Why are the Houthis hesitant to directly engage in the regional war against Iran?

Questions are escalating in political circles regarding the Houthi group's stance in Yemen on the ongoing war in the region, which erupted following intense American and Israeli airstrikes on Iran. Despite Tehran's allies in Lebanon and Iraq directly engaging in the confrontation, the Houthis, who possess a missile arsenal capable of threatening international navigation, have not yet officially announced their entry into the battle.\n\nThe Houthi group is a military and political movement rooted in northern Yemen, which fought years of guerrilla warfare before seizing control of the capital Sana'a in 2014. Since then, the group has developed advanced military capabilities in drones and ballistic missiles, enabling it to target vital facilities deep within neighboring countries in recent years.\n\nAfter the events of October 7, 2023, the Houthis began a series of attacks in the Red Sea targeting commercial vessels, declaring that this was in support of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. These attacks prompted a military response from the United States and Israel, who launched airstrikes on the group's positions in Yemen, further complicating the field situation.\n\nIn a recent speech, the group's leader, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, affirmed that his forces are on high alert and ready for military action at any moment dictated by field developments. However, observers note that the group has not issued an official statement of full involvement in the war, unlike other factions in the Iran-led axis.\n\nExperts on Yemeni affairs indicate that the Houthis, despite their political rapprochement with Tehran, have their own internal agenda and do not absolutely adhere to the Iranian Supreme Leader's authority. This doctrinal and political distinction gives the group room for maneuver away from direct external dictates, and makes its decisions linked to its interests within Yemen.\n\nEconomic pressures and difficult humanitarian conditions in Yemen play a crucial role in curbing Houthi escalation, as the group fears the collapse of the fragile truce in place since 2022. Entering a full-scale war could mean further destruction of the dilapidated infrastructure in areas under their control, threatening their internal stability.\n\nOn the other hand, concerns arise about violent international and regional reactions if the Houthis target global energy corridors, especially the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil passes. Any disruption to navigation in this vital artery would lead to global economic repercussions that could prompt major powers to launch an uncompromising military campaign against the group.\n\nIntelligence reports suggest that Iran may prefer to keep the Houthis as a reserve deterrent force, rather than exhausting them in an early confrontation. Iran's strategy relies on asymmetrical 'war of attrition,' using inexpensive drones to force opponents to use interceptor missiles costing millions of dollars.\n\nIn a related context, regional concerns have increased in countries such as Egypt, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia about the expansion of the conflict and its impact on energy supplies. These countries seek to strengthen their strategic cooperation to confront the security challenges arising from the escalation between Iran and Israel, and to try to contain any repercussions that may result from the intervention of non-state actors like the Houthis.\n\nAmerican sources claim that recent military operations have significantly reduced Iran's missile capabilities, which may affect the logistical support provided to the Houthis. However, the Houthis consistently deny being proxies for Tehran, asserting that they develop their weapons independently.\n\nAnalysts believe that the Houthis may choose to distance themselves from direct conflict amid increasing economic pressures in Yemen. The possibility of intense attacks from the United States, Israel, and even Saudi Arabia, represents a strong deterrent preventing them from full engagement in the war.\n\nConversely, some diplomats believe that the Houthis may carry out sporadic and limited attacks on targets in neighboring countries to increase pressure. These attacks, though limited, aim to show solidarity with Iran without provoking a comprehensive and destructive military response.\n\nEstimates indicate that the daily cost of American military operations in the region reaches one billion dollars, placing enormous financial pressure on Washington. The strategy of Iran and its allies aims to prolong the conflict and use the 'alliance trap' to exhaust Western military budgets.\n\nIn conclusion, the Houthis' position remains subject to field and political developments in the region, and their ability to balance their commitments to the 'axis of resistance' with their internal interests. Any decision to directly enter the war will change the rules of the game in the Arabian Peninsula and will have unpredictable global repercussions.\n\n"Our fingers are on the trigger regarding escalation and military action at any moment developments require."\n