A short note on disarming Hamas

I have been conducting some discussions with several Hamas leaders about the issue of disarming. I have been asked many times by people from all over the world, including lots of Israelis and Palestinians if I believe that Hamas will give up its weapons.  The short answer is yes, the longer answer follows:

The main reason why I say yes is because Hamas has no real support in Gaza any more. With the exception of those who might still be receiving some money form Hamas, or making money because of Hamas, the overwhelming number of Gazans would be very happy never to see anyone from Hamas ever again.  My understanding is that most Gazans blame Israel for all of the death and destruction, but they hold Hamas responsible. It is because most Gazans seeing Hamas as responsible for what has happened to them, many of the remaining Hamas fighters with weapons have said that they need to hold on to their weapons to protect themselves and their families from angry Gazans. This should not be underestimated as Gazan struggle everyday just to survive. 

In one of my very recent chats with a Hamas leader (not Ghazi Hamad) I asked: Would Hamas turn over their weapons to a new Palestinian police force in Gaza working under the new technocratic Palestinian governing committee? Would Hamas agree to "freeze" the weapons which is the term that was used by Hamas in the negotiations? In Northern Ireland, the armed groups turned over their weapons to an agreed third party, who in their presence buried the weapons and poured cement over them, this way the other side in the conflict could not ever use the weapons that they gave up. Could something like this be possible - on the condition that Israel fully withdraws to the international border?

This was his answer: 

• “We are not obligated now to provide a position specifically regarding the weapons.”
• “In the first stage, we implemented everything that was required from us, while the occupation violated and obstructed all the issues required from it.”
• “Therefore, any discussion about the second stage must be a single comprehensive package, not one isolated point.”
• “We have previously said that weapons must be regulated, and that only the weapons of the government or the official administration in Gaza should appear, along with a long-term truce.”

There is an implied message within that Hamas will give up their weapons, or at least the “offensive weapons” as American mediators have described the process. But if that will happen there are also political conditions that must materialize on the ground.  This makes a lot of sense.  Hamas will never admit defeat. Hamas declared victory after the war ended. Hamas will never surrender to Israel and will never surrender their weapons to Israel. 

I would like to refer to a written exchange I had with Lord John Alderdice who was directly involved in the Northern Ireland peace process and in the decommissioning of weapons there. (John Thomas Alderdice, Baron Alderdice, is a Northern Ireland politician. He was the Speaker and a Member of the Northern Ireland Assembly for East Belfast from 1998 to 2004 and 1998 to 2003, respectively). Lord John wrote: 

The first thing is that the decommissioning of weapons in Ireland took place after there was a comprehensive political agreement - the 1998 Belfast/Good Friday Agreement.  There is no such agreement between in Israel/Palestine.  The Trump set of propositions is little more than a wish-list.  The second thing is that the decommissioning took place in a context where the British Government had agreed a detailed process of de-militarization with the Irish Government and that was monitored by us in the IMC.  There is no such agreement by Israel and the IDF.  Thirdly, organizations are rarely prepared to seriously consider decommissioning their weapons when they feel that they still need them for self-defence.  This is clearly relevant to Hamas currently.

These are all very relevant points and when placed in the Israel-Gaza context, or the Israel-Palestine context we should understand. As long as there remains an Israeli military presence inside of Gaza, or as long as Israel control the points of entry and exit to and from Gaza it is very unlikely that Hamas will agree to enter into any process of disarmament of decommissioning of its weapons.

These are the minimal conditions that I believe are necessary to fulfill in order to get Hamas to comply with the demand of Israel and the United States (and most Gazans) to turn over their weapons to a third party (be it Palestinian or a foreign commission):

• There must be a functioning Palestinian government in Gaza responsible for the day-to-day affairs as specified in the Trump plan and the UNSC Resolution.
   
   
• There must be a new Palestinian police/security force deployed and working subordinate to the new Palestinian Gaza government.
   
   
• There must be the deployment of the International Stabilization Force serving as a physical buffer against Israeli attacks or incursions into Gaza.
   
   
• The blockade on Gaza must come to an end. Goods and people must be allowed to enter and to exit Gaza as people do all around the world – with the necessary security precautions, but Gaza must be open to the world and open for Gazans.
   
   
• There must be a full Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza to the international border. (My understanding is that Hamas will agree to a no-entry security perimeter along the Israel-Gaza border, even with short to kill orders, but without any physical presence of Israeli troops inside of Gaza. 

In some of my communications with Hamas leaders, some have said that a broader political process towards ending the occupation (of 1967) must be happening for Hamas to give up its “armed resistance”.  I am not sure that this is what the Americans understand from their conversations with the mediators.  There is no doubt that the mediators will have a very important role to play vis-à-vis Hamas to ensure that there is a process of disarmament. I don’t believe that any Israeli government will agree to a situation where Hamas continues to hold offensive weapons in Gaza and to maintain an underground infrastructure which could be rebuilt and further threaten Israel. 

I don’t think that any conversations have been conducted with Hamas on the continuation of their armed struggle in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. As we begin to enter into Phase 2 of the ceasefire agreement, the entire focus has been on Gaza. Hamas sees the struggle for liberation going beyond Gaza and anyone who follows the Hamas telegram accounts, especially Hamas West Bank (in Arabic) can easily see that nothing has changed for Hamas regarding the use of violence against Israelis in the West Bank. Hamas has little political and military infrastructure in the West Bank and many of the known Hamas leaders from the West Bank are in prison – either in Israel or in the Palestinian Authority prisons. Nonetheless, the West Bank command of Hamas is operated from outside and financial and other material resources make their way into the West Bank. Also, although public support for Hamas in the West Bank is on the decline, as long as the horrible situation continues to exist in the West Bank (more than 1000 Palestinian killed in the past two years by violent settlers and soldiers, some 130 new settlement outposts built in the past two years, thousands of olive trees destroyed by violent settlers, homes, cars and private Palestinian property being burned and attacked on a regular basis and Palestinian private land being confiscated by settlers with IDF support, a collapsing economy and a Palestinian banking system on the verge of collapse as a result of policies dictated by Israel’s Finance Minister Smootrich, and more), Hamas and other groups supporting violence against Israel will continue to exist. 

In summary – the decommissioning of Hamas weapons is possible but it will take more time and other elements of the ceasefire agreement must be implemented in order for that to happen. The issue of Hamas disarmament is part of a wider political process that must happen in order for Hamas to cooperate with the process of turning over it weapons.