Israeli estimates suggest a return to fighting in Gaza within two months under the pretext of 'resistance weapons'

Hebrew media sources revealed Israeli security assessments indicating the possibility of a resumption of military operations in the Gaza Strip within two months, specifically before the legislative elections scheduled for next October. These estimates cite the possibility of Hamas being declared 'in violation' of the ceasefire agreement due to its adherence to its weapons, at a time when occupation forces continue their ongoing field violations.

Reports stated that the occupation authorities expect an announcement from the 'Peace Council,' headed by US President Donald Trump, stating that Hamas has not adhered to the signed agreements. This council oversees reconstruction efforts, while a national committee manages daily life affairs in the Strip during the current transitional phase, which is witnessing escalating tension.

Should this announcement be made, the Israeli army plans to operate militarily in areas not currently under its direct control, threatening a return to full-scale fighting. Political sources reported that the Director-General of the Peace Council, Nikolai Mladenov, had postponed declaring Hamas a party in violation of the agreement in response to pressure from international mediators to grant an additional opportunity.

The sources indicate that Mladenov granted a deadline that ends after three months, and if there is no fundamental change in the movement's stance on its weapons, the declaration will be officially activated. Israel considers the disarmament of the resistance a fundamental condition for any long-term arrangements, setting the end of the movement's rule and its disarmament as strategic goals that have not been fully achieved.

On another front, the Israeli military establishment has taken new precautionary measures by deploying an additional military division along the border with Jordan. This step comes in anticipation of a repeat of scenarios similar to the October 7 attack, and after nearly a thousand days since the outbreak of the major confrontation, reflecting the increasing security concerns of the occupation.

Politically, these developments coincide with the approaching Israeli legislative elections, which represent a real test for Benjamin Netanyahu's continued stay in power. His right-wing coalition faces severe internal crises and deep political divisions, as his camp seeks to maintain a majority of 61 seats in the Knesset amidst widespread criticism of his management of the war file.

For its part, leading sources in the Hamas movement confirmed that the resistance leadership succeeded in extracting recognition from mediators to exclude any formulations suggesting surrender. The movement clarified that the official response submitted in Cairo included an agreement to replace the term 'disarmament' with phrases related to 'confining, collecting, and storing weapons,' which is considered a thwarting of the fundamental Israeli demand.

In the context of international arrangements, reports revealed discussions held by the Peace Council regarding the timelines for what is known as the 'Day After' plan. The plan includes a US approach to proceed with gradual reconstruction in areas under Israeli control, even without a final agreement on Palestinian resistance weapons.

Estimates indicate that infrastructure preparation work in the targeted areas will take between three to six months, in preparation for the transfer of displaced Palestinians to them. These operations are concentrated in the so-called 'Yellow Zone,' which are the areas where the occupation army is deployed and constitute about 70% of the total area of the Gaza Strip, according to Netanyahu's statements.

Regarding the internal security file, proposals have been put forward for a new Palestinian police force to take over security tasks in the reconstructed areas, to be trained in Egypt. This force is expected to work alongside international stabilization forces that will be deployed later to ensure the implementation of the transitional phase provisions and prevent a return to military escalation.

On the ground, the occupation's violations of the ceasefire agreement signed in October 2025 continue, with the Ministry of Health in Gaza recording the martyrdom of 1059 people since then. These figures reflect the fragility of the current calm amidst the ongoing systematic Israeli targeting of civilians and vital facilities in various areas of the Strip.

This tension comes two years after a genocidal war launched by Israel, which resulted in the martyrdom of more than 73,000 Palestinians and the injury of over 173,000 others. The destruction affected about 90% of the civilian infrastructure, making the Gaza Strip a disaster-stricken area requiring enormous international efforts to restore life to normal.

Despite the US administration's announcement of the start of the second phase of the peace plan in mid-January, obstacles still hinder actual implementation. The main disagreements revolve around the timing of a full Israeli withdrawal, comprehensive reconstruction mechanisms, in addition to the complexities associated with the Palestinian weapons file, which the resistance refuses to relinquish.

In conclusion, the situation in the Gaza Strip remains open to all possibilities, between international efforts for calm and repeated Israeli threats to return to war. The coming days remain crucial in determining the course of the conflict, especially with the intertwining of Israeli electoral calculations with the complex security and humanitarian files in the Strip.

Israel expects the Peace Council to declare Hamas in violation of the agreement because it still retains its weapons, which could pave the way for a return to fighting.