Israel to this reality. The war on Gaza has brought the Palestinian issue back to the forefront, and now enjoys the support of world public opinion, which Israel lost.”

Diplomatic failure

In a reading of the course of the war on Gaza, and the rising voices opposing it, even from the largest countries and leaders supporting Israel, Avi Issacharoff, an analyst for Arab and Palestinian affairs at Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, says that what is happening “are signs of relative achievements of the military level in the field, in exchange for a miserable failure of Israeli diplomacy and propaganda.” "Globally."

Issakharov says, “Despite additional deaths among the Israeli army forces during the ground operation in the Gaza Strip, it must be noted that what began as the greatest military failure Israel has ever known, turned into a relatively successful military step, but at the same time, no we can ignore the failure of Israeli propaganda and the victory of Palestinian propaganda in the international arena.”

He added, "What is transforming before our eyes is considered one of the greatest political nightmares we have ever known. Most of the world sees us Israelis as terrorists, while Yahya Sinwar and the leaders of Hamas become freedom fighters, and they enjoy respect all over the world, including American and British public opinion" and, of course, the Arab countries.

The American position

From a military point of view, security and military issues expert Yossi Melman believes that “the good intention of the United States to support Israel in the war on Gaza will end soon.” Accordingly, he said in an assessment of the position of the Israeli newspaper “Haaretz” that “Israel must use this intention and exploit it now to free the detainees before it is too late.” "It's time."

Melman adds, "If Israel wants to continue operating with full force against Hamas, it must also understand that it is not subject to a blank check from the administration of President Joe Biden, who is entering an election year and a period of discouraging opinion polls against Donald Trump."

The security expert believes that the War Council should be more sensitive to American sensitivities, especially with regard to the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza, and that the government should take advantage of the American position in support of the exchange deal negotiations and rapid action that leads to the release of prisoners.

Melman explained that even without requests or pressure from the United States, Israel must have a supreme interest in releasing the prisoners as quickly as possible, and exploit every crack and opportunity to achieve this, “even if Hamas is demanding not only a humanitarian truce, but also the release of Palestinian security prisoners in Israeli prisons.

Source: Al Jazeera

Five weeks after Hamas' attack on Israel, new evidence has emerged revealing the contours of the movement's broader plan, a plan that analysts say was not only aimed at killing and kidnapping Israelis, according to a report by the Washington Post.

New evidence

The evidence, reported by more than a dozen current and former intelligence and security officials from four Western and Middle Eastern countries, reveals Hamas' motives for launching a strike of "historic proportions."

The findings shed new light on the tactics and methods used by Hamas to thwart initial efforts by the Israeli army to stop the attack.

After breaching the Israeli border in about 30 places, Hamas militants carried out a “mass massacre of soldiers and civilians in at least 22 Israeli villages, towns and military sites,” according to the newspaper.

Unnamed officials told The Washington Post that some of the militants were carrying enough food, ammunition and equipment for several days, and were carrying instructions to continue the incursion into Israel if the first wave of attacks succeeded, which was likely to hit larger Israeli cities.

One unit carried Hamas “reconnaissance information and maps indicating an intention to continue the attack up to the West Bank border,” according to two senior Middle East intelligence officials and a former American official with detailed knowledge of the evidence.

The newspaper confirms that Hamas has increased its communication with West Bank activists in recent months, although the movement says that it did not notify its allies in the West Bank of its plans on October 7 in advance.

The former American official who was briefed on the matter said: If that had happened, it would have been a major victory, a symbolic strike not only against Israel, but also against the Palestinian Authority.

Analysts told the Washington Post that Hamas meticulously planned and prepared for a massacre of Israeli civilians on a scale that was likely to prompt the Israeli government to send troops into Gaza, as Hamas leaders publicly expressed their willingness to accept “heavy losses,” which would likely include Many civilians died in the Strip.

Hamas was willing to accept these sacrifices as the price for starting a new wave of violent Palestinian resistance in the region and thwarting efforts to normalize relations between Israel and Arab countries, according to current and former intelligence officials and counterterrorism experts.

“They have been very clear about what will happen to Gaza next,” said a senior Israeli military official familiar with sensitive intelligence, including interrogations with Hamas fighters and intercepted communications.

Secret planning and deception at a high level

Intelligence officials the Washington Post spoke with say that planning for an attack on Israel had been underway for more than a year before the events of October 7.

