The military analyst stated that Israel is preparing this week to expand its military operations within the city of Gaza, as part of what is known as Operation "Gideon's Chariots 2," but field and political indicators suggest a high likelihood of failure for the operation.
The analyst pointed out that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has begun to craft a narrative that prepares public opinion to hold the Israeli army, led by Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, responsible for any potential failure, rather than taking political responsibility himself.
He explained that the army has decided to mobilize most of its regular forces in the Gaza Strip, while about 60,000 reservists will be called up in the coming days, half for secondary tasks and the other half to compensate for the regular forces deployed in the West Bank and along the border.
The analyst indicates that this distribution reflects the high command's caution in moving forward, as they are aware that the operation is controversial within Israeli society and do not wish to risk tens of thousands of reservists inside Gaza.
Regarding the Zeitoun neighborhood, the analyst confirmed that the southeastern area of the city has been witnessing violent confrontations for days, amid efforts by the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) to turn the neighborhood into a resistance stronghold similar to the Shuja'iyya neighborhood in 2024.
He added that the city has suffered extensive destruction, yet Hamas still retains a network of tunnels and a command structure capable of exhausting the army, despite a decline in its offensive capabilities against the Israeli depth.
Concerning the army's approach, the analyst noted that the Chief of Staff has issued clear instructions to the forces to advance slowly and cautiously, relying on intensive shelling to minimize human losses among the soldiers.
He also added that naming the operation "Gideon's Chariots 2" is merely an attempt to reproduce previous operations and does not reflect a new strategy, which contradicts the political message Netanyahu is trying to promote.
The analyst believes that the gap between the army's assessments and Netanyahu's rhetoric could lead to a crisis with Washington, after the latter convinced the U.S. president that the operation would lead to a "decisive" outcome against Hamas's last strongholds.
Conversely, the army does not see this decisive outcome as imminent, emphasizing that delays in field progress may lead Netanyahu to shift blame onto the army and its Chief of Staff for any failure.
The analyst considered that close associates of Netanyahu have already begun leaking accusations against Zamir, alleging procrastination in execution, which he viewed as a preemptive step to prepare public opinion for the possibility of failure and to shift responsibility from the political level to the military.
On a humanitarian level, the analyst points out that Palestinian civilians pose an obstacle to the operation, as only a few thousand residents of Gaza have left, while many prefer to stay despite the difficult conditions.
He clarified that the continued presence of civilians in the heart of the battles will complicate the operation on the ground and increase international pressure on Israel.
In the same context, the analyst confirmed that the army does not observe any signs of Hamas's collapse or loss of will to fight; on the contrary, the movement is expected to continue exhausting Israeli forces and attempting to carry out abductions.
He explained that the difficulty for Hamas lies in its capabilities, while the difficulty for Netanyahu is in reconciling his promises to the Americans with what the army can achieve on the ground.
The analyst concluded his analysis by affirming that the likely scenario is that the ground operation will falter without achieving "decisiveness," amid increasing American and international pressures.
The likely scenario is that the ground operation will falter without achieving "decisiveness," which will give Netanyahu the opportunity to blame the army.





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Haaretz: Netanyahu will hold the Chief of Staff responsible for the failure in Gaza.