Are Israel's estimates for the occupation of Gaza City accurate? What is expected militarily?

The military expert Colonel Nidal Abu Zaid stated that the Israeli occupation army's estimates regarding the occupation of Gaza City are inaccurate and not based on a precise intelligence assessment, suggesting that Israeli forces may drown in the city's quagmire.

Abu Zaid explained during the military analysis segment that the estimates are conflicting regarding the duration of the operation, as the occupation army estimates it will last a full year, while the political level estimates it will take three months.

Moreover, the estimates regarding the human loss bill are also inaccurate, as the military expert referred to the recent operation carried out by the resistance in the Zeitoun neighborhood southeast of Gaza City, which resulted in casualties and injuries.

In this context, Israeli Channel 13 reported that the army's estimates indicate a possibility of 100 soldiers being killed in the military operation to occupy Gaza.

The channel clarified that the army will conduct its operation in Gaza City without believing in its feasibility, and that the security agencies agree with the army on this.

Additionally, the occupation army requires a period of time to summon 60,000 soldiers, while Israeli conscription law stipulates that the period should not be less than a month and a half, according to Abu Zaid.

Channel 12 had reported that the army will begin on Tuesday to recruit 60,000 reservists in preparation for continuing the fight in Gaza City.

The channel added that initially, five reserve brigades consisting of 15,000 soldiers will be summoned, who will be deployed on the borders of Lebanon and Syria and in the West Bank to enable regular soldiers to fight in Gaza.

According to the military expert, this discrepancy in numbers and estimates explains why the Israeli security and military levels recommend the necessity of going to the negotiating path to conclude a prisoner exchange deal, as they are the ones who understand the extent of the complexities and losses, among other factors.

Based on this, Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir faces three compounded crises: "the required," "the imposed," and "the imposed upon him."

Zamir is asked to implement a military operation and achieve objectives, while he is imposed a number of reservists he cannot recruit due to about 40% reluctance to join the service, and he also cannot simultaneously accommodate all this number.

The military expert predicted that this reality would impose a new equation on the conflict, indicating that the fighting would be based on a political rather than a military equation, which would lead to significant confusion and the occupation army sinking into the quagmire of Gaza City.

Days ago, Haaretz newspaper reported, citing the occupation army, that 900 soldiers and officers had been killed since the Al-Aqsa Flood battle on October 7, 2023.