Israel and Iran: Worse to come

There are those in Israel who believe that the reason why Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was not invited to visit Washington, unusually after every general election and the formation of a new government in Israel, is due to the current US administration’s intention to reach understandings with Iran regarding its nuclear program that Israel opposes. Government and opposition, in order to avoid the possibility that Netanyahu will take advantage of his visit to turn Congress and public opinion in the United States against this administration, as he did during the signing of the previous nuclear agreement in 2015.

Those who believe in this conclude, at the same time, that Washington is moving towards these understandings that would lead, among other things, and as confirmed by reliable American sources, to Iran’s agreement not to enrich uranium, beyond 60%, and to increase its cooperation with Iran. International nuclear inspectors, preventing its proxies from attacking American contractors in Iraq and Syria, refraining from selling ballistic missiles to Russia, and releasing American prisoners in its territory.

On the other hand, the United States will refrain from imposing new sanctions against Iran, stop confiscating Iranian oil shipments, and stop presenting draft resolutions against Tehran's nuclear program in the Security Council and the International Atomic Energy Agency.

The prevailing assessment among them is that there is a return to a past stage, the stage of signing the original nuclear agreement, which seemed, even for a short period, to have ended with Washington’s withdrawal from the agreement during the term of former President Donald Trump, and from it a different present is born that indicates a worse future.

The expectation of the worst is based on several justifications, the most prominent of which is that the strategy adopted by Israel to curb the Iranian nuclear program, mainly during Netanyahu’s term as prime minister of the Israeli government since 2009, was based on creating an international climate supportive of this curb, particularly from the United States and Europe.

Now, with the new steps of the US administration, the latest decisions of the International Atomic Energy Agency regarding Iran, and the latter's progress in its nuclear program, Israel cannot rely on others, and it has no choice but to push more and more with the option of relying on itself.

In the overall Israeli reading of the latest developments, the essence of the US-Iranian understandings that are taking shape is freezing the Iranian nuclear program in its current state, in return for stopping part of the economic sanctions imposed on Iran, mainly the release of Iranian funds seized in several countries. This means whitewashing Iranian breaches internationally in the nuclear field, granting Iran legitimacy, and certifying that it has a nuclear program with relatively high levels of enrichment, and at the same time, that it has large quantities of enriched uranium sufficient to manufacture several nuclear bombs.

The understandings will allow Iran to obtain tens of billions of dollars, which can be used to continue to accumulate military power, as well as to invest these funds to enhance what is described as "Iranian aggression in the Middle East and the world."

The expectation of the worst is also related to another fact that is read between the lines of statements issued by former senior Israeli military officials, including Brigadier General Oren Setter, who shortly before ended the duties of head of the strategic unit in the General Staff of the Israeli army, and confirmed, in the context of a press interview a few days ago , that Israel has military plans to attack Iran, but without taking into account the status of the United States, it will be difficult to implement them.

As for Major General Reserve Amos Gilad, the former head of the security-political department in the Ministry of Defense, he said at an international conference on energy affairs held in Tel Aviv last March that it is no longer a secret that Israel cannot attack Iran on its own and without the United States, because it will be exposed to a harsh reaction. The brave soldier quoted Schvik who said: "I will kill the enemies," and when they asked him, "What will happen if they kill you?", he answered them: "I did not think of that at all!"