Divergent Views on Turkey's Role in Gaza: Washington Optimistic, Ankara Seeks to Enhance Influence

In an analysis published by an Israeli newspaper, journalist Tzvi Barel reviewed the statements of Tom Barak, the US Special Envoy to Syria and Ambassador to Turkey, which were characterized by clarity and candor during the Milken Institute Summit in Abu Dhabi.

Barak did not hesitate to describe the situation in Lebanon as difficult, considering the disarmament of Hezbollah to be impossible. He pointed out that if he were an advisor to Netanyahu, he would advise him on an important matter, but he ruled out its occurrence due to a lack of trust.

This important matter is Netanyahu's agreement to Turkey's participation in an international force to achieve stability in Gaza and its reconstruction. Barak believes that this participation may be a turning point in Turkish-Israeli relations, stressing the possibility of reaching an agreement between them.

However, this American optimism was not fully reciprocated by Ankara. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan affirmed that his country continues its efforts to implement the second phase of the Trump plan for Gaza, pointing to Washington's pressure on Israel to accept Turkey's participation in the international force. However, Tel Aviv is showing strong reservations about this matter, while Cairo is not showing enthusiasm for deploying Turkish forces in the sector.

In light of these complexities, there is a growing realization in Washington of the need for a foreign force capable of encouraging hesitant countries to send their forces to Gaza. An official in the Turkish Justice and Development Party reveals that Turkey's participation may open the door for the participation of Azerbaijan and Indonesia, which have strong relations with Ankara, but prefer not to start, while Turkey does not mind doing so.

Barak points to the importance of the strong relationship between the Turkish and American presidents, stressing that Turkey and Qatar intervened in the final stages of negotiations to release the hostages, which contributed to reaching a decision point.

The rapprochement between Erdogan and Trump is not limited to the Gaza file, but also includes Ankara's efforts to resolve the Russian S400 defense system crisis, which led to Turkey's exclusion from the F35 fighter development project. Trump seems inclined to return Turkey to the project, despite Israel's concerns.

Barel recalls Trump's praise of Turkey's policy in Syria, in contrast to Israel's view, which sees Turkish influence as a threat. Erdogan and Trump agree on the future of Syria as a unified state, and seek to integrate the Syrian Kurdish forces into the new Syrian army. Trump also rebuked Netanyahu for the recent military operation in the Golan.

Erdogan, along with Sisi and the Emir of Qatar, signed the "Trump Declaration for Lasting Peace and Prosperity," making Turkey a "guarantor" in the American plan for Gaza. Washington has become responsible for Israel's behavior, while Doha and Ankara bear responsibility for Hamas's behavior.

With the disarmament of Hamas becoming the biggest obstacle, Qatar and Turkey have been tasked with finding an innovative solution. Turkish and Palestinian sources say that the proposal includes the formation of a "Peace Council" headed by Trump, the appointment of a Palestinian civilian board of directors, and the entry of Palestinian police officers into Gaza with the support of UN forces. But this requires an agreement with Hamas that includes not using weapons, without actually disarming them.

The Turkish Foreign Minister believes that disarming Hamas early is unrealistic, because it is conditional on a Palestinian administration of the sector and a permanent ceasefire. Ankara is betting that its participation in the international force may be a guarantee for the safety of Palestinian and international crews, on the grounds that Hamas does not want to confront Turkish forces.

In contrast, an Israeli newspaper offers a different reading, where an expert on Turkish affairs believes that Turkey considers itself a "pivotal state" that played a central role in completing the "Trump deal" to return the abductees.

He adds that Ankara believes in a historical right to play a central role in the region, so it insists on being present in every political or security equation.

The expert points out that Turkish influence is real, citing Hamas's residence in Qatar and Turkey, and the decisive role of Turkish-Qatari pressure that pushed the movement to cooperate with the Trump administration. He confirms that Turkish ambition goes beyond Gaza, as Ankara intervenes in most of the world's wars, plays the role of mediator in Africa, and works to consolidate its image as a rising superpower.

However, the expert believes that the Turkish leadership's position towards Israel is hostile, as the Turkish president and foreign minister accuse Israel of violating the ceasefire and trying to sabotage the second phase of the agreement. He says that this approach makes the chances of Israel accepting Turkey's participation in the administration of Gaza very slim.