Hamas officials did their best to hide these preparations, even as senior leaders dropped occasional hints about their intentions.

Throughout the Gaza Strip, Hamas conducted military maneuvers above and below ground, and trained on the use of various weapons.

Western and Middle Eastern intelligence officials said that during Hamas training, fighters carefully scanned population centers and military bases to create a matrix of potential targets.

Over the past few days, the Israeli army has focused on targeting the leaders of the “Hamas elite unit,” which experts who spoke to Al-Hurra website describe as a “commando squad.” What is that unit, what are its combat capabilities, and how many members does it have?

To obtain detailed intelligence, Hamas deployed inexpensive reconnaissance drones for use in mapping Israeli cities and military installations within a few miles of the separation wall system that Israel built to isolate Gaza at a cost of $1 billion.

Intelligence officials said Hamas obtained additional information from “day laborers” in Gaza who were allowed into Israel to work, and the movement monitored Israeli sites, studying real estate photos and social media posts depicting life inside the kibbutzim.

Exact plans for how and where to attack were limited to a small circle of elite Hamas military planners, and the most important details appear to have been withheld even from the movement's political leadership.

“They were killed while waiting for the bus, dancing at a festival, doing morning chores, and hiding as best they could,” the evidence reveals details of Hamas’ surprise attack on Israel, which killed 1,200 Israelis, most of them civilians.

Israel believes that the main architect of the plan is Yahya Sinwar, the military commander of Hamas, as he and other leaders of the movement have begun issuing “hidden signals” in recent years indicating a “new practical direction.”

It was a message the Israelis wanted to hear: “Hamas does not want more wars,” said Michael Milstein, the former head of Palestinian affairs at Israeli military intelligence Aman.

To support this perception, clashes between Hamas and Israel stopped after 2021, and the movement notably refrained from intervening on several occasions when its ally in Gaza, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, fired rockets or clashed militarily with Israel.

Hamas left "Jihad"  faces her fate alone

A 3-day war in the Gaza Strip... Hamas’ calculations put it in a “spectator position”

During 3 days of battles between Israel and “Islamic Jihad” in the Gaza Strip, the Hamas movement that controls the Strip did not intervene to support “Jihad,” amid indications that the two movements were competing to “rule Gaza,” in light of wide “political and ideological” differences between the two parties. Which raises questions about the repercussions of this dispute.

For many in Israel, it was further evidence that “Hamas has changed and no longer seeks a bloody conflict.”

Some reports indicate that “Hamas officials passed intelligence information about Islamic Jihad in Palestine to the Israelis to reinforce the impression that they were cooperating,” the Washington Post confirms.

This is not to say that Hamas leaders did not occasionally call for the annihilation of Israel, and in a 2022 speech, Sinwar warned Israelis that Hamas would “march through your walls to uproot your regime.”

Unawares

Former Deputy Chairman of the Israeli National Security Council, Eran Etzion, said, “They were deceiving Israel at the strategic level, using portable radios, underground wire networks in tunnels and other communications that we could not listen to, while they were using the codes of so-called open networks, which "They knew we were listening."

In a related context, former Israeli intelligence official Amos Yadlin said that Israel “ultimately allowed the building of a Palestinian army by Hamas and kept telling itself that Hamas could be deterred,” adding, “Israel has been deceived.”

“They planned a second phase, including an attack on major Israeli cities and military bases,” said a senior Israeli official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss classified intelligence.

The war broke out between Israel and Hamas after a surprise attack launched by the movement on military sites and residential areas adjacent to the Gaza Strip on October 7, which led to the killing of 1,200 people, most of them civilians, and 239 people were kidnapped, according to the Israeli authorities.

Since then, Israel has responded with intense air, sea and ground bombardment on the besieged Gaza Strip, followed by a ground operation that is still ongoing. The death toll in Gaza reached 11,180, including 4,609 children and 3,100 women, in addition to 28,200 people being injured, according to what the Ministry of Defense announced. Hamas Health Ministry, Sunday.

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on Monday chose former Prime Minister David Cameron as foreign minister, in a surprise move as Sunak reshuffled his cabinet.

As part of the adjustments he is making to his team before the general elections expected next year, he appointed Foreign Minister James Cleverly as Minister of the Interior, replacing the controversial dismissed Minister of the Interior, Suella Braverman.

