Turkey's Rising Influence in Syria Raises Concerns in Israeli Circles

Israeli security and strategic circles do not stop monitoring Turkey's rising influence in the region, especially after the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria, which provided Turkey with an opportunity to establish a new regional system in the Middle East, and in this case, it must maneuver between influential powers and maintain its internal and international interests.

Einat Hober-Gruen, an expert in political geography and international crises, mentioned that "after a year of the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, Turkey is consolidating its position as a dominant regional power: militarily, politically, and in the energy field, reshaping the balance of power in the Middle East, and in close coordination with the new Syrian leadership led by Ahmed al-Shar'a, armored forces and about 200 Turkish soldiers entered northern Syria, and in the coming weeks, advanced support systems will enter, including armored vehicles, advanced air defense systems, drones, and precision missiles, expected to be deployed in Syria."

She added in an article that "Ankara, which pursues a firm foreign policy and continuously strengthens its military industries, views Syria as an important geopolitical axis: a strategic sphere of influence, and a central arena for establishing its position as a regional energy power, especially in the face of Israel, in addition to developing a ballistic missile program inspired by the Iron Dome air defense system."

She explained that "Turkey renewed its plan to purchase F-35 fighter jets from the United States, following the expected lifting of sanctions, and the return of the S-400 systems to Russia, which is part of a comprehensive policy to deepen logistical, political, and military support for the Syrian regime, and part of Ankara's government efforts to consolidate its position and regional influence, and the collapse of the Assad regime provided Erdogan with crucial opportunities to reshape his strategy, as he sees Syria as a valuable strategic asset, as a center for energy, and a security arena."

She confirmed that "this allowed Ankara to position itself as a regional energy corridor through a direct land route connecting energy fields in the Arabian Gulf with targeted markets in Europe, providing an effective and economic alternative, bypassing controlled routes, and avoiding routes controlled by rival countries, and examples are evident in the $7 billion agreement between Turkish, American, and Qatari companies to build natural gas and solar energy plants in Syria; and the renewal of the Qatari gas pipeline project through Syria, announced in 2009, and being implemented after geopolitical and economic delays."

She added that "Turkey seeks to integrate these projects into a broad network of regional projects for transporting gas, fuel, and electricity, as part of its efforts to become an international trade center and a pivotal energy center connecting the Middle East to Europe, and in addition to enhancing energy security, integrating the Turkish-Syrian electricity grid at a vital junction in the regional electricity network may contribute to enhancing energy security in the Middle East in the future, and in the gradual transition to clean energy."

She pointed out that "this step aims to deepen Ankara's relations with Washington, reduce Russia's and Iran's influence, and diversify its energy sources, such as the agreement to import gas from Turkmenistan, bridging the gap between Central Asian republics and European countries, where strategic cooperation in the field of civilian nuclear energy, including agreements to transfer small modular reactors and nuclear technology, serves as a counterweight to Moscow's moves and the activities of Russia's Rosatom company, which is currently building Turkey's first nuclear power plant at a cost of $20 billion."

She explained that "this cooperation is a crucial step towards achieving long-term energy security for Turkey, one of the largest economies in the region, with a GDP of $1.4 trillion, and Turkey currently relies on gas imports from 21 countries, where imported gas constitutes 99% of its consumption, especially from Russia 42.3%, Azerbaijan 20.3%, and Iran 10.7%."

She added that "this recently signed agreement between Turkey's Botas company and America's Mercuria company to purchase liquefied natural gas worth $43 billion for 20 years has contributed to increasing the American market share, and giving Ankara significant geopolitical leverage against Moscow and Tehran."

She added that "the expected decline in Russian gas imports with the end of the agreement between the two countries in 2026 will lead to weakening Russia's position as a major gas source, and in contrast, it may enhance Turkey's position as a regional energy power, especially in the face of Tel Aviv, within the framework of the Eastern Mediterranean project, and the gas agreement with Egypt, and the emerging cooperation between Turkish and American energy companies may expand to include Iraq, Syria, and Libya, for example, through connection to the existing Arab gas pipeline network that connects Syria, Jordan, and Egypt, in addition to the South Caucasus."

She predicted that "the peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and the opening of the 'Zangezur Corridor' will contribute to strengthening the connection between Central Asia and Europe, enhancing Turkey's position as a vital link in the regional supply and energy chain, as it imported 5.2 million tons of natural gas, an increase of 30% compared to 2024, a figure that shows the rapid growth of the Turkish energy market, and Ankara's determination to achieve energy independence in the coming years."

She pointed out that "in the context of containing the Kurdish entity, Turkey's strengthening of its relations with the Trump administration allows it to exploit its military power, as a country possessing one of the strongest armies in the Middle East, and the second largest in NATO, and its strategic location, to assume a pivotal position between energy, security, and geopolitics, and the increasing military presence in northern Syria serves as a tool to influence regional power balances, enhances its role as a major player in the post-war reconstruction process, and its participation in other international initiatives to rebuild conflict zones in Gaza, Lebanon, and Libya."

She cautioned by saying that "despite its huge investments in energy infrastructure and reconstruction of civilian areas in Syria, which may burden its economy, suffering from 30% inflation and increasing debt pressures, Ankara views this as a long-term investment to enhance its position, polish its regional image, and achieve its global vision, but this expansion exacerbates diplomatic tensions and security risks with its rivals: Russia and Iran, due to the damage to their influence in the energy field; Israel, Egypt, and the UAE, due to competition over energy routes and regional influence; and also with Greece and Cyprus, in light of gas projects in the Eastern Mediterranean, and maritime border disputes."

She noted that "Turkey's control over northern Syria provides it with a security buffer zone against Kurdish forces, and prevents the formation of an independent entity along its borders, and at the same time, Syria grants it a unique economic and strategic advantage, represented in the ability to reduce its long-term dependence on traditional gas exporters, and limit Moscow and Tehran's influence on its energy market, even in the face of risks of disruptions in global supply chains."

She added that "strengthening the partnership with Washington, alongside the gradual reduction of dependence on Moscow, makes Ankara the preferred strategic partner for the former in energy markets, and these steps enhance its economic and energy stability, support its regional position, and expand the scope of Turkish liquefied natural gas distribution to Europe and North Africa, and Washington, the world's main supplier of liquefied natural gas, provides Turkey with a reliable, diverse, and competitive alternative, forming a fundamental pillar in consolidating its energy independence, and deepening its influence in the new geo-economic system emerging on the international scene."

In a related context, Israeli General Amit Yagur criticized in an article the policies of the American envoy Tom Barrack in Syria, considering that he is naturally influenced by Turkey where he resides, and this produces a very dangerous situation for Israel.

Yagur attacked Syrian President Ahmed al-Shar'a, warning that Syria is rapidly approaching the Iranian model, and nevertheless, the United States aims through the security agreement to set limits and restrictions on the use of Israeli force, without affecting al-Shar'a's authority.

He believed that the security agreement between Syria and Israel would be tantamount to official endorsement of al-Shar'a's regime, stressing that such an agreement cannot be reached at the present time, due to new Syrian demands, resulting directly from American policy.

He affirmed that Israel is trying to stop Syria from being an agent for Turkey, and that Turkey has no presence in Syria, in addition to preventing Syrian forces from reaching the border area, preventing attacks on the Druze, and stopping the transformation of Syria into an Islamic state.