After striking Iran... Will Turkey become the next target of the Israeli occupation?

Recently, a wave of strategic analyses and speculations has been escalating regarding the next destination of Israeli aggression, especially after the violent strikes that targeted the Iranian heartland. Political readings indicate that decision-making circles in Tel Aviv have begun to include Turkey and Egypt within the scope of future targeting, driven by fears of the growing regional influence of these countries.

These speculations are fueled by public statements from Israeli officials, with former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett describing the Turkish state as the 'new Iran'. Bennett considered President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to be a 'cunning and dangerous adversary', reflecting the extent of Israeli concern over Turkey's growing role in sensitive regional issues.

Observers believe that promoting the idea of targeting Turkey sometimes aims to push Ankara towards forced alliances or to pressure the Turkish people to change their government's direction. However, the expansionist ambitions of the Zionist entity and its desire to reshape the Middle East map according to its interests remain a reality that cannot be ignored, given the repeated statements about the 'Greater Israel' project.

Despite the harshness of Israeli rhetoric, the military balance of power imposes a different reality when it comes to a direct confrontation with Turkey. The Turkish state possesses the second-largest army in NATO, and has offensive land, sea, and air capabilities that far exceed what other parties to the conflict in the region possessed.

Ankara relies on advanced national systems in its defensive strategy, in addition to Russian 'S-400' missiles, making any military adventure against it fraught with risks. Informed sources realize that the Turkish army is capable of reaching the occupied territories not only via missiles but also through modern warships and fighter jets.

Politically, the Turkish approach differs fundamentally from the Iranian one, as Ankara adopts the 'two-state solution' option, which enjoys broad international consensus. This diplomatic stance makes it difficult for Israel to convince its Western allies of the necessity of targeting Turkey under the pretext of threatening global security, especially with ongoing diplomatic relations.

Geopolitics plays a crucial role in protecting Turkey, as it is located at the heart of the interface between East and West, and European capitals consider it a safety valve for the continent's stability. The European need for a strong and stable Turkey is increasing in light of the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war, and to prevent waves of displacement and illegal migration that threaten Europe's security.

In a related context, the recent war on Iran led to an earthquake in global energy markets, with oil prices jumping by more than 6%. Stock exchanges saw a significant recovery, with shares of companies such as 'Lockheed Martin' and 'Northrop Grumman' rising by record percentages, reflecting the military-industrial complex's benefit from regional tensions.

Reports indicate that RTX achieved massive sales of $88.6 billion during 2025, driven by increasing demand for defensive systems. This economic recovery for arms companies coincides with Israeli plans to form new alliances including India, Greece, and Cyprus to confront what it calls rising 'regional axes'.

Benjamin Netanyahu, who seeks to weaken his opponents and empower loyal forces in the region, is watching with concern the noticeable improvement in Turkish-Saudi and Turkish-Egyptian relations. This Arab-Turkish rapprochement represents an obstacle to Israeli ambitions to unilaterally determine the fate of the region and reshape its security alliances away from national constants.

Ankara is well aware of the extent of Israeli discomfort with its supportive stance on the Palestinian cause and the Hamas movement, and takes Zionist threats seriously. Accordingly, the Turkish leadership is working to close any potential security gaps, benefiting from the harsh lessons learned from the recent military confrontation between Israel and Iran.

Turkish policy, which moves away from the idea of 'exporting revolution' and relies on building partnerships with existing regimes, gives it greater flexibility in international maneuvering. Instead of cultivating militias, Turkey focuses on official economic and military cooperation, which enhances the legitimacy of its regional role and makes it difficult to isolate or target it.

Ultimately, the question of 'whose turn is next?' remains dependent on the ability of regional powers to coalesce in the face of expansionist projects. While Israel is busy trying to dismantle fronts one by one, Turkey appears to be in a military and political position that qualifies it to deter any attempt to cross the red lines affecting its national sovereignty.

The stability of the region largely depends on the balance of power, and any Israeli attempt to harm Turkey could lead to a comprehensive explosion whose consequences Washington or Europe cannot bear. Hence, the importance of Turkish strategic awareness in dealing with threats emerges, while continuing to strengthen self-defense capabilities as the only guarantee in a world that recognizes only power.

Turkey has become the 'new Iran', and Erdogan is a cunning and dangerous adversary who must be wary of.