Washington conveys to Baghdad an Israeli warning and an open American cover for potential attacks on Iraq.

In a development that once again reflects the imbalance of power in the region and the encroachment of Israeli influence at the expense of the sovereignty of Arab states, political and diplomatic sources in Baghdad revealed that the U.S. special envoy, Tom Barak, conveyed a clear warning to Iraqi officials that Israel may carry out strikes inside Iraq against militias it accuses of sympathizing with or coordinating with Hezbollah. However, the major irony lies not in the threat itself, but in the way Washington is handling this behavior, as it has transformed it from a "condemned" party to one that is offered political and intelligence facilitation without accountability.

Diplomacy of Warning: Israeli Threats in an American Tongue

According to the sources, Barak arrived in Baghdad with a harsher tone than what Arab capitals are accustomed to from American officials. He conveyed an Israeli message stating that Iraq has become, in Tel Aviv's view, "a battleground at the heart of the confrontation equation," and that any activity by factions that Israel sees as an extension of Iran or Hezbollah will be met with precise strikes within Iraqi territory.

It is noteworthy that Washington, instead of rejecting Israeli behavior or warning of its serious implications for regional stability, chose to be a facilitator and enabler of it, raising questions about Iraq's position in American calculations and the extent to which the United States respects the sovereignty of its allies that it claims to support.

An Iraqi diplomatic source confirmed that Barak's tone was "strikingly sharp," and that the message seemed more like a political dictate than an exchange of information. Despite Baghdad's denial of any activities by factions that pose a threat beyond the country's borders, the American warning placed the government in front of a new equation: either comply with the pressures from Washington and Tel Aviv, or face military escalation that directly affects Iraqi sovereignty.

Threatened Sovereignty... and Washington as the Political Cover

Iraqis are well aware that Israel has previously carried out airstrikes inside Iraq, most of which it has not officially acknowledged, while the United States has remained silent or provided indirect justifications. With the latest warning, Washington appears to be reproducing the same equation: unconditional support for Israel, even at the expense of Iraq's stability, sovereignty, and internal security.

The Iraqi government, caught between Washington and Tehran, understands that any Israeli strike—even if limited—will exacerbate internal tensions, provide armed factions with a pretext for escalation, and embarrass Baghdad in front of public opinion, which views Israeli attacks as a direct insult to national sovereignty. Nevertheless, Washington shows no sensitivity to this reality, continuing its role as a "biased mediator" that gives Israel the green light in all directions.

Israeli Calculations: Iraq as an Open Arena with No Political Cost

From an Israeli perspective, the calculations are clear: any Iraqi faction that may provide logistical or intelligence support to Hezbollah is a threat that must be preemptively struck. However, what gives Tel Aviv the audacity to expand its operations beyond its borders is a firm belief that Washington will cover it no matter what it does, and that any violation of Iraqi sovereignty will be met with the usual American justification or silence.

Israel, which follows a "preventive strike" strategy, does not find itself obliged to explain or justify anything, as long as the United States guarantees it complete political cover in the Security Council, in the Western media, and in military coordination systems.

The American message indicates that Washington now sees Iraq as part of the Iranian influence network that it fears will expand, but the irony is that Washington uses this assessment to justify Israeli attacks instead of containing the tension. This shift in the American approach towards Iraq reveals the fragility of its relationship with its allies in the region, where pressure and threats have become substitutes for traditional diplomacy.

Moreover, the current Iraqi moment, marked by the weakness of state centrality in the face of armed faction influence, leaves the country exposed to any external intervention. American policies since 2003 have contributed to creating an unstable security environment, and today Washington uses the results it helped create to justify Israel's encroachment within Iraqi territory.

As for Israel, it views Iraqi factions as an extension of Iranian regional capabilities and seizes any opportunity to impose new equations by force. If Israel were not politically insulated from the American side, it would not have taken a single step towards carrying out military operations outside its borders.

This situation raises an existential question for Iraq: Can it decide its fate outside the will of major powers? Can it prevent Israel from turning it into a free arena for settling regional scores? The answer depends on Baghdad's ability to rebuild state institutions and its capacity to reject American dictates that no longer consider Iraq's interests or security.

Iraq Faces an Unjust Equation

Experts believe that the