Israeli Analyst: Iranian Regime on the Path to Collapse, Any Agreement with Washington a Lifeline

Military commentator Alon Ben David reported that the Iranian regime has entered a path of actual decline, an assessment that has become prevalent among most intelligence analysts in the occupation state. He indicated that the regime's survival is a matter of time, whether the United States launches a military attack or not, explaining that the regime will not be able to withstand continuous internal and external pressures, even if the collapse takes months or years.

Sources considered that any agreement Washington might reach with Tehran, whatever its content, would constitute a lifeline for a regime described as collapsing, likening the situation to the final stages of the Soviet Union's life, where external agreements kept a helpless regime alive for additional years. This assessment was recently conveyed to US President Donald Trump's envoys and senior officials in his administration.

The report noted that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, 87, may not realize the true state of his regime due to the circle of advisors surrounding him. It explained that Khamenei drifted in 2024 into a direct confrontation with the occupation, attacking it twice from Iranian territory, which enabled the Israeli air force to strip Iran of its defensive capabilities and leave it completely exposed.

Sources revealed that President Trump issued an order on January 14 to launch a targeted attack on Iran, but he backed down hours before execution after consultations with regional leaders. The consultations clarified that a limited strike would not change the regime's behavior but might endanger American interests, prompting Trump's team to prepare options ranging from liquidating the leadership to a broad campaign to strip the Revolutionary Guard of power.

The report pointed to the failure of the "Midnight Hammer" operation targeting nuclear facilities last June, as its results were disappointing, prompting Washington to prepare for broader action. The United States continues to reinforce its forces, despite planners realizing that the current buildup is insufficient to carry out a broad campaign, while Israel currently has more fighter jets ready to strike Iran compared to the current American presence.

Military plans face the obstacle of most regional countries, such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait, refusing to allow the use of their airports for launching attacks, while Jordan remains the only country willing to do so alongside aircraft carriers. Analysts suggest that Trump may give negotiations a final chance to gain international legitimacy before resorting to military action, which senior defense officials see as the most likely option to end the crisis.

Any agreement Washington might reach with Tehran will constitute a lifeline for a collapsing regime, similar to what happened in the final stages of the Soviet Union's life.