Poll: Israeli Opposition Needs Arab MPs to Prevent Netanyahu from Forming Government

A poll in Israel on Friday showed that the opposition will inevitably need Arab MPs in the Knesset if it wants to prevent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from forming a new government.

The poll was conducted by the private Lazar Institute, with a representative sample of 500 people and a margin of error of 4.4 percent, according to the Hebrew newspaper Maariv.

According to the poll results, if elections were held today, Netanyahu's supporting camp would get 50 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, while the opposition would get 60 seats and Arab MPs 10 seats.

According to Israel's basic system, forming a government requires at least 61 MPs' confidence in the Knesset (parliament).

However, most Israeli opposition parties say they will not ally with Arab MPs to form a government.

If the opposition does not get the required 61 seats, this means re-elections, similar to what happened several years ago when the Naftali Bennett-Yair Lapid government was formed in 2021 with the support of the United Arab List led by Mansour Abbas.

Officially, general elections will be held at the end of October 2026 unless early elections are held.

According to the results, the far-right Religious Zionism party led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and the opposition Blue and White party led by former Defense Minister Benny Gantz will not succeed in the elections if held today.

Based on the above, the poll results indicate the Israeli opposition's need for Arab MPs to topple Netanyahu's government.

On the other hand, the poll results indicate a division in the public regarding an inquiry committee into the failure of the security and military institutions to repel Hamas's attack on October 7, 2023, formed by the government, and support for a committee formed by the Chief Justice.

The Netanyahu government opposes forming this committee, fearing it will hold it responsible for the security and military failures previously acknowledged by Israeli officials.

According to the results, 62 percent of Israelis say they trust the results of an inquiry committee formed by Chief Justice Isaac Amit.

In contrast, 28 percent do not trust the results of such a committee, while 10 percent said they have no specific opinion.

The poll also showed a division regarding an inquiry committee that the Israeli government said it would form into the events of October 7.

21 percent said they would fully trust the results of this committee, 21 percent partial trust, while 46 percent said they would not trust its results, and the remaining percentage has no specific opinion.

On Wednesday, the Knesset (parliament) approved in a preliminary reading a bill submitted by Likud party MP Ariel Kallner, granting the government the authority to form a 'political committee' to investigate the events of October 7, with 53 supporters (out of 120) versus 48 opponents.

The Knesset still needs to vote on the bill in three readings for it to become effective law.

On October 7, fighters from the Hamas movement attacked military bases and settlements adjacent to the Gaza Strip, killing and capturing hundreds of Israelis, in response to 'the daily crimes of occupation for decades against the Palestinian people and their sanctities, especially Al-Aqsa Mosque,' according to the movement.

Israeli officials consider what happened on October 7 to represent the 'biggest intelligence and military failure' that caused significant damage to Israel's image and its army in front of the world.

Regarding Netanyahu's interrogation in the case known as 'Qatar Gate,' which accuses officials in his office of 'promoting Qatari interests,' 44 percent of Israelis surveyed today (Friday) supported this step, while 27 percent considered the interrogation unjustified, and 29 percent had no specific opinion.

For its part, Qatar denied the allegations against it in the case, considering them 'baseless,' while Netanyahu said what is happening is nothing but political persecution to topple the right-wing government.