Sunak has come under increasing pressure to sack Braverman after her critics accused her of inflaming tensions during weeks of pro-Palestinian demonstrations and counter-protests in the UK.

Sunak appointed Braverman to this ministerial position after assuming prime minister a year ago.

"Becoming Secretary of the Interior has been the greatest honor of my life," Braverman said after her dismissal. "I will make additional statements at the appropriate time."

Braverman's dismissal came as the ruling Conservative Party announced that it was making a cabinet reshuffle that would include key portfolios for the first time since the formation of the current government on October 25, 2022.

“Today Rishi Sunak is strengthening his government team to make long-term decisions for a more prosperous future,” a message to the party said via Ex.

The Palestine Red Crescent Society said that the Israeli occupation forces continue shooting and violent bombing in the vicinity of Al-Quds Hospital in the Tal Al-Hawa area in Gaza City.

The association explained in a press statement on Monday that the convoy of vehicles that set off from the southern Gaza Strip towards the hospital, accompanied by the Red Cross to secure the evacuation of patients and medical staff, stopped in the Central Governorate until it was able to continue its journey due to the seriousness of the conditions in the vicinity of the hospital.

Yesterday, Sunday, the Red Crescent Society announced that Al-Quds Hospital in Gaza City had been out of service and had stopped working completely, due to the depletion of fuel and a power outage.

23 out of 35 hospitals have completely stopped operating, and the occupation forces are still besieging many hospitals, preventing entry or exit to them for medical staff, paramedics, and patients.

In an infinite toll, the ongoing Israeli aggression against the Gaza Strip since the 7th of last October has resulted in more than 11,078 martyrs, including 4,506 children and 3,027 women, in addition to the injury of 27,490 citizens, the majority of whom are women and children.

Two major wars were fought and are being fought by the Palestinians: one lasted 88 days, and resulted in heavy losses between both sides, but it led to the withdrawal of the Palestinian revolutionary forces from the south and Beirut, and later from Lebanon.

The Israeli name for the 1982 war was “Safety of Galilee.” Its declared goal was not to uproot the PLO, given its impossibility. Rather, as a final link in the effort aimed at ending the Palestinian military capabilities on the three fronts adjacent to Israel: the Jordanian front, which was accomplished in the year 1970, the Syrian front, which was accomplished by limiting, containing, withdrawing, and splitting, and the Lebanese front, by dispersing over many Arab geographies, which made the presence of the fighters on it a mere matter. Shelter no more.

Because this war was not aimed at ending the “PLO,” but merely to remove it from Lebanon, it coincided with the preparation of giant ships to evacuate the Palestinian fighters and their leader, Yasser Arafat, who chose Tunisian exile, as an expression of his dissatisfaction with the Assad regime, which Arafat had accused of hijacking the independent Palestinian decision-making process. 

The Palestinian warrior presence on the three fronts ended. In short: closing the military door to Arafat was coupled with opening the door to settlement, and this is what happened, without examining the time that this process took.

The biggest war, after the 1982 Lebanon War, is the current war on Gaza. Between the two great wars, many wars occurred with a smaller area and intensity.

The difference between the two wars, other than time and place, is the evacuation ships that the Americans provided through the efforts of their envoy, Philip Habib, and NATO took over their protection from where they set off to where they settled. As for Yasser Arafat, who considers victory merely his ability to raise his badge after the end of every war, he described sailing to the sea and staying away from the most important strategic incubator, as merely moving from one arena to another. However, he did not explicitly state that it was a transition from the geography of combat to the geography of settlement.

A deliberate focus was placed on the fact that the occupied territory is the only “backup” to the power of the “PLO”, as the effort was focused on the first intifada that brought power to some parts of the country.

The Gaza war did not require evacuation ships for the fighters who performed a legendary feat on October 7th, and who are fighting the strongest defensive war in history, between one of the strongest armies in the Middle East and the world, and the smallest geographical area, the most densely populated, and the poorest combat formation in terms of The modern armament that the opponent possesses, and uses all of it in this war.

Those gathered in the same sea that carried Arafat’s fighters from Lebanon were aircraft carriers that came to protect Israel from any danger to which it was exposed, and to deter the region so that it would remain free from Israel’s war on Gaza, for fear that any intervention would lead to the outbreak of a regional war that America does not want now. Not tomorrow.

The goals of the Israeli war, supported to the point of participation by the American administration, put Gaza under the risk of comprehensive destruction and mass killing, which no one knows how much it will reach until the war ends, and put the fighters before a choice in which there are no evacuation ships. But steadfastness and resistance.

