No Agreement in Sight Between America and Iran, War Continues

As I have repeatedly mentioned in my previous articles, the war is still ongoing despite fragile truces and the lack of an agreement so far. I have explained more than once the nature of the renewed ancient conflict between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran, which effectively began after the fall of the Shah in 1979. American-Iranian relations during the Shah's era were strong and multifaceted on both political and economic levels, but they were completely severed after Khomeini came to power following the Iranian Revolution and the overthrow of the Shah through widespread popular protests.

The crisis escalated with the American hostage incident in Iran, followed by the severance of diplomatic relations and the closure of embassies between the two countries, a situation that persists to this day. Over the years, this conflict has evolved to take various forms of indirect political and military confrontation, leading to the open war witnessed in the region since the beginning of this year.

Iran's strong support for the "Hamas" movement since the events of October 7, 2023, and the continuation of this support during the war in Gaza, have also contributed to deepening the confrontation between Iran and its axis on one hand, and Israel and the United States on the other. Iran has also reinforced what is known as the unity of fronts by supporting its allies in the region, foremost among them Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and its loyal Iraqi factions, which possess an arsenal of missiles and drones that have contributed to expanding the scope of the conflict.

The view of this old-new war indicates that it is a long and complex war, with no decisive solutions appearing on the horizon. The conflict is not limited to political and security interests only, but extends to deep ideological and intellectual dimensions. On one hand, Iran adheres to its regional project and its vision based on the Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist, and on the other hand, Israel, with American support, seeks to end the influence of the Iranian regime and reduce its military and regional capabilities.

It has become clear that the war continues despite multiple truces and ongoing intermittent negotiations. Negotiations seem like a long series that has not yet reached its final episode, despite repeated talk about the possibility of concluding a peace agreement between the United States and Iran. Personally, I believe that the scene is too complex to be resolved by a quick agreement, and I do not yet find sufficient indicators to suggest that a final agreement is imminent.

This conflict is historically and ideologically rooted, and the slogans of mutual hostility between the two parties make it difficult to bridge the deep gap between them through a political agreement alone, especially in light of the human losses and destruction inflicted on Iran and Israel as a result of many years of confrontation.

Among the most prominent obstacles preventing a final agreement is the issue of Iranian influence in the Middle East, especially the issue of Iran's regional allies. The war is still ongoing between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, and threats remain in the Red Sea and the Arabian Gulf, whether through tensions related to the Bab al-Mandab Strait or the Strait of Hormuz, and the accompanying direct impact on global trade and energy security.

These developments have had a significant impact on the global economy, with oil prices experiencing sharp fluctuations, and transportation, shipping, and travel costs rising, contributing to increased inflation rates and higher prices for basic commodities in many countries around the world. Therefore, the effects of this war are no longer limited to its direct parties, but have extended to affect economies and peoples across different continents.

Countries in the region have also not been immune to the repercussions of this conflict, as many Arab countries face increasing security challenges as a result of ongoing military tensions. This has led to escalating concerns about the stability of the region and its political and security future.

Inside Iran, the picture appears more complex. There is a segment of Iranians who still support the current regime and reject any agreement that might be seen as a concession to the United States, while there are other groups demanding broader political reforms, and perhaps fundamental changes in the structure of the regime. This internal division increases the difficulty of making fateful decisions regarding the future of the relationship with Washington.

The Iranian nuclear file remains one of the most prominent outstanding issues in any potential negotiations, in addition to the issue of frozen Iranian funds and disagreements over the mechanisms for their release or utilization. Many questions also arise about Iran's readiness to reshape its regional relations or modify its policies towards its allies in the region in exchange for political and economic gains.

The most important question remains: Can an agreement be reached with Iran amidst the current complexities, potential disparities within governing institutions, and ongoing military confrontations in the region? And can the different parties overcome decades of conflict and mutual suspicions to reach a lasting settlement?

In conclusion, the status of the agreement remains unresolved, and the internal Iranian and regional scene appears highly complex. It is likely that the coming days will bring more military and political developments that will affect the course of American-Iranian relations and the future of the entire region. Nevertheless, I believe that the war is still ongoing, and the chances of reaching a comprehensive and final agreement are still distant at present, despite efforts to reach peaceful solutions.