End of 'New START' Treaty: World Enters Nuclear Uncertainty After Last Restrictions Fall

Nuclear relations between Russia and the United States entered an unprecedented phase with the expiration of the 'New START' treaty, signed in 2010, yesterday, Wednesday, without a replacement agreement or formal talks to extend it. With the expiry of this treaty, the last legal restrictions that for more than half a century limited the size of the strategic nuclear arsenals of the world's two largest nuclear powers, which possess more than 80% of the global nuclear arsenal, have been lifted.

The 'New START' treaty formed the cornerstone of the nuclear arms control system, setting a strict ceiling on the number of strategic nuclear warheads that both Moscow and Washington could deploy, in addition to restrictions on ballistic missiles and strategic land, sea, and air bombers. With the absence of these restrictions, both parties are theoretically able to increase their arsenals, although any actual expansion would face technical and financial obstacles and take years. The treaty was signed in the Czech capital, Prague, in 2010 between then-US President Barack Obama and his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev.

The treaty limited the nuclear arsenals of both Russia and the United States to 1,550 deployable warheads, 30% less than the limits set in the 2002 agreements, and also imposed restrictions on the number of launch platforms and heavy bombers, which amounted to 800 for each party. The treaty included joint inspection mechanisms for military sites to ensure transparency between the two parties, and the renewal mechanism for the agreement was designed to be simple, requiring only the consent of both parties through a diplomatic note.

Negotiations to renew the treaty stalled during Donald Trump's presidency, who demanded China's inclusion in nuclear restrictions. In January 2021, the Joe Biden administration and Moscow reached an agreement to extend the treaty for five years until February 5, 2026. Relations between Moscow and Washington had reached their lowest point before the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, with escalating disagreements on multiple international issues.

On August 9, 2022, Russia announced the suspension of US inspections of its military sites, justifying this by the obstacles faced by similar Russian inspections in the United States. A meeting was planned in Cairo at the end of 2022 to resume inspections, but it was postponed indefinitely, with Moscow accusing Washington of "hostility." On February 1, 2023, Russia accused the United States of "destroying the legal framework" of the treaty.

This step comes after the United States withdrew during the Trump administration from two prominent international agreements, namely the Iranian nuclear deal and the "Open Skies" treaty, and Washington also backed out of the main provisions of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. Moscow announced its openness to future security talks but stressed that it would respond firmly to any threats, asserting that Washington ignored Putin's proposal to extend adherence to the restrictions for an additional year. In contrast, Washington indicated that President Trump would determine the next steps, with his desire to involve China. China described the end of the treaty as regrettable, while UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned of a critical moment for international security, at a time when the global nuclear stockpile had decreased to about 12,000 warheads in 2025.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that the world is going through a critical moment for international security, calling for negotiations on a new framework for nuclear arms control.