What distinguishes this war from others is that its two sides do not have the luxury of retreat. Neither the resistance fighters are willing to raise a “white flag,” nor are the attackers thinking of getting rid of their agendas, which are based on an image of victory that convinces the Israeli public and removes the feeling of defeat from its soul.

The 1982 war, which ended with the evacuation of Palestinian fighters from the south and Beirut, brought them, after decades on the broken wings of Oslo, employees and security men.

As for the war of 2023, no one knows what paths it will take after it ends, but without evacuation ships and without white flags.

On Sunday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani announced 4 reservations from Tehran regarding the final statement of the Arab-Islamic summit regarding the war in the Gaza Strip, despite his praise of the tone and phrases used in the Riyadh Declaration.

Iranian media quoted Kanaani as saying, “Despite the strong text, it includes a number of paragraphs that the Islamic Republic of Iran has previously always had reservations about.”

The official IRNA news agency stated that Iran will send a memorandum to the Organization of Islamic Cooperation to include it in the final report, noting that Iran has “4 reservations.” Kanaani said in this regard: “We announced at the summit of senior officials that the Islamic Republic has reservations about the two-state solution, the 1967 borders, and the Arab Peace Initiative.”

Kanaani also expressed Tehran’s reservations regarding what was stated in the final statement about affirming that the Palestine Liberation Organization is the sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian people, and calling on the Palestinian factions and forces to unite under its umbrella, and for everyone to bear their responsibilities in light of a national partnership led by the Palestine Liberation Organization.

Kanaani said, “All Palestinians and Palestinian groups, including the Palestine Liberation Organization, represent the Palestinian people and have the right to fight the occupier and achieve self-determination in accordance with international laws.”

Kanaani reviewed 10 proposals, which Tehran said were presented by the Iranian President in his speech before the Islamic-Arab Summit, and said, “Most of these proposals that the Islamic Republic presented during the negotiation of the document were included in the final decision.”

The Iranian government spokesman’s media website said that Kanaani’s position “came in response to allegations that Iran had no reservations regarding the final statement of the Riyadh summit,” without providing details.

Immediately upon his return from Riyadh to Tehran, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi raised Tehran’s reservations about the two-state solution. He said in press statements at Mehrabad Airport: “We are in this meeting, and contrary to what some say about the future of the Palestinian issue, within the framework of the two-state solution, we have proposed a democratic solution based on a return to the voices of all Palestinians, including Muslims, Christians, and Jews, to determine their fate.”

Iranian officials usually raise the idea of holding a comprehensive referendum in the historic Palestinian territories, without recognizing Israel, and say that it is “the Iranian guide’s proposal that Tehran sent to the United Nations.” Recently, Iranian officials repeated these allegations, despite international and regional silence.

Raisi said, “The passage of time does not give legitimacy to Israel and its right to ownership.” Pointing out that his participation in the Riyadh Summit was important in two ways: The first is that the meeting was held in the presence of all Islamic and Arab countries, and the second is that the topic of the summit was the world and all its peoples.

He continued: “One of the basic differences in our presence and speech, compared to other participants, was that America was considered the primary culprit in these crimes.”

For his part, Ali Shamkhani, political affairs advisor to Iranian Leader Ali Khamenei, said that “the statement of 57 Islamic and Arab countries at the Riyadh summit is a necessary condition for effective action against the increasing crimes of the Zionist entity,” but he considered that “insufficient.”

The Israeli newspaper “Jerusalem Post” reported today that Benny Gantz, the minister in the Israeli War Council, opposes a possible political move brewing to overthrow Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to what was reported by the “Arab World News Agency.” The newspaper quoted Gantz as saying, in private interviews, that Netanyahu cannot be replaced in times of war.

The newspaper also quoted sources it described as close to Gantz that the talks aimed at overthrowing Netanyahu “are nothing more than an illusion.”

The results of the latest opinion poll showed that most Israelis are influenced by the war in Gaza to decide their political opinions. In addition to the overwhelming hostility to the Hamas movement and support for the strikes on the Gaza Strip, they demand the overthrow of the far-right government, reject Netanyahu, and prefer Gantz, the son of the military establishment, and consider him the responsible leader. Who should be handed the keys to government after the war.

Source: Alsharq Al-Awsat