Israeli Critic Warns of 'Fatal Illusions' in War on Iran: Unstated Goals and a Rolling Catastrophe

Israeli writer and critic, Ofer Ilani, focused on the unstated policies and intentions driving Israel towards military escalation against Iran. In a lengthy article, Ilani warned against slipping into what he described as fatal illusions, pointing out that these tendencies could lead to a rolling catastrophe whose effects would not be limited to Israel alone, but would extend to all countries and peoples of the region.

The writer questioned the real utility of targeting Iran at this time, reviewing a list of justifications circulated by political and media circles. These explanations included eliminating the nuclear threat, launching preemptive strikes, and even attempts to 'liberate' the Iranian people and impose a new political system that would be more friendly and aligned with Western and Israeli interests.

Ilani believes that the most realistic explanation lies in Tel Aviv and Washington sensing a state of weakness within the Iranian regime, which generated a conviction that there is a historic opportunity to reshape the Middle East. This logic, according to the writer, assumes that the regime in Tehran is on the verge of collapse and only needs a strong external push to fall completely and change the regional balance of power.

In a striking comparison, Ilani explained that this thinking is very similar to the logic that Hamas relied on before the October 7 attack, when it believed that Israeli internal division represented a moment of historical weakness. He noted that Israeli media at the time reflected a scene of disintegration and protests that paralyzed the state, which tempted adversaries to deliver a blow they thought would be decisive.

However, reality proved otherwise, as Israel quickly recovered and its internal front solidified in the face of the existential threat, a lesson the writer believes Israel and the United States have not learned in their dealings with Iran. Iran, despite its crises, may choose to entrench itself and fight when it finds itself cornered, just as Israel did in the face of recent threats.

Ilani criticizes the Israeli reading that describes the Iranian regime as absolutely weak, emphasizing that authoritarian regimes often rely on broad social support bases that defend their interests. He warned that the belief that peoples will welcome external intervention is an illusion that ignores the complexities of the social and political structure within the Islamic Republic.

The article points to another strategic error, which is exaggerating the portrayal of Iran as an 'octopus' that drives all conflicts in the region, and the belief that its removal will turn the Middle East into a paradise. The writer believes that this view is naive, because tensions in the region are structural and deep, and cannot be resolved simply by neutralizing one party, no matter its military strength or missile arsenal.

Ilani asserts that Iran's absence from the regional scene, should it occur, will not end conflicts but will create a vacuum that other regional powers, such as Turkey, may fill. The reasons driving wars in this region are inexhaustible, and healthy societies are those that try to coexist and manage crises instead of rushing into unnecessary optional wars that drain resources and lives.

The writer described the current policy as a 'rolling catastrophe' that sets a dangerous precedent in international relations, where countries are invaded or attacked amidst ongoing negotiations. This behavior, in his opinion, provides indirect justifications for other international powers to carry out similar operations in other conflict zones around the world, threatening global stability as a whole.

On the humanitarian and environmental level, Ilani noted that this war has already destroyed the lives of countless people in Iran, Lebanon, and the Gulf states, as well as causing severe environmental damage. These operations continue to destroy what remains of the balance within Israeli society, which has come to accept the idea of war as a natural and permanent state without considering its long-term consequences.

The critic believes that Israel's transformation into a state that wages wars simply because 'the opportunity is ripe' reflects a destructive mentality that disregards the devastation inflicted on individuals' lives and livelihoods. The political authority, in its pursuit of military victories, ignores the exorbitant human and social cost paid by citizens as a result of these impulsive decisions.

Ilani also criticized the alliance with the current US administration in this path, describing it as having an initial fascist tendency and being willing to sacrifice global stability for narrow agendas. He considered that political confusion is the only thing preventing some from seeing the real dangers of this alliance, which could lead the region to the abyss.

In conclusion of his analysis, the writer called for the necessity of restoring rationality in managing the conflict, away from the dreams of 'imagined salvation' promoted by the political leadership. He stressed that military force alone cannot resolve complex historical and geographical conflicts, and that continuing this approach will lead to further exhaustion for all parties involved.

The warnings raised by Ilani reflect a current within Israeli intellectual circles that fears the absence of a clear strategy and the reliance on military reactions. The question remains about the extent to which these voices can influence decision-making centers that seem to have made up their minds towards comprehensive escalation in the face of Iranian influence.

Israel's transformation into a state that wages optional wars simply because the opportunity is ripe entrenches a destructive mentality that disregards the lives and livelihoods of individuals.