ECONOMY

Mon 10 Apr 2023 6:29 pm - Jerusalem Time

The International Monetary Fund holds its spring meetings in light of reforms, crises and an economic slowdown

The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank begin their spring meetings Thursday, two days after the release of global growth forecasts on Tuesday, in light of a charged atmosphere between the need for reforms, successive crises and an economic slowdown.


The publication of the revised forecasts for the global economy on Tuesday will be the informal starting point for the meetings held by the two financial institutions at their headquarters in Washington , but IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has already hinted at the prevailing trend, with expected global growth below 3%.


Such an indicator does not include anything new, as the International Monetary Fund expected, in the latest revised figures issued in January, a growth of 2.9%, while the World Bank is more pessimistic, according to its president, David Malpas.


Malpass said during a conference call on Monday that "global growth is supposed to be weak this year, by 2 percent," in a slight increase from the previous figures of the World Bank, which predicted in January an increase of 1.7 percent for the year 2023.


However, what is new is that this trend may continue for a while, as the Fund expects global growth of no more than 3% at an annual rate until 2028, which reflects, according to Georgieva, "the weakest forecast we have issued in the medium term since 1990."


For its part, the World Bank expected at the end of March an annual global growth rate of 2.2% until 2030, which would make this period the weakest decade in terms of growth in more than forty years.


This reflects a significant slowdown at a time when the world is facing an unprecedented series of challenges, ranging from the repercussions of climate warming to the risks of global trade fragmentation and the possibility of a generalized debt crisis.


Faced with these problems, a number of countries, led by the United States, are increasingly calling for reform of international financial institutions.


US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen confirmed in an interview with Agence France-Presse that she "hopes to reform the tasks" of these institutions, especially the World Bank and its branches, so that "resilience to climate change, epidemics and conflicts" is included in their core.


Yellen added, "We hope to carry out other reforms during the rest of the year. This will be among the talks during the upcoming meetings of the International Monetary Fund, as well as during the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in Morocco" next October.


It is assumed that this development will begin with the regional investment banks and the World Bank under the administration of its next president, who is expected to be the American candidate, Ajay Banga, the only candidate for this position.


However, development should take place quickly, as Georgieva reminded that the environmental transformation of emerging and low-income countries will require a minimum of $1,000 billion per year in the coming years, an amount that international financial institutions currently do not have sufficient resources to provide.


And she stressed that it was imperative for "our wealthier members to help fill the gaps" in terms of fundraising, at a time when Banga intends to incentivize the private sector to join this effort after he takes office.


These topics will be among the main points of discussion during the spring meetings, provided that a first series of announcements will be issued on this occasion, especially related to the lending capabilities of the World Bank and its branches, Yellen told AFP.


However, this will not prevent the international financial institutions from raising a number of other points, foremost of which is the risk of destabilizing the financial sector if central banks increase interest rates additionally in the context of combating inflation.


On Thursday, Georgieva stressed that central banks should continue their efforts in this regard, stressing that they should "give priority to combating inflation, and then support financial stability through various tools."


Likewise, raising interest rates will increase the risks of a debt crisis in an increasing number of low-income countries, and the Director-General indicated that 15% of these countries suffer from a debt crisis, while 40% of other countries are close to this possibility.


To face such a situation, the international financial institutions need more resources, which their managements will try to confirm to the representatives of the countries in the coming days, in order to avoid a more difficult economic environment.

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The International Monetary Fund holds its spring meetings in light of reforms, crises and an economic slowdown

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