Revolutionary Guard imposes Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran's Supreme Leader amid reports of his injury

High-level Iranian sources reported that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has imposed the selection of Mojtaba Khamenei as the country's new Supreme Leader, considering him the most capable figure to support conservative power policies at the current stage. This move disregarded the concerns of pragmatic advocates and political figures who expressed doubts about the mechanism of succession.

The sources stated that the Revolutionary Guard, whose influence has significantly grown since the outbreak of recent military confrontations, quickly overcame the opposition of senior religious figures. This pressure led to a delay in the official announcement of the appointment for several hours until the situation was decided in favor of the late leader's son.

Adding to the ambiguity surrounding the transition process was the absence of any official statement until Tuesday evening, despite nearly 48 hours passing since the selection process. These developments come at a sensitive time for the country due to an ongoing war that has resulted in more than a thousand Iranian casualties so far.

Three sources, including a former reformist official, indicated that the Revolutionary Guard's orchestration of Mojtaba Khamenei's rise to power might pave the way for the adoption of more aggressive foreign policies. It is also expected that the domestic scene will witness a tightening of security control and broader suppression of political opposition.

The sources expressed fears that the military establishment's dominance over the levers of the system would transform the Islamic Republic into a military state par excellence. Observers believe that this shift could reduce the regime's remaining popular support base and weaken its ability to confront complex external threats.

Despite Mojtaba Khamenei's extensive behind-the-scenes influence during decades of managing his father's office, he remains an enigmatic figure for broad segments of Iranians. Strong reports circulate about the possibility of him being injured in the American-Israeli strikes that targeted his father in late February.

A state television announcer reinforced these rumors by describing the new leader with the title 'Janbaz' or wounded veteran, referring to his injury during what Tehran describes as the 'Ramadan War.' No precise official confirmations have been issued yet regarding his health condition or the nature of his injury.

Analysts believe that Mojtaba's complete silence since the Assembly of Experts announced his election may be due to strict security reasons or to him receiving treatment. The 88-member Assembly of Experts had held an emergency meeting in an unknown location after its hall in Qom was bombed.

The full extent of the Revolutionary Guard's control became evident when President Masoud Pezeshkian was forced to retract an apology he had offered to Gulf countries regarding previous attacks. Reports indicated that IRGC commanders expressed strong anger at the president's statements, forcing him to change his stance immediately.

A knowledgeable source explained that the late Leader Ali Khamenei had the ability to balance power between the Revolutionary Guard and the political and religious elites. In the new era, it appears that the final say in strategic and fateful decisions will be directly and unprecedentedly in the hands of military leaders.

In a related context, researchers in Iranian affairs confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei will be entirely indebted to the Revolutionary Guard for his new position. This close association will necessarily mean his lack of the absolute and independent authority that his father enjoyed over the past three decades.

According to the Iranian constitution, the selection of the Supreme Leader falls exclusively within the prerogatives of the Assembly of Experts, but reality indicates the intervention of external pressure groups. While Rafsanjani was the 'kingmaker' in 1989, the Revolutionary Guard played this role in the last elections, and more explicitly so.

The Revolutionary Guard used the pretext of wartime conditions to impose a rapid election process and choose a candidate who adopts a hardline rhetoric against the United States. Members of the Assembly revealed that the legal quorum was barely met due to the inability of some members to attend because of the deteriorating security situation.

Leaked figures indicate that the decision did not receive the unanimity that the Revolutionary Guard had hoped for, as a number of clerics expressed their opposition to the principle of hereditary succession. This group feared that the inheritance of power would alienate the regime's popular support base and tarnish its religious legitimacy.

Mojtaba is indebted to the Revolutionary Guard for his position, and therefore will not have the same supreme authority that his father enjoyed.